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Europe has "maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left"
- asdff 6mo agoTrump said they can always buy from the Russians
- GuestFAUniverse 6mo agoСпасибо товарищу /s
- ck2 6mo agoif they do, Russia is going to buy another decade of war price has doubled since his little "excursion" (a three hour tour?) https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28554873/embed https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/28554873/embed
- Glemllksdf 6mo agoRussia has huge problems anyway because ukrains taktik hitting oil infrastructure works very well.
- Glemllksdf 6mo agoWhy do i get downvoted? It was reported that russia even stoped gasoline exports due to this.
- adrian_b 6mo agoTrue, but that was only temporary.
- Glemllksdf 6mo agoTuapse Oil Refinery attack happened two days ago and why not just adding infos on my comment through a comment instead of a downvote?
- fpoling 6mo agoUkraine was not able to interrupt production of gasoline and diesel in Russia in a significant way after two years of targeting oil refineries. Then attacks on pipelines and their pumping stations were not effective either as Russia was able to repair damage within days and weeks. And then all Russian oil terminals on Baltic and Black seas are operational again albeit in reduced capacity after big Ukrainian attacks few weeks ago. Apparently 50-100 kg warheads that Ukrainian drones deliver is not that effective at damaging oil infrastructure. This may change if Ukraine can sustain what they were doing last couple of months, but so far Russia benefits extremely well from US war against Iran.
- deleted 6mo ago[deleted]
- Glemllksdf 6mo agoAnd another attack again which reduces russion oil production by 880.000 barrels.
- asdff 6mo agoAll part of the plan I'm sure. Smart cookies at the Heritage Foundation.
- Glemllksdf 6mo ago[flagged]
- topopopo 6mo agohttps://www.npr.org/2026/03/22/nx-s1-5752447/the-u-s-is-a-big-oil-exporter-so-why-does-it-import-most-of-the-oil-it-consumes https://www.npr.org/2026/03/22/nx-s1-5752447/the-u-s-is-a-bi... TLDR- US = 2nd world.
- simonh 6mo agoTrump urges Europe to 'immediately' stop buying Russian energy at UN meeting https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/092325-trump-urges-europe-to-immediately-stop-buying-russian-energy-at-un-meeting https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news... Fortunately the Trump Ally in Europe that was buying much of that energy just got kicked out, so, er, now all we have to do is… er… my head hurts.
- fhdkweig 6mo agoWhich minute of which day did he say that? Trump doesn't know what he is going to do in the next 5 minutes. What I find rather interesting is that China started building the world's largest strategic supply of petroleum at the beginning of 2016. China anticipated Trump's Iran war a decade before Trump did. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
- simonh 6mo agoThey're preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, and if they do that the US will cut off their oil supply, so they need the reserves. They're betting they can take Taiwan fast enough that they can present a fait a complis, and negotiate a re-opening of trade routes before their reserves run out.
- fhdkweig 6mo agoThanks, I was so concerned about all the current wars, I had completely forgotten about the wars-to-be. But I had figured that Taiwan was safe after announcing the self-destructs in the chip fabs. Hope springs eternal.
- simonh 6mo agoI don’t see why Xi should care about the fabs, we’re more reliant on them than he is. I think his goals are more political and historic. I don’t think and invasion of Taiwan would work, especially with a committed and competent administration in the US, but nobody can take that for granted nowadays. It would be a grave error anyway IMHO, but there’s no guarantee Xi sees it that way. Hopefully the example of the grave errors made by Putin in Ukraine and Trump in Iran will persuade him that Taiwan would be far too risky.
- marcosdumay 6mo agoApparently, most of the world already brought from the USA...
- haunter 6mo agoLast week it was 3 weeks so improvement? https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/10/jet-fuel-shortage-european-airports-strait-of-hormuz.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/04/10/jet-fuel-shortage-europe...
- jamie_ca 6mo ago"Shortages within 3 weeks" and "out of fuel in 6 weeks" feel like they can both be true at once.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 6mo agoThat report said shortages, I think the new proclamation is that they run out entirely. If they are that limited, I am shocked they are not curtailing use immediately. The time to start rationing was when this mess began.
- postsantum 6mo agoShouldn't worry. Victory over Iran is just around the corner
- adrian_b 6mo agoSome airlines have already started to cancel some of their flights, to save fuel, e.g. KLM and United.
- mrweasel 6mo agoAssuming that this is in any shape or form correct, why hasn't rationing started? Six weeks at normal flight capacity is an insane amount of fuel, rationing it out for transport of critical goods and travel, will stretch it for years. If the plan is to just burn through the existing stock I'd argue that someone is acting incredibly irresponsibly.
