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This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US sho

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. 5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money.

Nursie 6mo ago
Yup, and it's a demonstration that the US is unable to just impose its will wherever it wants, making the US look weaker. Failure all around. But no doubt Trump and his people will tell the world what an amazing success the whole thing was, and how they exceeded all their goals, whatever those goals might have been.
ekr 6mo ago
I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.
- alsetmusic 6mo ago
  > I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and was proved incapable of dominance. Trump will claim victory, but it's not what they thought they'd get.
  - RobRivera 6mo ago
    The 'what does that have to do with anything' attack, yes quite effective at making yourself appear inquisitive and collaborative, and open-minded. /s
  - Den_VR 6mo ago
    [dead]
  - alsetmusic 6mo ago
    What the eff do you even mean? I'm not trying to be inquisitive. I'm pointing out a very specific fault. You're trying to reframe my point and you're full of it. > What does that have to do with anything? That's not an actual question. That's me saying "wtf are you talking about".
- locknitpicker 6mo ago
  > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. That alone is another clear sign of Iran's ruling regime emerging as the clear victor. Not only there was no regime change but also their primary regional and global antagonists tried their hardest and completely failed to overthrow them. Moreover, some neighboring countries who were in the US sphere of influence were very quick to fold and remove themselves from the conflict, while others saw their primary economy attacked by Iran and helplessly so. Forget about Iranian regime's internal opposition. So did the US. Is there any question on who emerged the clear winner?
  - roncesvalles 6mo ago
    Is this an AI comment? 1. A power struggle is more likely than an election. Even if an election, it would be a bit Putinesque considering the IRGC has killed 30k protesters this year, that likely included any viable opposition leaders. 2. Only Qatar, and it is speculated because it was one of 3 countries in the region not intimated by the US about the attack, and they aren't very happy about that.
    - tovej 6mo ago
      This is mostly true, but I have to push back against the 30k number. That's a number that only the US regime has been touting. HRANA has verified about 7000.
- citrin_ru 6mo ago
  > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. Maybe not soon. The power now has shifted from mullah to IRGC commanders and they likely will want to keep it while having Khamenei as a figurehead.
woah 6mo ago
> much younger and more formidable Khameini Formidable?
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- emkoemko 6mo ago
  more crazy then his father is what i hear
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
  - esseph 6mo ago
    He's likely in a coma or already dead.
  - westpfelia 6mo ago
    guy has spent his whole life being labeled as a monster simply for being born. I'm sure that causes a guy to develop some sort of complex.
dismalaf 6mo ago
There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.
- antoniojtorres 6mo ago
  Reroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.
  - dismalaf 6mo ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi... Tensions are high because of all the trapped ships. Not because there's no alternative.
    - cozzyd 6mo ago
      Wait until you hear about the Houthis.(or the fact that the pipeline is only a small fraction of the capacity of the strait).
      - dismalaf 6mo ago
        All the proxies Iran arms is a good argument for continuing to attack them.
    - decimalenough 6mo ago
      The Saudi & UAE pipelines combined can only carry around 9mbpd and are already maxed out, compared to an average of 20 through the Strait.
      - dismalaf 6mo ago
        And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival. Again, short term goal is to clear out the stranded ships and the war can resume. Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it.
karim79 6mo ago
[flagged]
- decimalenough 6mo ago
  It's a war, everybody loses, but given that the US started this with the explicit goal of regime change and has manifestly failed to accomplish this, it's a victory by default for Iran. Although it wouldn't surprise me if the final deal includes Khameini Jr stepping down and being replaced by somebody with a more palatable last name.
- bruce511 6mo ago
  Winning is not the absence of anything negative. Winning is emerging in a stronger position than before. Yes the US started the conflict for reasons which are unclear. Yes a lot of lives were lost, and a lot of infrastructure destroyed. Because the US goals are so murky it's hard to determine their standard for "winning". Certainly no one (myself included) is a fan of the Iranian regime. But that hasn't changed. The nuclear threat is unchanged. (A threat which only exists because of Trumps actions in his first term.) What we have seen is the threat of the strait closing move from the theoretical to practical. We've seen the impact that has on the global sentiment. Iran has a card to play, and they played it, and now we all understand what it means. That strengthens their position. Israel also ends up weaker here. The nuclear threat is unchanged. But the deaths in Iran will fuel enlistment in anti-Israel terrorist organizations for another generation. America has lost some global prestige. (Not for the first time recently.) They've shown that they are powerless to open the strait by force. "Winning" is a loaded term. But so far they have prevented the US from achieving their goals (if they even had any). Lots of countries declined the invitation to join in. Iran is now diplomatically stronger than before. The US and Israel are weaker. Call it whatever you like.
  - Yoric 6mo ago
    > Israel also ends up weaker here. The nuclear threat is unchanged. But the deaths in Iran will fuel enlistment in anti-Israel terrorist organizations for another generation. I agree with everything else you wrote, but I'm not sure that this is considered a loss by Israel's current government. 1. Israel is used to having enemies all over the world, so by now, the population doesn't care all that much. 2. The Likoud and its far-right alliance actually needs enemies to remain in power. Also, any reduction in the number of missiles that Iran can launch at Israel, and any reduction in the number of AA armament that prevents Israel from bombing Iran again is good for Israel. Where Israel will feel the loss is the 2M$ levy, because this means that Iran will rearm that much faster.
Yoric 6mo ago
Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.
- bestouff 6mo ago
  What's à good image of the US nowadays ? Artemis maybe. That's all.
  - bambax 6mo ago
    Wait for re-entry. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47582043 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47582043
- azinman2 6mo ago
  Would a better image be destroying the power plants and water desalination of 90M people?
  - _heimdall 6mo ago
    One should never draw a redline they aren't willing to cross. Trump of all people should know this, he gave Obama shit for years over the uninforced redline with Syria over chemical weapon use.
    - kelnos 6mo ago
      To Trump, when someone else does something, it's worthy of reproach, but when Trump himself does it, it's the cleverest 4D chess anyone could ever imagine.
    - cosmicgadget 6mo ago
      A more fundamental aspect of his character is that everything his enemies does is bad and stupid and everything he does is good and genius. So if Obama allows red lines to be crossed, it's totally different. Trump has a long history of bluster and hyperbole and - look - we re-elected him so I guess it can be a winning strategy. Or it was. Now that people are calling his bluff on tariffs and genocide, there isn't so much winning.
jayd16 6mo ago
I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is the US's loss I do not really see how it is a win for Iran.
- jauco 6mo ago
  It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss) The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.
  - gambutin 6mo ago
    Over the past few months their oil facilities have been heavily attacked. It’s hard to believe they’re actually making a big profit from this in the short term.
  - thelastgallon 6mo ago
    The biggest winner is China. Countries/people who have any common sense will switch to solar, induction stoves (replacing LPG/LNG), batteries, electric vehicles (of all kinds). China is the only supplier of solar, batteries, EVs and all things electric with everyone else being a rounding error.
    - igor47 6mo ago
      I've been waiting for people to have common sense in this domain for decades. The short term always wins
      - omnimus 6mo ago
        But that's what has changed. Even short term solar is becoming the obvious solution. Look at countries like Pakistan and their solar hyper growth. Everybody thought it has to be western countries (mostly europe) switching to solar first. But west might actually be last to get off fossil because they can afford it and populist politics will force fossil. It's like burning fossil for nostalgia.
Ms-J 6mo ago
Why isn't Iran doing more? It seems like they are pandering to the USA when they have the moral high ground.
- refurb 6mo ago
  Moral high ground? They lost it long ago when they were hanging people for being gay and sponsoring terrorist groups.
  - Hikikomori 6mo ago
    First thing is something US wants to do and they've done the other a lot.
deleted 6mo ago
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tristanj 6mo ago
I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food, people will starve; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots bigger than the ones seen in January. The Iranian government would have no ability to coordinate a response, and Iran would collapse within a week. The country would devolve into chaos, into paramilitary factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria. The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. Once Iran showed it had no ability to prevent the US/Israel from doing a indiscriminate bombing campaign, it was clear the US and Israel could always win this war through this outcome.
- krainboltgreene 6mo ago
  > The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. That is such an incredible interpretation of the situation that basically requires you to ignore basically every economic problem being faced from this insanity currently and in the near future. Sure, the US an Israel were just "too concerned" about the Iranian economy to do war crimes.
  - jatora 6mo ago
    Yes? How is it a misinterpretation?
- nicbou 6mo ago
  They did not manage to bomb Germany, North Korea, or North Vietnam into submission and they tried for years. Winning through bombing alone has never worked.
gambutin 6mo ago
Let’s discuss this again in two weeks. I suggest. This ceasefire will defuse the global economy’s tensions. That’s its sole purpose. It’s unlikely they’ll find enough common ground for a lasting agreement.
thisisit 6mo ago
I'd say more like a loss for the US than a win for Iran. > 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. Everyone knew from the beginning that closing the strait was something Iran would do. But it is current US government that is either inept or too smart for their own good and thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use, it will not impact them. They didn't care for the consequences and it came back to bite them. Also, wasn't it that even if the war was stop/ceasefire oil prices will take a long time to recover? If that is true the domestic pop getting pissed might be true even with this ceasefire and it will hurt the current government in their upcoming elections. > 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. More like galvanized people against a common enemy. Regime is going to come down hard on the protestors than ever before and some might find it easier to blame the power which claimed to deliver the regime change. Then Americans will talk about how Iranians hate their way of life and the attack was justified.
- _heimdall 6mo ago
  > thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use I have to assume that at least someone in the room was well aware that all oil is not created equal and that US refineries were designed from the beginning for Venezuelan and similar oil rather than US oil.
  - citrin_ru 6mo ago
    Even if US refineries were designed for US oil to keep domestic prices low one would have to introduce export restrictions because oil is a global commondity. Big oil will not be happy about that and it seems they have a great influence over the respublican party and Trump.
    - _heimdall 6mo ago
      Oh I expect its a very real possibility that the oil industry would just be nationalized if push came to shove.
4ndrewl 6mo ago
The real winners are those psychic commodities/future traders and the arms industry. Again.
smdz 6mo ago
This war (not the ceasefire) is basically a loss for the USA. Many people don't yet grasp the scale of the reputational, economic, and power damage that has occurred and will continue to occur.
- littlestymaar 6mo ago
  The US foreign policy has perfected the art of turning a stream of tactical victories into a strategic defeat. They used to spend years to do that, now they managed to do it in just over a month.
- BatteryMountain 6mo ago
  Just the attack on data centers has caused certain conversations in my circles that basically comes to down to some guys will try to get off of foreign clouds and into local hosting in their own countries (most seems keen for co-location hosting because of the static ip ranges & other admin sugar and reliable power; not concerned about hardware pricing as the hardware is less than 10% of the equation). All thanks to a couple attacks on data centers that we are not even hosting on.
maxglute 6mo ago
More loss for US, as in customary US not winning fast is functionally the same as losing. Heavy weight boxing a teen it should have brained in round 1. Teen lands a few punches back is embarrassing. Teen slapping heavy weights protectorates more embarrassing. Teen surviving week 4 is like heavy weight failing to brain teen by round 7. At this point it's looking like we're going to round 10 TKO, whoever "wins", US loses. People still going to wank over if US wins on TKO because muh K:D ratio or something, but real signal is teen's strategy was to survive hits and ultimately 10000s of heavy weight hits weren't haymaker strong enough to brain a teen. At >2% of GDP of PRC, Iran is basically teen/toddler territory that drew down significant % of US active force and munition stockpiles, so there's also layer of US losing more based on relative effort expended.
- actionfromafar 6mo ago
  To China, the conflict is a clear demonstration of the impotency of the US war machine. Before this "military operation", one could imagine the US defending Taiwan. Now, it's a laughable thought. It couldn't even if it wanted to.
  - shash 6mo ago
    Remember that the defender has home team advantage. That’s precisely what you see happening both in Iran and Ukraine. That advantage exists with Taiwan. There’s a reason that China hasn’t made a move in all these years, and the US is only one part of that equation.
    - maxglute 6mo ago
      Homefield advantage is relative, between Ukraine - Iran - Gaza, Taiwan is closer to Gaza, which is to say not much after mitigating outside spoilers. Maybe less than Gaza vs force disparity involved. US is/was one part of equation, but big part of equation.
refurb 6mo ago
This is in no way a win for Iran. Hundreds of regime leadership is gone. Massive destruction of infrastructure. Bombed all their neighbors who weren’t even at war with them. Pushed those same neighbors into closer partnership with Israel and the US. Now the regime is severely weakened.
- intended 6mo ago
  This would make sense if the regime command structure had apparently not designed itself for this exact type of conflict. They were in a fight, took losses, and made significant gains. They proved their planning was correct, that the distributed nature of their power grid was correct, that they are able to project force and genuinely destabilize the strait. Things have been proven that were previously uncertain, and they have not been proven in America’s favour. Crucially America’s ability to defend its allies was tested and found wanting. The entire conflict was of unit economics, in that a cheap 30k drone beat out billion dollar investments. America also spent the better part of this administration alienating themselves from the one allied nation with extensive drone combat experience.
  - iugtmkbdfil834 6mo ago
    Admittedly, this is the interesting part. Ukraine via its leader apparently did try to reach US in exchange for money, but, and there stories get confused, was ignored. I have to wonder if Trump has some actual fixed winners table in his mind ( because he does not seem to follow the most optimal path ).
    - deleted 6mo ago
      [deleted]
- thejohnconway 6mo ago
  None of those things matter if they survive and control the straight, which seems to be the situation. The toll revenue will be enough to rebuild several times over. They have proven that they can absolutely crush the gulf states with missiles and drones. I think the fact that Trump accepted their 10-point plan as the basis for negotiation, instead of them accepting the American 15-point plan, makes it obvious this is America taking the loss.
dgellow 6mo ago
Also, I would expect Iran cultural influence to continue to grow in its region. And they now have the strait toll as a new source of revenue. Note that it is also a win for Israel, so far. They are still invading Lebanon with no plans to stop. And a clear loss for the US who literally got nothing from that whole thing and triggered a massive global crisis
watwut 6mo ago
> 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. More like: Reminded the anti regime population that US has no interest to help them and will happily kill all Iranians and proudly destroy all of civil infrastructure. > 5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money. In this case, the destabilization is firmly the fault of USA and Israel.
andai 6mo ago
Parable of the sun and the wind..
ropable 6mo ago
It's very hard for me to see this war (regardless of final outcome) as anything other than a massive strategic loss for the USA. The US has spent a stunning amount of materiel and political capital to achieve nothing of lasting benefit to themselves, and have killed thousands while further destabilising and impoverishing the region. A catastrophic outcome. It's absolutely possible for both sides in a major conflict to lose, and they've managed to do so in this case.
znnajdla 6mo ago
6. Permanently destroyed many US bases and radar installations in the Middle East which aren’t coming back anytime soon.
Invictus0 6mo ago
Only on hacker news is the destruction of all your military hardware and the death of all your leaders a win
- deadbabe 6mo ago
  Those can be replaced. The damage to US reputation and influence will last the rest of our lives.
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
- Revanche1367 6mo ago
  Not just HN, just about all social media except far-right Trumpist echo-chambers have been calling it a Iran win or at least a US loss.
- mrguyorama 6mo ago
  Buddy France lost it's country and still won WW2 It's the war, not the battle.
  - Invictus0 6mo ago
    https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/sivy5j/comment/hvi3157 https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/sivy5j/comment/hvi... Boy is that a terrible analogy. France "won" nothing, they actively collaborated with the Nazis, and they were pretty useless for most of the war.

