5 ms·

There's no way we're not living in a historical simulation. This is all just such crazy coincidence. Everything is coming together so quickly.

by echelon 7mo ago

trhway 7mo ago
look at the history of technology, and before that to the biological history - how long it took from single cells to multi-cells vs. for example how long it took from lizard brain to human brain - the things are naturally going exponential (my thinking why - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9418811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9418811) at least until they hit some wall, yet so far hitting walls mostly only stimulated even more advanced development. There is an issue of the "non-uniformity of the spread of the future" though with fast development, and the faster the development the stronger the non-uniformity and the tensions it creates. Strong non-uniformity and resulting tensions have tendency to resolve catastrophically on their own at some point if not solved/smoothed by the other ways before.
ks2048 7mo ago
What's a "a historical simulation" and why is it all such a coincidence? The "simulation argument" to me is ridiculous.
- echelon 7mo ago
  We don't know if life is rare, but intelligence seems rare given our sky surveys to date. Life started on earth shortly after the solar system formed. It's a quarter the age of the universe that it took for intelligence and civilization to arise. A long, long, looooong time. From a numbers perspective, our minds are all shockingly rare. The universe probably doesn't produce many of us through stellar and then biological evolution. Taking that into consideration, contrast that with the flip side. If high technological simulation exists that becomes indistinguishable from reality, it could simulate quintillions of minds. It seems like we're on the path to that technology, with a great degree of probability. Given that, and the fact that historical simulation is likely easy for the future, it seems more probable to me that we're one of the quintillions of simulations rather than the origin timeline. I'm half joking, but I'm half not. It's a fun thought experiment with absolutely no basis in science. Do you even really know if you were alive a second ago? Perhaps you were just instanced into existence with a set of memories - memories you are not randomly accessing. A very deliberate version of a Boltzmann Brain. Again, pseudoscientific tomfoolery, but fun to ponder.
  - defrost 7mo ago
    > but intelligence seems rare given our sky surveys to date. Most of the universe, by a large percentage (or so I'm told), is further away than 200 light years. What signs of intelligence would we see or detect in our own solar system from a distance of 200 light years should we scan it with all our latest and best tech?
    - echelon 7mo ago
      David Kipping has given several lectures in which he proposes that life on Earth may be the only life in the observable universe. It's kind of fascinating to ponder, though he holds that the true scientist states we have no evidence either way. It's strange that life has existed on earth for much of the age of the solar system itself, yet intelligence only arises at the end of the habitable period of earth. There's not much time left.
      - defrost 7mo ago
        Well that's great for David Kipping, nice to see British astro's getting up and out. * Did David give any answer to the question of what could be observed about intelligent life on Earth from a distance of 200 light years? That was the question asked. * Who out there is giving lectures in which they propose other intelligent life exists "out there" ? > yet intelligence only arises at the end of the habitable period of earth. Human habitable .. and some human descendants may very well survive AGW, if not there's likely time for non human intelligence to come along on the planet.
Dylan16807 7mo ago
For the "coincidence" part: While technology has been advancing very fast, the human population also ballooned alongside that advancement, so the odds of any particular intelligent Earthling being born in such an era of growth are pretty high.

There's no way we're not living in a historical simulation. This is all just such crazy coincidence. Everything is coming together so quickly.

by echelon 7mo ago

There's no way we're not living in a historical simulation. This is all just such crazy coincidence. Everything is coming together so quickly.

trhway 7mo ago

look at the history of technology, and before that to the biological history - how long it took from single cells to multi-cells vs. for example how long it took from lizard brain to human brain - the things are naturally going exponential (my thinking why - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9418811 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9418811) at least until they hit some wall, yet so far hitting walls mostly only stimulated even more advanced development. There is an issue of the "non-uniformity of the spread of the future" though with fast development, and the faster the development the stronger the non-uniformity and the tensions it creates. Strong non-uniformity and resulting tensions have tendency to resolve catastrophically on their own at some point if not solved/smoothed by the other ways before.

ks2048 7mo ago

What's a "a historical simulation" and why is it all such a coincidence? The "simulation argument" to me is ridiculous.

echelon 7mo ago
We don't know if life is rare, but intelligence seems rare given our sky surveys to date. Life started on earth shortly after the solar system formed. It's a quarter the age of the universe that it took for intelligence and civilization to arise. A long, long, looooong time. From a numbers perspective, our minds are all shockingly rare. The universe probably doesn't produce many of us through stellar and then biological evolution. Taking that into consideration, contrast that with the flip side. If high technological simulation exists that becomes indistinguishable from reality, it could simulate quintillions of minds. It seems like we're on the path to that technology, with a great degree of probability. Given that, and the fact that historical simulation is likely easy for the future, it seems more probable to me that we're one of the quintillions of simulations rather than the origin timeline. I'm half joking, but I'm half not. It's a fun thought experiment with absolutely no basis in science. Do you even really know if you were alive a second ago? Perhaps you were just instanced into existence with a set of memories - memories you are not randomly accessing. A very deliberate version of a Boltzmann Brain. Again, pseudoscientific tomfoolery, but fun to ponder.
- defrost 7mo ago
  > but intelligence seems rare given our sky surveys to date. Most of the universe, by a large percentage (or so I'm told), is further away than 200 light years. What signs of intelligence would we see or detect in our own solar system from a distance of 200 light years should we scan it with all our latest and best tech?
  - echelon 7mo ago
    David Kipping has given several lectures in which he proposes that life on Earth may be the only life in the observable universe. It's kind of fascinating to ponder, though he holds that the true scientist states we have no evidence either way. It's strange that life has existed on earth for much of the age of the solar system itself, yet intelligence only arises at the end of the habitable period of earth. There's not much time left.
    - defrost 7mo ago
      Well that's great for David Kipping, nice to see British astro's getting up and out. * Did David give any answer to the question of what could be observed about intelligent life on Earth from a distance of 200 light years? That was the question asked. * Who out there is giving lectures in which they propose other intelligent life exists "out there" ? > yet intelligence only arises at the end of the habitable period of earth. Human habitable .. and some human descendants may very well survive AGW, if not there's likely time for non human intelligence to come along on the planet.

Dylan16807 7mo ago

For the "coincidence" part: While technology has been advancing very fast, the human population also ballooned alongside that advancement, so the odds of any particular intelligent Earthling being born in such an era of growth are pretty high.