8 ms·

The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs, and it sounds like the government incentive mechanism is working, albeit in a roundabout way.

by eterm 6mo ago

diath 6mo ago
> The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil.
- triceratops 6mo ago
  New EVs become used EVs that poorer people can afford. Poor people don't buy new cars. New EVs being expensive is not a poor person problem.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - hdgvhicv 6mo ago
    The problem is a 50kWh battery in a car is worth more as a battery than a typical £1500 car. The lowest end of the market won’t have electric cars unless the batteries are shagged (early Leafs) And given how insanely cheap petrol is (15p a mile, so £450 for a low mileage runaround) the savings even if electric was free and they weren’t introducing a 3p/mile charge isn’t there.
    - cogman10 6mo ago
      A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon. That can be up to a £4000 job (£2500 on the low end). And, as it turns out, a brand new 50kWh battery costs around £4000 to manufacture. Used will be cheaper.
      - quibono 6mo ago
        With most modern ICE cars everything but the transmission and the engine will fail before those two go out. Also: I don't think that's the usual case. Plenty of sub 2k cars that will happily keep driving for years (I've had 3 such cars). ~700 mark is where you start seeing 300k mile "finish-them-off"-type cars.
        cogman10 6mo ago
        Plenty of EVs will drive for years as well (so long as they have a good thermal system for the battery). So I'm not sure what point is being made. Saying "It costs a lot of money to replace the battery" doesn't mean much as the battery, even if it has 70% of it's original capacity, is still perfectly functional. Very much the same as the engine which also costs a lot of money to replace.
        quibono 6mo ago
        I just thought the parent comment was unfair to ICE cars to make the EV proposition sound better. I'm a fan of EVs but they are still more expensive to buy. That said, very cheap ICE cars have a sweet spot where any damage to engine / transmission / clutch+flywheel often means replacing the entire car since the repair cost exceeds the market value of the car.
        g8oz 6mo ago
        I heard plenty of horror stories involving modern cars and their transmissions and engines.
        moepstar 6mo ago
        That, for one - also: people constantly are overconfident in their ability to judge the status of really anything in a ICE car. Newsflash: you simply cannot "readout" the status of an engine, transmission, ... But you can/could/should for a battery. Now, someone hammer that into peoples brains...
      - joe_mamba 6mo ago
    - XorNot 6mo ago
      Battery prices are still falling though, it's just demand is enormous. But I works fully expect China to start having "compatible replacement packs" being built once the volume is there to support it. A logical future market is battery-refurbished EVs, just a question of where the crossover point is.
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
- dalyons 6mo ago
  So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable
  - Jblx2 6mo ago
    There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...
    - rebolek 6mo ago
      Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die. Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.
      - barbazoo 6mo ago
        Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.
        WD-42 6mo ago
        This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.
        MandieD 6mo ago
        I've seen this on the Autobahns: what were just parking spots with unattended bathrooms are becoming little charging stations. Since I don't have an EV yet, I've not stopped at one to see how high-speed the chargers are, but at the very least, I assume that 10-15 minutes would be enough to get you somewhere more efficient/pleasant to wait for a full charge.
- medler 6mo ago
  This has already happened in Norway, where 96% of new cars sold are EVs. They didn’t ban combustion but they did support adoption with subsidies and other incentives
- gerdesj 6mo ago
  "Gas" prices are hiking up here - its about £1.90 per litre of diesel at the moment and petrol isn't much less. In contrast, my cheaper 'leccy rate is now about 25% less at 5.2p per kWh than it was. Electricity is weird in the UK - its pinned to the price of gas and is currently (lol) rather expensive "on peak" at 27.87p per kWh and there is a day standing charge of 47.71p. That's from Octopus. We also have a petrol car - an elderly Renault Clio. It does just run and run and is pretty economic for a pretty shagged out ICE. My EV is cheaper to run, by far. However, its unlikely the battery will last 20 odd years. I haven't yet sat down and done some whole life costs for ICE vs EV yet. My Saic MG4 can do 300+ miles on a 100% charge of its 78kWh battery. After two years, it still manages to exceed its WLTP (with care, when required) and I quite like the ridiculous 0-30 acceleration etc.
sega_sai 6mo ago
The problem is that there is not enough infrastructure for EVs. If you can't charge at home (e.g. you live in a flat), it is hard to live with an EV and it's much more expensive than the ICE.
- dalyons 6mo ago
  And that will never change?
- sigio 6mo ago
  Local government can quickly change that, if they get their act together. Here in the Hague, there's literally thousands of public chargers available on the city's residential streets. Coupled with the fact that the charging-price is city-mandated at a fixed rate (currently around 35ct/kwh), this gives a perfectly fine solution for most people. (I can charge at home, for 20ct/kwh currently, so that's even nicer)
  - throwaway85825 6mo ago
    35ct/kwh is highway robbery.
    - m463 6mo ago
      would be nice if california had such discounted prices... :)
      - throwaway85825 6mo ago
        Jesus, I had no idea California was that bad. How is that even possible? Our rate is 15c/kwh.
        rootusrootus 6mo ago
        > How is that even possible? It's PG&E for the most part, and their huge liability payout for burning a city to the ground due to skipping maintenance on their distribution lines. Some places in California have prices closer to the US average.
nslsm 6mo ago
The goal is that if you’re poor you can’t own a car.
laughing_man 6mo ago
It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers. The math starts to get ugly as EVs become a larger percentage of the mix. ICEs will be priced out of the market, but there won't be anyone left to subsidize the EVs. In short, it sounds like buying a car is about to get a lot more expensive in the UK.
- rootusrootus 6mo ago
  > It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers. Given how long we have all been subsidizing ICE buyers, I think it is fair to spread the love around a little.
  - graemep 6mo ago
    How are ICE buyers subsidised?
    - bzzzt 6mo ago
      Some countries literally subsidize gasoline, but even if your country does not it probably supports oil companies with tax breaks ('creating jobs'). There also are lots of untaxed externalities like global warming and exhaust pollution.
      - graemep 6mo ago
        Untaxed externalities are very different from subsidies. We do not generally tax externalities. I live in the UK where we pay heavy taxes on fuel and we pay higher taxes on vehicles with higher CO2 emissions.
        bzzzt 6mo ago
        They are not so different: it's the same private/public money dynamic but money flowing in different ways. For consumers it doesn't really matter if it's a tax or 'mandatory levy'. For instance: in the EU it's mandatory to pay for disposal of consumer goods, which is priced in with every purchase. That's as close as a 'disposal tax' as you can get.

The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs, and it sounds like the government incentive mechanism is working, albeit in a roundabout way.

by eterm 6mo ago

The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs, and it sounds like the government incentive mechanism is working, albeit in a roundabout way.

diath 6mo ago

> The goal is to migrate everyone to EVs This won't happen unless they outright ban non-EV vehicles which is unlikely considering how many people are still using old cars and cannot afford new cars, how many car enthusiasts are there, and not to mention potential lobbying from big oil.

triceratops 6mo ago
New EVs become used EVs that poorer people can afford. Poor people don't buy new cars. New EVs being expensive is not a poor person problem.
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- hdgvhicv 6mo ago
  The problem is a 50kWh battery in a car is worth more as a battery than a typical £1500 car. The lowest end of the market won’t have electric cars unless the batteries are shagged (early Leafs) And given how insanely cheap petrol is (15p a mile, so £450 for a low mileage runaround) the savings even if electric was free and they weren’t introducing a 3p/mile charge isn’t there.
  - cogman10 6mo ago
    A £1500 car is £1500 because it's expected you'll need to replace the engine or transmission pretty soon. That can be up to a £4000 job (£2500 on the low end). And, as it turns out, a brand new 50kWh battery costs around £4000 to manufacture. Used will be cheaper.
    - quibono 6mo ago
      With most modern ICE cars everything but the transmission and the engine will fail before those two go out. Also: I don't think that's the usual case. Plenty of sub 2k cars that will happily keep driving for years (I've had 3 such cars). ~700 mark is where you start seeing 300k mile "finish-them-off"-type cars.
      - cogman10 6mo ago
        Plenty of EVs will drive for years as well (so long as they have a good thermal system for the battery). So I'm not sure what point is being made. Saying "It costs a lot of money to replace the battery" doesn't mean much as the battery, even if it has 70% of it's original capacity, is still perfectly functional. Very much the same as the engine which also costs a lot of money to replace.
        quibono 6mo ago
        I just thought the parent comment was unfair to ICE cars to make the EV proposition sound better. I'm a fan of EVs but they are still more expensive to buy. That said, very cheap ICE cars have a sweet spot where any damage to engine / transmission / clutch+flywheel often means replacing the entire car since the repair cost exceeds the market value of the car.
      - g8oz 6mo ago
        I heard plenty of horror stories involving modern cars and their transmissions and engines.
        moepstar 6mo ago
        That, for one - also: people constantly are overconfident in their ability to judge the status of really anything in a ICE car. Newsflash: you simply cannot "readout" the status of an engine, transmission, ... But you can/could/should for a battery. Now, someone hammer that into peoples brains...
    - joe_mamba 6mo ago
  - XorNot 6mo ago
    Battery prices are still falling though, it's just demand is enormous. But I works fully expect China to start having "compatible replacement packs" being built once the volume is there to support it. A logical future market is battery-refurbished EVs, just a question of where the crossover point is.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
dalyons 6mo ago
So 20 years from now, all the old gas regular people cars have aged out. You’re left with what, 1 or 2% of enthusiasts cars? Seems like success to me, and fairly inevitable
- Jblx2 6mo ago
  There will undoubtedly be a death spiral of sorts when it comes to gas stations, refineries, etc. where they become fewer and farther between as less people buy fuel. And that makes it more expensive and inconvenient, so more people buy EVs, which in turn...
  - rebolek 6mo ago
    Death spiral to gas stations? why? EV cars need to charge somewhere (and on long trip it can’t be at home) and people need to take a break and grab a coffee sometime too. They will change, sure, but certainly not die. Refineries will be fewer but we do need another products from them also.
    - barbazoo 6mo ago
      Chargers can be anywhere. They are at grocery stores, parking lots, restaurants, I can see the need for a dedicated re fuel station to disappear when charging is ubiquitous.
      - WD-42 6mo ago
        This is what people don’t get. Charging just means parking. The idea of dedicated charging stations where you stand around doing nothing, maybe buying a candy bar, really only make sense in the context of a fuel which is not literally already everywhere.
      - MandieD 6mo ago
        I've seen this on the Autobahns: what were just parking spots with unattended bathrooms are becoming little charging stations. Since I don't have an EV yet, I've not stopped at one to see how high-speed the chargers are, but at the very least, I assume that 10-15 minutes would be enough to get you somewhere more efficient/pleasant to wait for a full charge.
medler 6mo ago
This has already happened in Norway, where 96% of new cars sold are EVs. They didn’t ban combustion but they did support adoption with subsidies and other incentives
gerdesj 6mo ago
"Gas" prices are hiking up here - its about £1.90 per litre of diesel at the moment and petrol isn't much less. In contrast, my cheaper 'leccy rate is now about 25% less at 5.2p per kWh than it was. Electricity is weird in the UK - its pinned to the price of gas and is currently (lol) rather expensive "on peak" at 27.87p per kWh and there is a day standing charge of 47.71p. That's from Octopus. We also have a petrol car - an elderly Renault Clio. It does just run and run and is pretty economic for a pretty shagged out ICE. My EV is cheaper to run, by far. However, its unlikely the battery will last 20 odd years. I haven't yet sat down and done some whole life costs for ICE vs EV yet. My Saic MG4 can do 300+ miles on a 100% charge of its 78kWh battery. After two years, it still manages to exceed its WLTP (with care, when required) and I quite like the ridiculous 0-30 acceleration etc.