Nursie 6mo ago

Yup, and it's a demonstration that the US is unable to just impose its will wherever it wants, making the US look weaker. Failure all around. But no doubt Trump and his people will tell the world what an amazing success the whole thing was, and how they exceeded all their goals, whatever those goals might have been.

ekr 6mo ago

I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. So I think there will be another leader elected soon.

alsetmusic 6mo ago
> I think you're mostly right, except maybe a bit misinformed on #1. The younger Khamenei is, according to recent reports, in a very unstable condition, has likely never actually had an input on the leadership of Iran so far, and his future state is uncertain. > So I think there will be another leader elected soon. What does that have to do with anything? The USA (my country, sadly) provoked a far smaller nation and was proved incapable of dominance. Trump will claim victory, but it's not what they thought they'd get.
- RobRivera 6mo ago
  The 'what does that have to do with anything' attack, yes quite effective at making yourself appear inquisitive and collaborative, and open-minded. /s
- Den_VR 6mo ago
  [dead]
- alsetmusic 6mo ago
  What the eff do you even mean? I'm not trying to be inquisitive. I'm pointing out a very specific fault. You're trying to reframe my point and you're full of it. > What does that have to do with anything? That's not an actual question. That's me saying "wtf are you talking about".
locknitpicker 6mo ago
> So I think there will be another leader elected soon. That alone is another clear sign of Iran's ruling regime emerging as the clear victor. Not only there was no regime change but also their primary regional and global antagonists tried their hardest and completely failed to overthrow them. Moreover, some neighboring countries who were in the US sphere of influence were very quick to fold and remove themselves from the conflict, while others saw their primary economy attacked by Iran and helplessly so. Forget about Iranian regime's internal opposition. So did the US. Is there any question on who emerged the clear winner?
- roncesvalles 6mo ago
  Is this an AI comment? 1. A power struggle is more likely than an election. Even if an election, it would be a bit Putinesque considering the IRGC has killed 30k protesters this year, that likely included any viable opposition leaders. 2. Only Qatar, and it is speculated because it was one of 3 countries in the region not intimated by the US about the attack, and they aren't very happy about that.
  - tovej 6mo ago
    This is mostly true, but I have to push back against the 30k number. That's a number that only the US regime has been touting. HRANA has verified about 7000.
citrin_ru 6mo ago
> So I think there will be another leader elected soon. Maybe not soon. The power now has shifted from mullah to IRGC commanders and they likely will want to keep it while having Khamenei as a figurehead.

woah 6mo ago

> much younger and more formidable Khameini Formidable?

deleted 6mo ago
[deleted]
emkoemko 6mo ago
more crazy then his father is what i hear
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
- esseph 6mo ago
  He's likely in a coma or already dead.
- westpfelia 6mo ago
  guy has spent his whole life being labeled as a monster simply for being born. I'm sure that causes a guy to develop some sort of complex.

dismalaf 6mo ago

There will be a 2 week ceasefire, western countries will move ships out of the straight, the Saudis will reroute oil, the 10 point plan is idiotic and the US will have an easy excuse to resume bombing them.

antoniojtorres 6mo ago
Reroute where? Nonsense. If that was the case then the tensions wouldn’t be this high.
- dismalaf 6mo ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi... Tensions are high because of all the trapped ships. Not because there's no alternative.
  - cozzyd 6mo ago
    Wait until you hear about the Houthis.(or the fact that the pipeline is only a small fraction of the capacity of the strait).
    - dismalaf 6mo ago
      All the proxies Iran arms is a good argument for continuing to attack them.
  - decimalenough 6mo ago
    The Saudi & UAE pipelines combined can only carry around 9mbpd and are already maxed out, compared to an average of 20 through the Strait.
    - dismalaf 6mo ago
      And? Reduced capacity for awhile raises prices, the Saudis can sit on some oil and have the US get rid of their geopolitical and economic rival. Again, short term goal is to clear out the stranded ships and the war can resume. Because the Iranian 10 point plan is so ridiculous even Trump isn't dumb enough to take it.

karim79 6mo ago

[flagged]

