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> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade. The US is stopping other countries from

by oa335 6mo ago

> Freedom of navigation is a core global principal and Iran has no legitimate right to stop other countries from trade. The US is stopping other countries from trading with Cuba and Iran. The US doesn’t have the “right” to do that, but it doesn’t need the “right”. It only needs power. Iran has power over the Hormuz and is exerting it for what it deems is in its interest. > Gulf States themselves will go to war over it Maybe? But I doubt it - $1 per barrel amounts to like 1-2% of the price of oil. They may not like it but it’s not going to affect their bottom line nearly as much as closing the strait for 1 week will. A war with Iran would mean utter destruction of all oil infrastructure in the region, so probably better to pay 2% to avoid that.

ericmay 6mo ago
If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too and any moralistic argument seems easy to shelve. It cuts both ways. The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a tax to Iran. It’s a matter of principle - can’t live as a hostage and this is the weakest that the Iranian regime has been in quite some time. Better to keep the straight closed and make it painful for everyone else too.
- oa335 6mo ago
  > If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too Yes, that’s exactly my point. any country can do whatever they want … within the limits of their powers. What is currently stopping US/Israel from forcing Iran to open the strait of Hormuz? I don’t believe they have the ability to take out enough of Iran’s missiles/drones to prevent Iran from exerting its control of the Strait. > It’s a matter of principle “ Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Thucydides
  - ericmay 6mo ago
    [flagged]
    - oa335 6mo ago
      > Sounds good - and the US can bomb Iran. Might makes right. Might doesn’t make “right” but it determines geopolitical realities. > Iran doesn’t control the straight though. Then why was Trump demanding that Iran “open the fuckin’ Strait”? “Transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of what it was before the Iran conflict” https://maritime-executive.com/article/traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-ticks-up-but-iran-retains-control https://maritime-executive.com/article/traffic-through-strai...
      - ericmay 6mo ago
        > Then why was Trump demanding that Iran “open the fuckin’ Strait”? It’s a figure of speech. The Straight is open. There are no ships besides the US Navy and those which it allows to transit the Straight. But ships are worried about potential attacks from Iranian missiles since we haven’t cleared all of the launchers and missile depots out yet - Trump wants them to stop launching missiles so folks don’t fear being indiscriminately shot at or blown up for exercising their right to trade. You are trying to play a semantic game around “closed” or “open” here because you think Iran has the upper hand and it makes you feel good. US said stop bombing ships or we will really come and obliterate your country, and they said yes great satan we will stop launching missiles at ships. Iran didn’t force the US to the table. Besides MAGA folks spending a boatload of cash on gas for their trucks the economic impact is minimal. We just had $5-$6/gallon gas in 2022 and got along just fine.
    - albatross79 6mo ago
      That's veto power, what other kind of control do they need?
    - 8note 6mo ago
      its not particularly might makes right, but bargaining knowing that war is costly. iran could attack every ship that goes through the strait, but that would cost iran both in actual missiles/drones, and an opportunity cost of getting its own ships through, missing a potential toll, and missing potential benefits from being neighbor to rich states. Not to mention that the shots mean that other countries will want to respond even with might, most conflicts end in a negotiated settlement, and that approximates what each side of a conflict thinks would be the result of fighting the war, plus or minus some bargaining range. its still expensive for the mighty to fight the war, and better for everyone to accept the result of war without fighting see: the youtube channel "lines on maps" aka "william spaniel" to hear it from an expert in the field of crisis bargaining
  - thaumasiotes 6mo ago
    “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” —Thucydides You can't honestly attribute that quotation to Thucydides. The idea appears in his work, but he specifically attributes it to other unnamed parties. It receives this immediate response: As we think, at any rate, it is expedient — we speak as we are obliged, since you enjoin us to let right alone and talk only of interest — that you should not destroy what is our common protection, the privilege of being allowed in danger to invoke what is fair and right, and even to profit by arguments not strictly valid if they can be got to pass current. And you are as much interested in this as any, as your fall would be a signal for the heaviest vengeance and an example for the world to meditate upon.
    - oa335 6mo ago
      The quote is part of the Melian Dialogue, which is regarded as a dramatization of the events leading up to the siege and conquest of Melos by the Athenians. I think it’s appropriate to attribute the quote to Thucydides. The arguments the Melians use against Athenians reasons for conquest end up going unheeded though - Athens conquers Melos and enslaves its inhabitants.
      - thaumasiotes 6mo ago
        The arguments that the Athenians give also go unheeded. Nobody gives any arguments that have an effect. What do you want to conclude from that? > I think it’s appropriate to attribute the quote to Thucydides. Sure, just as appropriate as attributing "Somalis should go back to where they came from" to NBC. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-ilhan-omar-garbage-somalis-go-back-came-from-rcna247041 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-il...
- expedition32 6mo ago
  We all live as hostages to America. Well except China. Not even Trump is insane enough to mess with them the PLA shoots back.
kbutler 6mo ago
Closing the strait for 1 week is 1.9% of annual traffic if equally distributed, so it is very similar.
- oa335 6mo ago
  Exactly, I think the Iranis are shrewd enough to price their tax so that it looks attractive to the alternative.