sega_sai 6mo ago

The problem is that there is not enough infrastructure for EVs. If you can't charge at home (e.g. you live in a flat), it is hard to live with an EV and it's much more expensive than the ICE.

dalyons 6mo ago
And that will never change?
sigio 6mo ago
Local government can quickly change that, if they get their act together. Here in the Hague, there's literally thousands of public chargers available on the city's residential streets. Coupled with the fact that the charging-price is city-mandated at a fixed rate (currently around 35ct/kwh), this gives a perfectly fine solution for most people. (I can charge at home, for 20ct/kwh currently, so that's even nicer)
- throwaway85825 6mo ago
  35ct/kwh is highway robbery.
  - m463 6mo ago
    would be nice if california had such discounted prices... :)
    - throwaway85825 6mo ago
      Jesus, I had no idea California was that bad. How is that even possible? Our rate is 15c/kwh.
      - rootusrootus 6mo ago
        > How is that even possible? It's PG&E for the most part, and their huge liability payout for burning a city to the ground due to skipping maintenance on their distribution lines. Some places in California have prices closer to the US average.

nslsm 6mo ago

The goal is that if you’re poor you can’t own a car.

laughing_man 6mo ago

It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers. The math starts to get ugly as EVs become a larger percentage of the mix. ICEs will be priced out of the market, but there won't be anyone left to subsidize the EVs. In short, it sounds like buying a car is about to get a lot more expensive in the UK.

rootusrootus 6mo ago
> It sounds like ICE buyers are subsidizing EV buyers. Given how long we have all been subsidizing ICE buyers, I think it is fair to spread the love around a little.
- graemep 6mo ago
  How are ICE buyers subsidised?
  - bzzzt 6mo ago
    Some countries literally subsidize gasoline, but even if your country does not it probably supports oil companies with tax breaks ('creating jobs'). There also are lots of untaxed externalities like global warming and exhaust pollution.
    - graemep 6mo ago
      Untaxed externalities are very different from subsidies. We do not generally tax externalities. I live in the UK where we pay heavy taxes on fuel and we pay higher taxes on vehicles with higher CO2 emissions.
      - bzzzt 6mo ago
        They are not so different: it's the same private/public money dynamic but money flowing in different ways. For consumers it doesn't really matter if it's a tax or 'mandatory levy'. For instance: in the EU it's mandatory to pay for disposal of consumer goods, which is priced in with every purchase. That's as close as a 'disposal tax' as you can get.