3 ms·

They went from $9b ARR at the end of 2025 to $30b ARR today. That's more than 3x the size in 3 months. I expect growing pains. For some context, they added 2x

They went from $9b ARR at the end of 2025 to $30b ARR today. That's more than 3x the size in 3 months. I expect growing pains. For some context, they added 2x Palantir or .75x Shopify or .68x Adobe annual revenue in March alone.

samlinnfer 7mo ago
And they are early adopters of the vibe coding paradigm, having a 100% Claude generated codebase.
- aurareturn 7mo ago
  I assume most of their outages is related to this insane scaling and lack of available compute. Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality. My codebase quality and overall app experience has improved since I started using agents to code. You can leverage AI to test as well as write new code.
  - samlinnfer 7mo ago
    Well if we use Claude Code's code quality as a benchmark ...
  - _fat_santa 7mo ago
    After the CC leak last week I took a look at their codebase and my biggest criticism is they seem to never do refactoring passes. Personally I write something like 80-90% of my code with agents now but after they finish up, it's critical that you spin up another agent to clean up the code that the first one wrote. Looking at their code it's clear they do not do this (or do this enough). Like the main file being something like 4000 LOC with 10 different functions all jammed in the same file. And this sort of pattern is all over the place in the code.
    - PopePompus 7mo ago
      How do you do the cleanup? Just /simplify or something you rolled yourself?
      - _fat_santa 7mo ago
        It's not an automated process (at least in my case). I primarily use Codex so I will do the initial pass with 5.3 or 5.4 xhigh and then cleanup with spark on medium or low. Spark is great for this kind of cleanup work because the feedback loop is so tight compared to just about anything else. It's quite hampered by a very small context window but in the context of cleanup/refactoring that's more of a feature than a bug IMHO. My suggestion for folks that want to do this is make sure you keep reasoning low. The cleanup should be very much human directed and derived from your "taste", at that point you don't want the model to think at all and just blindly do what you tell it to. You want reasoning to be just high enough so it doesn't eff up the code in the process.
    - sheepscreek 7mo ago
      I have a buddy who used to work at Shopify and was proud about having sprints dedicated to removing unused features. This is really underrated but is the only reliable way to prevent bloat. Oh and getting rid of bloat is way more satisfying!
    - jvuygbbkuurx 7mo ago
      If that works it's already built in the system
  - RC_ITR 7mo ago
    Isn't the whole selling point of AI agents that you now can do things like scale 3x without scaling your team accordingly?
    - aurareturn 7mo ago
      I assume so. They're doing it with around 99% uptime.
      - daveguy 7mo ago
        Or, to put it another way, almost 2 9s.
    - monooso 7mo ago
      I haven't seen anyone claim that applies to infrastructure or compute.
      - dpark 7mo ago
        Since apparently LLMs have also conquered physics, “Claude, transmute this lead to gold for me.”
        RC_ITR 7mo ago
        Yeah, it's almost like the point I was making is that everyone is overselling AI agents' capabilities.
        dpark 7mo ago
        I’m sure someone is out there claiming that AI is going to solve all your business’s problems no matter what they are. Remotely sane people are saying it will solve (or drastically improve) certain classes of problems. 3x code? Sure. 3x the physical hardware in a data center? Surely not.
      - RC_ITR 7mo ago
        Implying that software is somehow divorce from Infrastructure/compute efficiency and utilization isn't a claim I've seen many make either.
  - CharlieDigital 7mo ago
    > I assume most of their outages is related to this insane scaling and lack of available compute. > > Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality Scalability is a factor of smart/practical architectural decisions. Scalability doesn't happen for free and isn't emergent (the exact opposite is true) unless it is explicitly designed for. Problem is that ceding more of the decision making to the agent means that there's less intentionality in the design and likely a contributor to scaling pains.
    - aurareturn 7mo ago
      My theory is that most of their outages are compute and scale related. IE. A few GPU racks blows out and some customers see errors. They don't have any redundant compute as backup because supply is constrained right now. They're willing to lower reliability to maximize revenue.
    - colordrops 7mo ago
      Why would you think that the person you are replying to didn't design in scalability? What exactly are emergent features when vibe coding? If scalability is an explicit requirement it can be done.
      - CharlieDigital 7mo ago
        > What exactly are emergent features when vibe coding? Regression to the mean. See the other HN thread[0] The LLM has no concept of "taste" on its own. Scalability, in particular, is a problem that goes beyond the code itself and also includes decisions that happen outside of the codebase. Infrastructure and "platform" in particular has a big impact on how to scale an application and dataset. [0] https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/ai-may-be-making-us-think-and-write-more-alike/ https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/ai-may-be-making-us-th...
    - bpodgursky 7mo ago
      This is only true for small companies that can infinitely scale within AWS without anyone noticing. You are talking about software scaling patterns, Anthropic is running into hardware limitations because they are maxing out entire datacenters. That's not an architectural decision it's a financial gamble to front-run tens of billions in capacity ahead of demand.
twelvechairs 7mo ago
Yeah its huge demand upswing from the growth of openclaw and similar pushing resources. Very clear from recent changes and announcement around this [0] Fwiw there are worse delays from second tier providers like moonshot's kimik2.5 that are also popular for agentic use. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47633396 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47633396
nonameiguess 7mo ago
To be clear, this number will probably end up being reasonably accurate, but it is a pet peeve nonetheless in the startup world how shitty these financial metrics have become. We're three months from the end of 2025. You'd think we'd want to see at least two years of $30 billion dollar revenue earned in each year before we say with any meaningful level of statistical validity that they have $30 billion in "annual recurring" revenue.
rpozarickij 7mo ago
It's also worth keeping in mind that Anthropic's compute needs are nothing like those of a company like Shopify or Adobe, so revenue might not paint accurately enough the picture of what they're dealing with right now.

