5 ms·

Prediction Markets require insider trading to function... how do people not know this? It's a setup from day one. If you have the knowledge, you're going to cas

Prediction Markets require insider trading to function... how do people not know this? It's a setup from day one. If you have the knowledge, you're going to cash in, if you don't have the knowledge, you are throwing your money away.

DANmode 6mo ago
potentially, each time.
UncleMeat 6mo ago
I've never seen an ad from either Kalshi or Polymarket that says "don't play if you aren't an insider."
- jjav 6mo ago
  The game only works if they also have a lot of people losing money.
  - b0Ringmth 6mo ago
    [flagged]
firebot 6mo ago
Most gamblers prescribe to the cost sunk fallacy and keep 'one more time'ing it to bankruptcy. Math wins over your feels every time.
- OutOfHere 6mo ago
  If you follow your math, such gambling losers don't really have that much money to bet on an ongoing basis. The ones who support the losing side on prediction markets are the ones who usually do fine, but sometimes are taken by surprise.
  - casey2 6mo ago
    Statcon 101: Gambling addicts take loans to gamble, those loans are sold to your pension fund. Who is the loser?
  - bigfatkitten 6mo ago
    Problem gamblers routinely take out loans, mortgage major assets, max out credit cards, and steal from their employers to fund their habits.
  - stouset 6mo ago
    Out of curiosity, are you aware of the existence of Las Vegas, Nevada?
nojito 6mo ago
>Prediction Markets require insider trading to function. And yet there are folks like me who have been on them for years before kalshi/polymarket making a very good side income from them without having insider knowledge. Prediction markets as a whole are very very inefficient. That's not to say that insider trading doesn't exist but you can't claim that they require insider trading to function.
- stouset 6mo ago
  > making a very good side income If you had a reliable edge, your income would be exponential. Why isn’t it?
  - ShinTakuya 6mo ago
    Do you need a reliable edge or just a slightly better than average edge?
    - stouset 6mo ago
      [dead]
  - nojito 6mo ago
    The markets I participate in tend to be illiquid, but as prediction markets get more popular things are getting better on that front.
TZubiri 6mo ago
The theory would be that the people without information pay for knowledge. Or to hedge against certain events. Similarly to how people would pay premium over inusrance
- reactordev 6mo ago
  that is what they sold you... that is not the theory.
mr_00ff00 6mo ago
> But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices. Prediction markets are all the buzz, but banning them isn’t fixing the problem. This has happened forever. Let’s not forget there was an unusual amount of put option buying right before 9/11: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.html https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.ht...

DANmode 6mo ago

potentially, each time.

UncleMeat 6mo ago

I've never seen an ad from either Kalshi or Polymarket that says "don't play if you aren't an insider."

jjav 6mo ago
The game only works if they also have a lot of people losing money.
- b0Ringmth 6mo ago
  [flagged]

firebot 6mo ago

Most gamblers prescribe to the cost sunk fallacy and keep 'one more time'ing it to bankruptcy. Math wins over your feels every time.

OutOfHere 6mo ago
If you follow your math, such gambling losers don't really have that much money to bet on an ongoing basis. The ones who support the losing side on prediction markets are the ones who usually do fine, but sometimes are taken by surprise.
- casey2 6mo ago
  Statcon 101: Gambling addicts take loans to gamble, those loans are sold to your pension fund. Who is the loser?
- bigfatkitten 6mo ago
  Problem gamblers routinely take out loans, mortgage major assets, max out credit cards, and steal from their employers to fund their habits.
- stouset 6mo ago
  Out of curiosity, are you aware of the existence of Las Vegas, Nevada?

nojito 6mo ago

>Prediction Markets require insider trading to function. And yet there are folks like me who have been on them for years before kalshi/polymarket making a very good side income from them without having insider knowledge. Prediction markets as a whole are very very inefficient. That's not to say that insider trading doesn't exist but you can't claim that they require insider trading to function.

stouset 6mo ago
> making a very good side income If you had a reliable edge, your income would be exponential. Why isn’t it?
- ShinTakuya 6mo ago
  Do you need a reliable edge or just a slightly better than average edge?
  - stouset 6mo ago
    [dead]
- nojito 6mo ago
  The markets I participate in tend to be illiquid, but as prediction markets get more popular things are getting better on that front.

TZubiri 6mo ago

The theory would be that the people without information pay for knowledge. Or to hedge against certain events. Similarly to how people would pay premium over inusrance

reactordev 6mo ago
that is what they sold you... that is not the theory.

mr_00ff00 6mo ago

> But traders weren’t just active on Polymarket: there were similar surges of oil futures trading activity just hours before Trump announced updates to the conflict that would lower oil prices. Prediction markets are all the buzz, but banning them isn’t fixing the problem. This has happened forever. Let’s not forget there was an unusual amount of put option buying right before 9/11: https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.html https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jnlbus/v79y2006i4p1703-1726.ht...