3 ms·

How is there enough volume to cover the other side of the bet with these minutes-before trades?

• andrepd 6mo ago
  The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge
  • 3eb7988a1663 6mo ago
    For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.
    • huorricannes 6mo ago
      the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected
      • JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        > betting markets offset positions with the real markets Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.
  • OutOfHere 6mo ago
    Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.
    • huorricannes 6mo ago
      the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market
  • JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
    > oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge Sure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange.