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The lack of robotics mention somewhat undermines this article. I don't think it's intrinsically wrong, we are in a late stage of a transformation. Software is

• surgical_fire 6mo ago
  As far as I know Anthropic still bleeds money, as Open AI also does. They will keep bleeding money by the way.
  • barrkel 6mo ago
    I don't believe the marginal customer of Claude Code is loss-making.
• nerptastic 6mo ago
  Anthropic today, who next week? If locally run models ever get to the point where they can reliably solve... 85% of what the frontier cloud models can do, I think many would be willing to accept slightly less problem solving ability and just run the thing locally. All hypothetical, but if compute + AI research continues at pace, in 5 years we should see extremely good local models.
  • jimbokun 6mo ago
    Yes it's not clear to me that AI companies have a defensible moat against open models.
  • sdsd 6mo ago
    As a user of local models, it's well above 85% already. I use frontier models at work and local models for home use because my day to day tasks are well within what DeepSeek can handle.
• petra 6mo ago
  The question is whether robotics will look like a some number of platforms with little development to adapt to different scenarios, or a million types of machines that are highly fit for purpose. Because the first situation won't create that many jobs. The second one might.
  • barrkel 6mo ago
    I expect hybrids. Something general has to be adaptable for what will be an expensive capital purchase. The human form factor - torso up anyway - is probably easier to bootstrap on a general basis; keyed off of human data. But I don't like the failure modes of bipedal robots - imagine a robot flailing around trying to regain balance, in any setting with humans around. I'm no expert of course, just pontificating.
• jimbokun 6mo ago
  > The lack of robotics mention somewhat undermines this article. True but in common parlance "AI" has come to mean LLMs. > Software is eating the world The premise of the article is software ATE the world and there isn't much left to eat that hasn't been eaten.
  • madaxe_again 6mo ago
    I chuckled at: >> At the early stage of a surge, investment tends to be patchy and not fully understood—the sector exists but it is not completely legible yet. He says this in the context that AI clearly doesn’t fit this pattern, as the investment has been enormous. I feel like he and everyone else has a scale problem, due to the tendency to equate AI to LLMs - the investment is patchy and not fully understood - I really don’t think we’ve seen anything more than the pretremors at this point - as the scale of the change is just as incomprehensible to the world at large now as it was when the steam engine was just a slightly better way of getting water out of a mine than a donkey.
  • barrkel 6mo ago
    Software hasn't eaten all it could, in my book, and AI makes a lot more stuff legible to software.