decimalenough 6mo ago
It's a war, everybody loses, but given that the US started this with the explicit goal of regime change and has manifestly failed to accomplish this, it's a victory by default for Iran. Although it wouldn't surprise me if the final deal includes Khameini Jr stepping down and being replaced by somebody with a more palatable last name.
bruce511 6mo ago
Winning is not the absence of anything negative. Winning is emerging in a stronger position than before. Yes the US started the conflict for reasons which are unclear. Yes a lot of lives were lost, and a lot of infrastructure destroyed. Because the US goals are so murky it's hard to determine their standard for "winning". Certainly no one (myself included) is a fan of the Iranian regime. But that hasn't changed. The nuclear threat is unchanged. (A threat which only exists because of Trumps actions in his first term.) What we have seen is the threat of the strait closing move from the theoretical to practical. We've seen the impact that has on the global sentiment. Iran has a card to play, and they played it, and now we all understand what it means. That strengthens their position. Israel also ends up weaker here. The nuclear threat is unchanged. But the deaths in Iran will fuel enlistment in anti-Israel terrorist organizations for another generation. America has lost some global prestige. (Not for the first time recently.) They've shown that they are powerless to open the strait by force. "Winning" is a loaded term. But so far they have prevented the US from achieving their goals (if they even had any). Lots of countries declined the invitation to join in. Iran is now diplomatically stronger than before. The US and Israel are weaker. Call it whatever you like.
- Yoric 6mo ago
  > Israel also ends up weaker here. The nuclear threat is unchanged. But the deaths in Iran will fuel enlistment in anti-Israel terrorist organizations for another generation. I agree with everything else you wrote, but I'm not sure that this is considered a loss by Israel's current government. 1. Israel is used to having enemies all over the world, so by now, the population doesn't care all that much. 2. The Likoud and its far-right alliance actually needs enemies to remain in power. Also, any reduction in the number of missiles that Iran can launch at Israel, and any reduction in the number of AA armament that prevents Israel from bombing Iran again is good for Israel. Where Israel will feel the loss is the 2M$ levy, because this means that Iran will rearm that much faster.

Yoric 6mo ago

Still looking at the details, but this morning, one of the biggest French newspapers was basically headlining (a slightly more polite version of) TACO. Not a good image for the US around the world, including its (former?) allies, I guess.

bestouff 6mo ago
What's à good image of the US nowadays ? Artemis maybe. That's all.
- bambax 6mo ago
  Wait for re-entry. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47582043 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47582043
azinman2 6mo ago
Would a better image be destroying the power plants and water desalination of 90M people?
- _heimdall 6mo ago
  One should never draw a redline they aren't willing to cross. Trump of all people should know this, he gave Obama shit for years over the uninforced redline with Syria over chemical weapon use.
  - kelnos 6mo ago
    To Trump, when someone else does something, it's worthy of reproach, but when Trump himself does it, it's the cleverest 4D chess anyone could ever imagine.
  - cosmicgadget 6mo ago
    A more fundamental aspect of his character is that everything his enemies does is bad and stupid and everything he does is good and genius. So if Obama allows red lines to be crossed, it's totally different. Trump has a long history of bluster and hyperbole and - look - we re-elected him so I guess it can be a winning strategy. Or it was. Now that people are calling his bluff on tariffs and genocide, there isn't so much winning.

jayd16 6mo ago

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is the US's loss I do not really see how it is a win for Iran.

jauco 6mo ago
It’s not the ME countries who are profiting, because they can’t export. So it’s a net loss. (Saudi and oman win a bit, but in no comparison to the iraq kuwait loss) The winners are mostly: Russia, Iran itself and (margibally) the US. But mostly Russia.
- gambutin 6mo ago
  Over the past few months their oil facilities have been heavily attacked. It’s hard to believe they’re actually making a big profit from this in the short term.
- thelastgallon 6mo ago
  The biggest winner is China. Countries/people who have any common sense will switch to solar, induction stoves (replacing LPG/LNG), batteries, electric vehicles (of all kinds). China is the only supplier of solar, batteries, EVs and all things electric with everyone else being a rounding error.
  - igor47 6mo ago
    I've been waiting for people to have common sense in this domain for decades. The short term always wins
    - omnimus 6mo ago
      But that's what has changed. Even short term solar is becoming the obvious solution. Look at countries like Pakistan and their solar hyper growth. Everybody thought it has to be western countries (mostly europe) switching to solar first. But west might actually be last to get off fossil because they can afford it and populist politics will force fossil. It's like burning fossil for nostalgia.

