4 ms·

> Oregon's kicker law is a textbook example of bad economic policy, sadly You must be talking about non-economic textbooks, otherwise this makes no sense.

lotsofpulp 6mo ago
Oregon has a biennial budget, so some Oregon employee predicts how much money Oregon will earn over the next 2 to 3 years (which is basically impossible to do), and then Oregon leaders have to come up with a spending plan equal to or less than that revenue estimate. However, Oregon's costs have no relation to the revenue that the state predicted it would get, so it is constrains the solution space when unforeseen costs or cost trends happen. For example, Oregon predicts a certain amount of revenue, but gets 3% more than the predicted revenue, but that is because prices for everything went up 3% more than expected, now Oregon has less money than it needs to pay its expenses (since it has to return any revenue which was 2% over the estimate). Oregon is the only jurisdiction I have ever heard of with this kind of strict refund law, and its rigidity seems to be the main issue, along with the 2 year forecast requirement (since forecasting even 1 year is hard enough).
- nxobject 6mo ago
  I appreciate you adding your experience here – I'm curious, just with the amount of knowledge you have of Oregon's fiscal oddities (e.g. biennial budgeting): are you an Oregonian yourself? I feel that I'm part of a sector of Oregonians that, because of our mini-recession and constant cuts, is suddenly having to learn about a lot of fiscal oddities that are finally catuching up with us. (e.g. how centralized education funding is, for example.)
  - lotsofpulp 6mo ago
    No, I am a Washingtonian, though. And I have a masochistic interest in government budgets and funding mechanisms.
    - nxobject 6mo ago
      Ha! At this point it's timely. What are your thoughts on the income tax? (I'm on the boarder of Washington, so I'm amused ot observe the arbitrage between Oregon's sales taxes, and Washington's income taxes.)
      - lotsofpulp 6mo ago
        Earned income tax seems counterproductive to attracting young, productive people, which Oregon seems to need, badly. California and New York are counterexamples, but California and New York have unique features that offset the downsides of paying earned income tax. I just like not having to file a personal state tax return, the federal one is enough work as is.

lotsofpulp 6mo ago

Oregon has a biennial budget, so some Oregon employee predicts how much money Oregon will earn over the next 2 to 3 years (which is basically impossible to do), and then Oregon leaders have to come up with a spending plan equal to or less than that revenue estimate. However, Oregon's costs have no relation to the revenue that the state predicted it would get, so it is constrains the solution space when unforeseen costs or cost trends happen. For example, Oregon predicts a certain amount of revenue, but gets 3% more than the predicted revenue, but that is because prices for everything went up 3% more than expected, now Oregon has less money than it needs to pay its expenses (since it has to return any revenue which was 2% over the estimate). Oregon is the only jurisdiction I have ever heard of with this kind of strict refund law, and its rigidity seems to be the main issue, along with the 2 year forecast requirement (since forecasting even 1 year is hard enough).

nxobject 6mo ago
I appreciate you adding your experience here – I'm curious, just with the amount of knowledge you have of Oregon's fiscal oddities (e.g. biennial budgeting): are you an Oregonian yourself? I feel that I'm part of a sector of Oregonians that, because of our mini-recession and constant cuts, is suddenly having to learn about a lot of fiscal oddities that are finally catuching up with us. (e.g. how centralized education funding is, for example.)
- lotsofpulp 6mo ago
  No, I am a Washingtonian, though. And I have a masochistic interest in government budgets and funding mechanisms.
  - nxobject 6mo ago
    Ha! At this point it's timely. What are your thoughts on the income tax? (I'm on the boarder of Washington, so I'm amused ot observe the arbitrage between Oregon's sales taxes, and Washington's income taxes.)
    - lotsofpulp 6mo ago
      Earned income tax seems counterproductive to attracting young, productive people, which Oregon seems to need, badly. California and New York are counterexamples, but California and New York have unique features that offset the downsides of paying earned income tax. I just like not having to file a personal state tax return, the federal one is enough work as is.