3 ms·

I don't think "material math" applies to things that are huge luxury/status symbol purchases. Otherwise we'd all be driving 2005 corollas. And as status-symbol

by zug_zug 6mo ago

I don't think "material math" applies to things that are huge luxury/status symbol purchases. Otherwise we'd all be driving 2005 corollas. And as status-symbol or identity statement, being anti-oil (or anti beholden on America, Russia, Iran, etc) seems like a pretty good one.

measurablefunc 6mo ago
I am not making any political statements, it's all basic physics & material science: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEkIh2PcSYE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEkIh2PcSYE
- zug_zug 6mo ago
  I've watched plenty of youtube videos, I'm not gonna watch a 10 minute video from somebody I've never heard of and treat is as a good source. It's bad form to post that here multiple times instead of just citing whatever actual published sources. Especially when EV vehicles are already working and taking over the market.
  - ZeroGravitas 6mo ago
    The man in the video has a history of questionable claims, for some fairly obvious reasons: https://www.desmog.com/mark-p-mills/ https://www.desmog.com/mark-p-mills/ > Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and a Strategic Partner at Cottonwood Venture Partners, an investment firm focused on technological advancements in oil and gas production
    - wao0uuno 6mo ago
      Edit: Just checked the guidelines so: Man, what a terrible person. I hope he steps on a lego block.
- onraglanroad 6mo ago
  There was no physics in that. It was 10 minutes of incoherent rambling. How do people find this convincing? Is it a new fashion?
- ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
  Global copper reserves are about 980 million tonnes, with 1.5 billion tonnes of identified resources and 2024 mine production of about 23 million tonnes. A conventional car uses about 23 kg of copper and a battery-electric car about 83 kg, a difference of roughly 60 kg per vehicle. With more than 17 million EVs sold in 2024, that implies about 1.4 million tonnes of copper embodied in those vehicles, or about 1.0 million tonnes more copper than comparable conventional cars would have used; applying the same assumptions to the current global passenger-car fleet implies roughly 120 million tonnes total or 87 million tonnes incremental copper for an all-BEV fleet. Separately, the IEA says that under today’s policy settings and announced projects, copper faces an implied 30% mined-supply shortfall in 2035, while expanded recycling could reduce new mine needs for copper by about 35% by 2050. USGS copper reserves / resources / mine production https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 landing page https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025 https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025 IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – trends in electric car markets https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/trends-in-electric-car-markets-2 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/trends-in... IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – full report page https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025 IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – PDF https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7ea38b60-3033-42a6-9589-71134f4229f4/GlobalEVOutlook2025.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7ea38b60-3033-42a6-... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – overview for copper shortfall / recycling https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/overview-of-outlook-for-key-minerals https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – executive summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – PDF https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ef5e9b70-3374-4caa-ba9d-19c72253bfc4/GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2025.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ef5e9b70-3374-4caa-... International Copper Association – copper intensity in electrification of transport https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017.04-E-Mobility-Factsheet-4.pdf https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2...
  - measurablefunc 6mo ago

by zug_zug 6mo ago

measurablefunc 6mo ago

I am not making any political statements, it's all basic physics & material science: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEkIh2PcSYE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEkIh2PcSYE

zug_zug 6mo ago
I've watched plenty of youtube videos, I'm not gonna watch a 10 minute video from somebody I've never heard of and treat is as a good source. It's bad form to post that here multiple times instead of just citing whatever actual published sources. Especially when EV vehicles are already working and taking over the market.
- ZeroGravitas 6mo ago
  The man in the video has a history of questionable claims, for some fairly obvious reasons: https://www.desmog.com/mark-p-mills/ https://www.desmog.com/mark-p-mills/ > Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, and a Strategic Partner at Cottonwood Venture Partners, an investment firm focused on technological advancements in oil and gas production
  - wao0uuno 6mo ago
    Edit: Just checked the guidelines so: Man, what a terrible person. I hope he steps on a lego block.
onraglanroad 6mo ago
There was no physics in that. It was 10 minutes of incoherent rambling. How do people find this convincing? Is it a new fashion?
ManuelKiessling 6mo ago
Global copper reserves are about 980 million tonnes, with 1.5 billion tonnes of identified resources and 2024 mine production of about 23 million tonnes. A conventional car uses about 23 kg of copper and a battery-electric car about 83 kg, a difference of roughly 60 kg per vehicle. With more than 17 million EVs sold in 2024, that implies about 1.4 million tonnes of copper embodied in those vehicles, or about 1.0 million tonnes more copper than comparable conventional cars would have used; applying the same assumptions to the current global passenger-car fleet implies roughly 120 million tonnes total or 87 million tonnes incremental copper for an all-BEV fleet. Separately, the IEA says that under today’s policy settings and announced projects, copper faces an implied 30% mined-supply shortfall in 2035, while expanded recycling could reduce new mine needs for copper by about 35% by 2050. USGS copper reserves / resources / mine production https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-copper.pdf USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 landing page https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025 https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/mcs2025 IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – trends in electric car markets https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/trends-in-electric-car-markets-2 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/trends-in... IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – full report page https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025 https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025 IEA Global EV Outlook 2025 – PDF https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7ea38b60-3033-42a6-9589-71134f4229f4/GlobalEVOutlook2025.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7ea38b60-3033-42a6-... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – overview for copper shortfall / recycling https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/overview-of-outlook-for-key-minerals https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – executive summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook... IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 – PDF https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ef5e9b70-3374-4caa-ba9d-19c72253bfc4/GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2025.pdf https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ef5e9b70-3374-4caa-... International Copper Association – copper intensity in electrification of transport https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017.04-E-Mobility-Factsheet-4.pdf https://internationalcopper.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2...
- measurablefunc 6mo ago