3 ms·

So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairl

by dalyons 6mo ago

So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable

Jblx2 6mo ago
There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...
- rebolek 6mo ago
  Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die. Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.
  - barbazoo 6mo ago
    Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.
    - WD-42 6mo ago
      This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.
    - MandieD 6mo ago
      I've seen this on the Autobahns: what were just parking spots with unattended bathrooms are becoming little charging stations. Since I don't have an EV yet, I've not stopped at one to see how high-speed the chargers are, but at the very least, I assume that 10-15 minutes would be enough to get you somewhere more efficient/pleasant to wait for a full charge.
  - idontwantthis 6mo ago
    Charging stations will only need to be on highways if cities are sensible and build slow charging infrastructure (aka normal wall sockets) in parking spaces. Urban gas stations will be a thing of the past.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    Presumably a lot of people will charge at home which significantly cuts down the number of stations needed or the traffic to those stations. For example, I have 2 gas stations within a mile of my home. They stay pretty busy because people around me constantly need to fill up. I, on the other hand, basically never visit either of those stations since I switched to an EV. I charge at home. If everyone around me switched to EVs, those stations could not stay in business. There's a grocery store in the same area which makes anything those stations offer obsolete. Those are the majority of gas stations that die with a mass switch over to EVs. There's a gas station for my hometown without an attached convenience store with 300 people there. There's no way that station stays in service if a significant portion of the community switches to EVs. It already struggles to be profitable as is (I know the owner).
    - otikik 6mo ago
      That might be the case in places where most people live in single-family homes with dedicated garage. Where I live (Spain) that's not the case at all - our towns are very dense. People in big cities tend to live mostly in flats (Europe's highest elevators-per-capita). Even people in the countryside, where it's more common to have a 1-family homes, often don't have a dedicated garage.
  - Jblx2 6mo ago
    I'm using the definitions: - Gas Station = retail outlet that sells and dispenses gasoline and other petroleum-based fuel products - Charging station = place to charge your EV Could be an interesting long bet. Will the number of retail locations selling gasoline in the UK in the year 2045 be higher or lower than in 2026?
    - Symbiote 6mo ago
      In 2045 petrol stations will be well on the way the being about as rare as places selling paraffin or special racing car fuel today. I don't see how this is an interesting bet. No new petrol car will have been sold for 10 years. Places selling fuel for large lorries etc will last a bit longer, but these are already a fraction of the total.
  - decimalenough 6mo ago
    A place where you can take a break and grab a coffee is called a cafe, not a gas station. Also, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly pushing out batteries capable of 1000+ km, you'll be able to charge fully at home for increasingly long road trips.
- throwaway85825 6mo ago
  Is AVgas in a death spiral? It's survived as a niche product for a long time.
  - rootusrootus 6mo ago
    To what extent is avgas effectively subsidized by the existence of gas cars?
  - Jblx2 6mo ago
    Does anyone have reliable data on the number locations selling avgas in say, the U.S. compared to the number of locations selling automobile grade gasoline?
deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]

by dalyons 6mo ago

So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable

Jblx2 6mo ago

There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...

rebolek 6mo ago
Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die. Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.
- barbazoo 6mo ago
  Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.
  - WD-42 6mo ago
    This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.
  - MandieD 6mo ago
    I've seen this on the Autobahns: what were just parking spots with unattended bathrooms are becoming little charging stations. Since I don't have an EV yet, I've not stopped at one to see how high-speed the chargers are, but at the very least, I assume that 10-15 minutes would be enough to get you somewhere more efficient/pleasant to wait for a full charge.
- idontwantthis 6mo ago
  Charging stations will only need to be on highways if cities are sensible and build slow charging infrastructure (aka normal wall sockets) in parking spaces. Urban gas stations will be a thing of the past.
- cogman10 6mo ago
  Presumably a lot of people will charge at home which significantly cuts down the number of stations needed or the traffic to those stations. For example, I have 2 gas stations within a mile of my home. They stay pretty busy because people around me constantly need to fill up. I, on the other hand, basically never visit either of those stations since I switched to an EV. I charge at home. If everyone around me switched to EVs, those stations could not stay in business. There's a grocery store in the same area which makes anything those stations offer obsolete. Those are the majority of gas stations that die with a mass switch over to EVs. There's a gas station for my hometown without an attached convenience store with 300 people there. There's no way that station stays in service if a significant portion of the community switches to EVs. It already struggles to be profitable as is (I know the owner).
  - otikik 6mo ago
    That might be the case in places where most people live in single-family homes with dedicated garage. Where I live (Spain) that's not the case at all - our towns are very dense. People in big cities tend to live mostly in flats (Europe's highest elevators-per-capita). Even people in the countryside, where it's more common to have a 1-family homes, often don't have a dedicated garage.
- Jblx2 6mo ago
  I'm using the definitions: - Gas Station = retail outlet that sells and dispenses gasoline and other petroleum-based fuel products - Charging station = place to charge your EV Could be an interesting long bet. Will the number of retail locations selling gasoline in the UK in the year 2045 be higher or lower than in 2026?
  - Symbiote 6mo ago
    In 2045 petrol stations will be well on the way the being about as rare as places selling paraffin or special racing car fuel today. I don't see how this is an interesting bet. No new petrol car will have been sold for 10 years. Places selling fuel for large lorries etc will last a bit longer, but these are already a fraction of the total.
- decimalenough 6mo ago
  A place where you can take a break and grab a coffee is called a cafe, not a gas station. Also, with Chinese manufacturers increasingly pushing out batteries capable of 1000+ km, you'll be able to charge fully at home for increasingly long road trips.
throwaway85825 6mo ago
Is AVgas in a death spiral? It's survived as a niche product for a long time.
- rootusrootus 6mo ago
  To what extent is avgas effectively subsidized by the existence of gas cars?
- Jblx2 6mo ago
  Does anyone have reliable data on the number locations selling avgas in say, the U.S. compared to the number of locations selling automobile grade gasoline?

deleted 6mo ago

[deleted]