by oa335 6mo ago

ericmay 6mo ago

If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too and any moralistic argument seems easy to shelve. It cuts both ways. The Gulf States aren’t going to pay a tax to Iran. It’s a matter of principle - can’t live as a hostage and this is the weakest that the Iranian regime has been in quite some time. Better to keep the straight closed and make it painful for everyone else too.

oa335 6mo ago
> If you want to argue from a power prospective then the US and Israel can just do whatever they want too Yes, that’s exactly my point. any country can do whatever they want … within the limits of their powers. What is currently stopping US/Israel from forcing Iran to open the strait of Hormuz? I don’t believe they have the ability to take out enough of Iran’s missiles/drones to prevent Iran from exerting its control of the Strait. > It’s a matter of principle “ Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Thucydides
- ericmay 6mo ago
  [flagged]
  - oa335 6mo ago
    > Sounds good - and the US can bomb Iran. Might makes right. Might doesn’t make “right” but it determines geopolitical realities. > Iran doesn’t control the straight though. Then why was Trump demanding that Iran “open the fuckin’ Strait”? “Transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains a fraction of what it was before the Iran conflict” https://maritime-executive.com/article/traffic-through-strait-of-hormuz-ticks-up-but-iran-retains-control https://maritime-executive.com/article/traffic-through-strai...
    - ericmay 6mo ago
      > Then why was Trump demanding that Iran “open the fuckin’ Strait”? It’s a figure of speech. The Straight is open. There are no ships besides the US Navy and those which it allows to transit the Straight. But ships are worried about potential attacks from Iranian missiles since we haven’t cleared all of the launchers and missile depots out yet - Trump wants them to stop launching missiles so folks don’t fear being indiscriminately shot at or blown up for exercising their right to trade. You are trying to play a semantic game around “closed” or “open” here because you think Iran has the upper hand and it makes you feel good. US said stop bombing ships or we will really come and obliterate your country, and they said yes great satan we will stop launching missiles at ships. Iran didn’t force the US to the table. Besides MAGA folks spending a boatload of cash on gas for their trucks the economic impact is minimal. We just had $5-$6/gallon gas in 2022 and got along just fine.
  - albatross79 6mo ago
    That's veto power, what other kind of control do they need?
  - 8note 6mo ago
    its not particularly might makes right, but bargaining knowing that war is costly. iran could attack every ship that goes through the strait, but that would cost iran both in actual missiles/drones, and an opportunity cost of getting its own ships through, missing a potential toll, and missing potential benefits from being neighbor to rich states. Not to mention that the shots mean that other countries will want to respond even with might, most conflicts end in a negotiated settlement, and that approximates what each side of a conflict thinks would be the result of fighting the war, plus or minus some bargaining range. its still expensive for the mighty to fight the war, and better for everyone to accept the result of war without fighting see: the youtube channel "lines on maps" aka "william spaniel" to hear it from an expert in the field of crisis bargaining
- thaumasiotes 6mo ago
  “Right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” —Thucydides You can't honestly attribute that quotation to Thucydides. The idea appears in his work, but he specifically attributes it to other unnamed parties. It receives this immediate response: As we think, at any rate, it is expedient — we speak as we are obliged, since you enjoin us to let right alone and talk only of interest — that you should not destroy what is our common protection, the privilege of being allowed in danger to invoke what is fair and right, and even to profit by arguments not strictly valid if they can be got to pass current. And you are as much interested in this as any, as your fall would be a signal for the heaviest vengeance and an example for the world to meditate upon.
  - oa335 6mo ago
    The quote is part of the Melian Dialogue, which is regarded as a dramatization of the events leading up to the siege and conquest of Melos by the Athenians. I think it’s appropriate to attribute the quote to Thucydides. The arguments the Melians use against Athenians reasons for conquest end up going unheeded though - Athens conquers Melos and enslaves its inhabitants.
    - thaumasiotes 6mo ago
      The arguments that the Athenians give also go unheeded. Nobody gives any arguments that have an effect. What do you want to conclude from that? > I think it’s appropriate to attribute the quote to Thucydides. Sure, just as appropriate as attributing "Somalis should go back to where they came from" to NBC. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-ilhan-omar-garbage-somalis-go-back-came-from-rcna247041 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-il...
expedition32 6mo ago
We all live as hostages to America. Well except China. Not even Trump is insane enough to mess with them the PLA shoots back.

kbutler 6mo ago

Closing the strait for 1 week is 1.9% of annual traffic if equally distributed, so it is very similar.

oa335 6mo ago
Exactly, I think the Iranis are shrewd enough to price their tax so that it looks attractive to the alternative.