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I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasi
by thimabi 6mo ago
I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything?
The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.
- logicchains 6mo ago[flagged]
- VectorLock 6mo agoCertain no negative externalities from these shenanigans here, let people do what they want to do regardless of how it harms others.
- logicchains 6mo ago[flagged]
- hrimfaxi 6mo agoWhy do airports collect weather data at all? Just for fun?
- hrimfaxi 6mo agoShould it be legal to be able to bet when someone will die?
- logicchains 6mo agoIt's already legal for two individuals to bet when someone will die. It's illegal to murder someone; we don't need extra laws to stop that.
- hrimfaxi 6mo agoIsn't it obvious that allowing betting on something creates economic incentives to influence that thing?
- knappe 6mo agoThe article articulated this enough, I thought but I guess not. They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. And they're not just gambling. They're also gaming the system to make money on it. This goes far beyond 'just gambling'.
- logicchains 6mo ago>They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. If that's illegal they should be prosecuted for that. Luxury goods create incentive for theft, but nobody suggests luxury goods stores should be banned to reduce the amount of theft.
- Eisenstein 6mo agoCould you regulate the sale of luxury goods meaningfully without having negative impacts on necessary markets? Can you say the same about prediction markets?
- coryrc 6mo agoI'll steelman it: previously there was no monetary gain to be made by messing with weather sensors. A market like this creates one, creating an externality on owners of weather sensors, on enforcers and courts to investigate and prosecute novel crimes. Administration of taxes on such markets to compensate all the disparate factions harmed by the externalities exceeds the amount which could be collected, so banning is the only proper solution.
- filoleg 6mo ago> A market like this creates one, creating an externality on owners of weather sensors, on enforcers and courts to investigate and prosecute I am only half-joking, but this gave me an idea for how to finally get the local courts+LEO near me to get off their asses and actually do some law enforcement and prosecuting - I just gotta create prediction markets on the crimes occuring in public in my neighborhood.
- aorloff 6mo agoThere's a reason we don't have markets to bet on whether someone will be killed, or to create a profit motive for people close to the White House to spill the beans. There's plenty of legal avenues for the next administration to outright shut these firms down
- standardly 6mo agoI recommend thinking about the issue for yourself. It's not hard to see why prediction markets are subject to abuse. Market regulation has little to do with morality or "moral rights". Would I be correct in assuming you're an Ayn Rand fan?
- VectorLock 6mo agoOur zeitgeist is now "the grift is the goal."
- bloppe 6mo agoYep, you can bet on anything. Mike Selig is in charge of regulating it, and he's pretty zealous about suing any state regulators trying to exercise their right to regulate gambling. I think the days of the wild west are clearly numbered, but one guy with a burning passion and a big agenda (and the backing of Don Jr) can get a lot done in the meantime
- thenewnewguy 6mo agoAnything on the site? Yes. Anything at all? No - Polymarket themselves make the markets (and I think they have some partners that can make markets as well, but point is some random user cannot make a market).
- qurren 6mo ago> some random user cannot make a market You absolutely can market make on Polymarket. The barrier to entry is actually extremely low; you can do it from an AWS instance in Dublin (the closest non-geo-restricted region to the Polymarket exchange), and don't need the kind of infra that is needed to market-make on US stocks. Retail can absolutely do it on anything crypto-based. In order to market make, you just need to price probabilities better than everyone else. That's it. On Wall Street on the other hand it has come down to FPGAs and free space microwave links because fiber optics' index of refraction causes a ~31% reduction in the speed of light. If you don't have millions of dollars you can't get into that game. Over-regulation cas resulted in this space being only accessible to the ultra-rich.
- neonstatic 6mo agoI'm worried it will set the tone against all markets and trading, which would be very regrettable.
- alaudet 6mo agoThe problem is that the genie is out of the bottle, even if you try to regulate it away it pops up in offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. The ease with which polymarket can be manipulated is infinite because there are so many different random things you can bet on. It's a sign of our times and I don't think there is much that can be done about it by anyone.
- vizzier 6mo ago> offshore jurisdictions and uses crypto. This vastly increases the barrier to entry for the normal person though. Is your position that just because laws don't work 100% of the time we shouldn't bother with them?
- alaudet 6mo agoI didn't say that, you said that.
- Dylan16807 6mo agoThey didn't say you said it. But wow what a useless way of conversing that is. They asked because it's unclear what you're implying. So could you please clarify if you think regulation would be useful? Or should be done despite being futile? Or shouldn't be done? I can only think of those three answers, is there another?
- alaudet 6mo agoI think smart policy would be a good start. I just made a comment on the sign of our times. I could have worded my one line reply better. I do think it will be difficult to regulate as I don't see a political appetite to do so. Maybe some countries will get it right.
- vizzier 6mo agoFor the record, I do agree with this perspective at least from an external observer of the US. Many places already regulate these types of gambling much better. What I mostly took issue with is what I read to be a resolute throwing up of the hands of any action being useless. It is indeed unfortunate that the level of corruption in the current US administration likely precludes any action on it in the current term.
- lostlogin 6mo agoWatching interviews with the CEO is cringe material to an extraordinary level.
- Svoka 6mo agoAs Ukrainian I find bets if some city would be captured - peak degeneracy. People are being sent to die or protecting their homes should not be someone bet.
- whatisthiseven 6mo agoUnlikely regulators will do anything given Trump's son is involved with both companies.
- e28eta 6mo agoJohn Oliver just did a segment on prediction markets. https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4 https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4 Turns out the US federal regulator is not doing their job, and is actively trying to prevent US states from imposing regulations.
- danny_codes 6mo agoThe Trump admin, abdicating their duties? How unexpected /s
- pocksuppet 6mo agoThey're banned in the USA and Europe, so you can't "just" make an account - you have to use a VPN.