- Schiendelman 6mo agoFrom what perspective? The individual flight operators maximize their earnings by running as many flights as they can, and charging as much as they can. Individuals who need transportation also maximize their utility from the same thing. Some flight operators are planning for shortages by canceling flights: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-february-gdp-report-economy-iran-war-stock-market-reeves-ftse-sterling-live-updates https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2026/apr/16/uk-feb... Every business is prioritizing stocking up on goods they need already. They need transport to do that.
- mrweasel 6mo agoThe cancellations are because of rising prices, that doesn't mean they can get fuel, just that the current price makes the destination unprofitable. (Technically this should free up some fuel). But I was thinking from a political perspective, allowing airlines to just fly destinations that frankly aren't needed, like vacation hotspots, seems ill advised, if you truly expect to run out off fuel. The reality is that Europe won't run out of jet fuel, it's airlines can pay for the fuel it needs, for the destinations it requires, but prices will go up. Poorer countries will run out, because the fuel is worth more in Europe and will be redirected.
- carlosjobim 6mo ago[flagged]
- kyleee 6mo ago
- dgrin91 6mo agoWhats the normal stockpile? Isn't the entire US national strategic oil reserve only enough for like 1 month of US usage? 6 weeks of stockpile does not seem like a crazy number to me.
- fhdkweig 6mo agoIt fluctuates wildly based on the whims of who is in charge, but the last alterations of the rules indicates 90 days of US imports (doesn't specify usage). "International obligations As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States must stock an amount of petroleum equivalent to at least 90 days of U.S. imports. The SPR contained an equivalent to 141 days of imports as of September 2016. The United States is also obligated to contribute 43.9% of petroleum in any IEA-coordinated release." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(U...
- pwg 6mo ago> Whats the normal stockpile? For jet fuel? The article does not say, but if they are correct in predicting shortages in six weeks, then the stockpile (if any) is not terribly large. > Isn't the entire US national strategic oil reserve only enough for like 1 month of US usage? In any case, whatever it is, crude oil is not yet jet fuel. The crude has to be refined to output jet fuel (and other oil byproducts), and some amount of gulf refinery capacity is also offline due to one or both of damage or inability to export via sea through the strait.
- jandrewrogers 6mo agoThe strategic oil reserve is crude oil. It has to be sent to a refinery before it can be made into things like jet fuel. Some refined products don't have a long shelf-life so it is only manufactured to meet demand. That "6 weeks" probably reflects oil that is already in the refinery supply chain and is therefore deliverable over the next several weeks. The issue is that the top of that funnel is not being refilled. The US is an exporter of jet fuel but places like Europe and Asia or more exposed to bubbles in the supply chain.
- hadlock 6mo ago
- pteetor 6mo agoIn the USA, the available supply of gasoline is normally 21 or 22 days. The press occasionally trumpets this number, and people react with horror. But, hey, it's just normal. IDK about Europe, but 6 weeks of jet fuel does not surprize me.
- 0cf8612b2e1e 6mo agoDoes jet fuel go bad in the same way as gasoline? Might not be possible to keep enormous amounts on hand without a FIFO reservoir. Or would they normally keep oil on hand and refine it as required?
- outsidein 6mo agoFuel goes bad mostly only when mixed with bio fuel, which allows bacteria to grow which does not happen for pure fossile fuel. Additives may degrade, too - but they can be mixed after long term storage. So jet fuel which is basically identical to diesel (except additives) can be stored unlimited.
- cannonpr 6mo agoPetroleum diesel and jet fuel degrade via oxidation, hydrocarbons react with oxygen to form gums, varnishes, and sediments. Biocontent does accelerate degradation but without additives most diesels will be severely degraded at most in 12 months. That’s before we get into water contamination and fun things like Cladosporium resinae.
- Jtsummers 6mo ago6 weeks stored isn't surprising, but what's happening now is that they are getting their last deliveries from the Gulf (those ships that left before this idiotic war began). They won't be getting resupplied until the Strait of Hormuz is open and then probably weeks after that for the deliveries to arrive.
- jzb 6mo agoIn some ways it's as if the universe is conspiring to stop people traveling so much and burning so many fossil fuels. When COVID hit, we had severe curtailing of travel for a while. Now we have insanity fueling (heh) another disruption that may cause a even larger hit to travel. This story is about air fuel, but I'm sure that we'll be seeing similar effects at some point for cars, etc.
- benoau 6mo agoTime to shut down some routes (but fly the planes empty so the airlines don't lose their deals for those routes)
- dlcarrier 6mo agoTo save fuel and preserve slots, all routes will flown on a Pipistrel Virus
- TremendousJudge 6mo agothat sounds like somebody's dream job
- subscribed 6mo agoFriend of mine, a brilliant sysadmin with PLC licence, would jump on it in a heartbeat :)
- bluescrn 6mo agoNet Zero, here we come
- sebazzz 6mo agoWho would have put "Trump accelerates the green energy transition in 2026" on their bingo card?