Ms-J 6mo ago

Why isn't Iran doing more? It seems like they are pandering to the USA when they have the moral high ground.

refurb 6mo ago
Moral high ground? They lost it long ago when they were hanging people for being gay and sponsoring terrorist groups.
- Hikikomori 6mo ago
  First thing is something US wants to do and they've done the other a lot.

deleted 6mo ago

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tristanj 6mo ago

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there are no logistics; there is no capability to transport an army. Nor is there an ability to transport food, people will starve; it would cause an enormous civilian crisis, and this would cause massive riots bigger than the ones seen in January. The Iranian government would have no ability to coordinate a response, and Iran would collapse within a week. The country would devolve into chaos, into paramilitary factions, and a civil war would start, similar to in Syria. The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. Once Iran showed it had no ability to prevent the US/Israel from doing a indiscriminate bombing campaign, it was clear the US and Israel could always win this war through this outcome.

krainboltgreene 6mo ago
> The US and Israel have been sitting on this the entire time. They don't want to do it, because it would cause near permanent economic damage to Iran. That is such an incredible interpretation of the situation that basically requires you to ignore basically every economic problem being faced from this insanity currently and in the near future. Sure, the US an Israel were just "too concerned" about the Iranian economy to do war crimes.
- jatora 6mo ago
  Yes? How is it a misinterpretation?
nicbou 6mo ago
They did not manage to bomb Germany, North Korea, or North Vietnam into submission and they tried for years. Winning through bombing alone has never worked.

gambutin 6mo ago

Let’s discuss this again in two weeks. I suggest. This ceasefire will defuse the global economy’s tensions. That’s its sole purpose. It’s unlikely they’ll find enough common ground for a lasting agreement.

thisisit 6mo ago

I'd say more like a loss for the US than a win for Iran. > 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. Everyone knew from the beginning that closing the strait was something Iran would do. But it is current US government that is either inept or too smart for their own good and thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use, it will not impact them. They didn't care for the consequences and it came back to bite them. Also, wasn't it that even if the war was stop/ceasefire oil prices will take a long time to recover? If that is true the domestic pop getting pissed might be true even with this ceasefire and it will hurt the current government in their upcoming elections. > 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. More like galvanized people against a common enemy. Regime is going to come down hard on the protestors than ever before and some might find it easier to blame the power which claimed to deliver the regime change. Then Americans will talk about how Iranians hate their way of life and the attack was justified.

_heimdall 6mo ago
> thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use I have to assume that at least someone in the room was well aware that all oil is not created equal and that US refineries were designed from the beginning for Venezuelan and similar oil rather than US oil.
- citrin_ru 6mo ago
  Even if US refineries were designed for US oil to keep domestic prices low one would have to introduce export restrictions because oil is a global commondity. Big oil will not be happy about that and it seems they have a great influence over the respublican party and Trump.
  - _heimdall 6mo ago
    Oh I expect its a very real possibility that the oil industry would just be nationalized if push came to shove.

4ndrewl 6mo ago

The real winners are those psychic commodities/future traders and the arms industry. Again.

smdz 6mo ago

This war (not the ceasefire) is basically a loss for the USA. Many people don't yet grasp the scale of the reputational, economic, and power damage that has occurred and will continue to occur.

littlestymaar 6mo ago
The US foreign policy has perfected the art of turning a stream of tactical victories into a strategic defeat. They used to spend years to do that, now they managed to do it in just over a month.
BatteryMountain 6mo ago
Just the attack on data centers has caused certain conversations in my circles that basically comes to down to some guys will try to get off of foreign clouds and into local hosting in their own countries (most seems keen for co-location hosting because of the static ip ranges & other admin sugar and reliable power; not concerned about hardware pricing as the hardware is less than 10% of the equation). All thanks to a couple attacks on data centers that we are not even hosting on.

maxglute 6mo ago

More loss for US, as in customary US not winning fast is functionally the same as losing. Heavy weight boxing a teen it should have brained in round 1. Teen lands a few punches back is embarrassing. Teen slapping heavy weights protectorates more embarrassing. Teen surviving week 4 is like heavy weight failing to brain teen by round 7. At this point it's looking like we're going to round 10 TKO, whoever "wins", US loses. People still going to wank over if US wins on TKO because muh K:D ratio or something, but real signal is teen's strategy was to survive hits and ultimately 10000s of heavy weight hits weren't haymaker strong enough to brain a teen. At >2% of GDP of PRC, Iran is basically teen/toddler territory that drew down significant % of US active force and munition stockpiles, so there's also layer of US losing more based on relative effort expended.

