5 ms·

Already priced in.

• jp57 6mo ago
  Except that the mere existence of the market with the question posed for people to consider, probably activates the availability heuristic[1], causing people to overestimate the likelihood. [1] https://philopedia.org/topics/availability-heuristic/ https://philopedia.org/topics/availability-heuristic/
• m-hodges 6mo ago
  The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436
  • gruez 6mo ago
    What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Sure, you might try to filter that out with some sort of "seasoning" period (ie. don't buy new markets), but then that means more time for arbitrageurs to correctly price the market, depriving you of any price advantage you might have had.
    • baq 6mo ago
      jane street is always hiring!
    • Bratmon 6mo ago
      > What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Who does "you" refer to in this sentence? Polymarket itself? I'm pretty sure if Polymarket itself decides it wants to screw you, you're gonna lose no natter what your strategy is.
    • fer 6mo ago
      There are quite a few of those, my favourite: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before... If you put all your money on no, you get 4% if you win, and if Jesus comes back and you lose, money won't matter.
      • gruez 6mo ago
        >you get 4% if you win, This locks up your money in the meantime, right? If so, considering the fed funds rate is 3.64% (and you can probably get higher rates on stablecoins), a huge chunk of those "winnings" is going to be eaten up by the opportunity cost of the money.
        • Lockal 6mo ago
          You forget that Polymarket is just a casino, and the house always wins. For example, recent events show that any bet can be selectively disputed by arbitrary reason ("we found insiders", "we found this immoral/illegal", etc.). And for perpetual events - there is not a single week without a hack (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/ https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/)
  • hoerzu 6mo ago
    For this question I'm working on https://polygains.com https://polygains.com What other question would you like to be backtested? This one is fairly easy
    • lordnacho 6mo ago
      For every bucket of probability, what is the chance it resolves correctly? For example, for markets that are between 60 and 70, is it the case that around 65% of them resolve to yes? I guess you want to take a certain time before out finishes, so focus on sports.
  • gowld 6mo ago
    That presumes that there are people selling into new markets at 0.5 without thinking about the actual odds.
  • zahlman 6mo ago
    Of course, once you add a condition like that, the probabilities change....
• declan_roberts 6mo ago
  "Nothing ever happens"
• faeyanpiraat 6mo ago
  Benjamin, huh?