- cybercatgurrl 6mo agonothing like an energy independence scare to spur investment in domestic alternatives
- trhway 6mo agoThe oil crisis of 70-ies brought in the fuel efficiency standards. This time i guess we also wouldn't let good crisis go waste.
- _moof 6mo agoAirlines and aircraft manufacturers are already heavily incentivized to be fuel efficient. It's the most expensive part of a flight. (Sometimes crew salaries are more expensive but not by much.)
- trhway 6mo agoThe difference here is between incremental improvements using incremental funding and glacier-speed if any of regulatory framework evolution vs. crisis situation changing calculus and providing option for large funding for the previously perceived far-off alternatives as well as jolts to change regulatory frameworks. And i'm not talking just about airplanes.
- cybercatgurrl 6mo agoanyone coming up with a massive efficiency increase in battery technology right now is going to be high profitable
- ChrisArchitect 6mo agoEarlier: KLM cancels 160 flights due to fuel shortage https://www.reuters.com/business/klm-cancels-160-flights-coming-month-due-rising-fuel-costs-2026-04-16/ https://www.reuters.com/business/klm-cancels-160-flights-com... (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47795872)
- torlok 6mo agoThousands dead, millions displaced, Hegseth just quoted "Pulp Fiction" at a sermon, but perhaps this might make enough Europeans fed up with the US.
- tmaly 6mo agoOne of Australia's two remaining refineries, the one that makes jet fuel, just caught on fire.
- gnabgib 6mo agoUncertainty over fuel supplies after major fire at oil refinery in Geelong (2 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47785552 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47785552 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-16/geelong-corio-refinery-fire/106569692 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-16/geelong-corio-refiner...
- themafia 6mo agoYep. Do "bunker fuel oil" next. Shipping is going to get squeezed just as hard.
- booi 6mo agoI wonder if we could get into a situation where there's no bunker fuel to ship crude to refineries that are able to make bunker fuel. Like a cold start problem
- tomaskafka 6mo agoPerplexity said: > If replacement cargoes are coming from the U.S. East Coast, typical sea-freight transit to North Europe is about 15 days and to South Europe about 18 days. For longer-haul routes from East Asia toward Europe, a typical voyage is about 30 days, and some general Europe-bound ocean freight can take 30 to 45 days depending on route and congestion.
- torlok 6mo agoThanks Joe Rogan.
- tomaskafka 6mo agoWell I was curious - if there's 6 weeks of supplies, and lead time for tankers is 3 weeks, we don't have 6 weeks, we have 3 ...
- zyrconlabs 6mo ago[dead]
- penguin_booze 6mo ago> Birol said it is incomprehensible that “a couple of hundred men with guns” — apparently referring to Iranian forces <sarcasm>Yeah, of course, it's their fault</sarcasm>. It's the American regime and their clown(s) show that are to be blamed for the current fuel crisis and global economic sabotage. During Covid, the then-presidumb said he'll make China pay for it. Now it's time for a differnet medicine: Evict US bases from your countries. Instead of pleading and sucking up to them, gang up (show of force) against American war games and send them home. Move away from US dollar. Keep them in their place until they how to behave.
- nacozarina 6mo agoRussia invades Estonia in 7 weeks you say?
- boringg 6mo agoIm sure they're referring to commercial fuel in case you had confused their military stocks.
- dashdot 6mo agoHow many weeks is their usual reserve?
- ceejayoz 6mo agoDoes it matter? > In the past, Europe has relied on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports, the IEA noted. Just-in-time logistics are great, until you can't get things in-time.
- flakeoil 6mo agoIf they normally have 6 weeks left, then that would mean they replenish as usual. If they normally have say 30 weeks left, then I guess they have some issues.
- ceejayoz 6mo agoIf they normally have six weeks left, and the spigot is unexpectedly shut off, that's a bit different yeah? Having six weeks of food in my house is probably plenty. Having six weeks left on my Mars mission when it's a six month trip home, less so.
- WheatMillington 6mo agoIf only there were a recent global event that shut down supply chains from which we could have drawn these lessons.
- andrewaylett 6mo agoNote that this isn't six weeks of reserve, it's an estimated six weeks of draw-down given what they're still receiving from other sources combined with (I suspect) both known fuel in transit and a reserve that wouldn't last nearly as long as six weeks if it were all they had. If they can increase supply or reduce demand, the reserve will take longer to draw down.