actionfromafar 6mo ago
To China, the conflict is a clear demonstration of the impotency of the US war machine. Before this "military operation", one could imagine the US defending Taiwan. Now, it's a laughable thought. It couldn't even if it wanted to.
- shash 6mo ago
  Remember that the defender has home team advantage. That’s precisely what you see happening both in Iran and Ukraine. That advantage exists with Taiwan. There’s a reason that China hasn’t made a move in all these years, and the US is only one part of that equation.
  - maxglute 6mo ago
    Homefield advantage is relative, between Ukraine - Iran - Gaza, Taiwan is closer to Gaza, which is to say not much after mitigating outside spoilers. Maybe less than Gaza vs force disparity involved. US is/was one part of equation, but big part of equation.

refurb 6mo ago

This is in no way a win for Iran. Hundreds of regime leadership is gone. Massive destruction of infrastructure. Bombed all their neighbors who weren’t even at war with them. Pushed those same neighbors into closer partnership with Israel and the US. Now the regime is severely weakened.

intended 6mo ago
This would make sense if the regime command structure had apparently not designed itself for this exact type of conflict. They were in a fight, took losses, and made significant gains. They proved their planning was correct, that the distributed nature of their power grid was correct, that they are able to project force and genuinely destabilize the strait. Things have been proven that were previously uncertain, and they have not been proven in America’s favour. Crucially America’s ability to defend its allies was tested and found wanting. The entire conflict was of unit economics, in that a cheap 30k drone beat out billion dollar investments. America also spent the better part of this administration alienating themselves from the one allied nation with extensive drone combat experience.
- iugtmkbdfil834 6mo ago
  Admittedly, this is the interesting part. Ukraine via its leader apparently did try to reach US in exchange for money, but, and there stories get confused, was ignored. I have to wonder if Trump has some actual fixed winners table in his mind ( because he does not seem to follow the most optimal path ).
  - deleted 6mo ago
    [deleted]
thejohnconway 6mo ago
None of those things matter if they survive and control the straight, which seems to be the situation. The toll revenue will be enough to rebuild several times over. They have proven that they can absolutely crush the gulf states with missiles and drones. I think the fact that Trump accepted their 10-point plan as the basis for negotiation, instead of them accepting the American 15-point plan, makes it obvious this is America taking the loss.

dgellow 6mo ago

Also, I would expect Iran cultural influence to continue to grow in its region. And they now have the strait toll as a new source of revenue. Note that it is also a win for Israel, so far. They are still invading Lebanon with no plans to stop. And a clear loss for the US who literally got nothing from that whole thing and triggered a massive global crisis

watwut 6mo ago

> 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. More like: Reminded the anti regime population that US has no interest to help them and will happily kill all Iranians and proudly destroy all of civil infrastructure. > 5. Destabilised the whole region costing the ME lots and lots of money. In this case, the destabilization is firmly the fault of USA and Israel.

andai 6mo ago

Parable of the sun and the wind..

ropable 6mo ago

It's very hard for me to see this war (regardless of final outcome) as anything other than a massive strategic loss for the USA. The US has spent a stunning amount of materiel and political capital to achieve nothing of lasting benefit to themselves, and have killed thousands while further destabilising and impoverishing the region. A catastrophic outcome. It's absolutely possible for both sides in a major conflict to lose, and they've managed to do so in this case.

znnajdla 6mo ago

6. Permanently destroyed many US bases and radar installations in the Middle East which aren’t coming back anytime soon.

Invictus0 6mo ago

Only on hacker news is the destruction of all your military hardware and the death of all your leaders a win

deadbabe 6mo ago
Those can be replaced. The damage to US reputation and influence will last the rest of our lives.
- deleted 6mo ago
  [deleted]
Revanche1367 6mo ago
Not just HN, just about all social media except far-right Trumpist echo-chambers have been calling it a Iran win or at least a US loss.
mrguyorama 6mo ago
Buddy France lost it's country and still won WW2 It's the war, not the battle.
- Invictus0 6mo ago
  https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/sivy5j/comment/hvi3157 https://www.reddit.com/r/history/comments/sivy5j/comment/hvi... Boy is that a terrible analogy. France "won" nothing, they actively collaborated with the Nazis, and they were pretty useless for most of the war.