samlinnfer 7mo ago

And they are early adopters of the vibe coding paradigm, having a 100% Claude generated codebase.

aurareturn 7mo ago
I assume most of their outages is related to this insane scaling and lack of available compute. Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality. My codebase quality and overall app experience has improved since I started using agents to code. You can leverage AI to test as well as write new code.
- samlinnfer 7mo ago
  Well if we use Claude Code's code quality as a benchmark ...
- _fat_santa 7mo ago
  After the CC leak last week I took a look at their codebase and my biggest criticism is they seem to never do refactoring passes. Personally I write something like 80-90% of my code with agents now but after they finish up, it's critical that you spin up another agent to clean up the code that the first one wrote. Looking at their code it's clear they do not do this (or do this enough). Like the main file being something like 4000 LOC with 10 different functions all jammed in the same file. And this sort of pattern is all over the place in the code.
  - PopePompus 7mo ago
    How do you do the cleanup? Just /simplify or something you rolled yourself?
    - _fat_santa 7mo ago
      It's not an automated process (at least in my case). I primarily use Codex so I will do the initial pass with 5.3 or 5.4 xhigh and then cleanup with spark on medium or low. Spark is great for this kind of cleanup work because the feedback loop is so tight compared to just about anything else. It's quite hampered by a very small context window but in the context of cleanup/refactoring that's more of a feature than a bug IMHO. My suggestion for folks that want to do this is make sure you keep reasoning low. The cleanup should be very much human directed and derived from your "taste", at that point you don't want the model to think at all and just blindly do what you tell it to. You want reasoning to be just high enough so it doesn't eff up the code in the process.
  - sheepscreek 7mo ago
    I have a buddy who used to work at Shopify and was proud about having sprints dedicated to removing unused features. This is really underrated but is the only reliable way to prevent bloat. Oh and getting rid of bloat is way more satisfying!
  - jvuygbbkuurx 7mo ago
    If that works it's already built in the system
- RC_ITR 7mo ago
  Isn't the whole selling point of AI agents that you now can do things like scale 3x without scaling your team accordingly?
  - aurareturn 7mo ago
    I assume so. They're doing it with around 99% uptime.
    - daveguy 7mo ago
      Or, to put it another way, almost 2 9s.
  - monooso 7mo ago
    I haven't seen anyone claim that applies to infrastructure or compute.
    - dpark 7mo ago
      Since apparently LLMs have also conquered physics, “Claude, transmute this lead to gold for me.”
      - RC_ITR 7mo ago
        Yeah, it's almost like the point I was making is that everyone is overselling AI agents' capabilities.
        dpark 7mo ago
        I’m sure someone is out there claiming that AI is going to solve all your business’s problems no matter what they are. Remotely sane people are saying it will solve (or drastically improve) certain classes of problems. 3x code? Sure. 3x the physical hardware in a data center? Surely not.
    - RC_ITR 7mo ago
      Implying that software is somehow divorce from Infrastructure/compute efficiency and utilization isn't a claim I've seen many make either.
- CharlieDigital 7mo ago
  > I assume most of their outages is related to this insane scaling and lack of available compute. > > Vibe coding doesn't automatically mean lower quality Scalability is a factor of smart/practical architectural decisions. Scalability doesn't happen for free and isn't emergent (the exact opposite is true) unless it is explicitly designed for. Problem is that ceding more of the decision making to the agent means that there's less intentionality in the design and likely a contributor to scaling pains.
  - aurareturn 7mo ago
    My theory is that most of their outages are compute and scale related. IE. A few GPU racks blows out and some customers see errors. They don't have any redundant compute as backup because supply is constrained right now. They're willing to lower reliability to maximize revenue.
  - colordrops 7mo ago
    Why would you think that the person you are replying to didn't design in scalability? What exactly are emergent features when vibe coding? If scalability is an explicit requirement it can be done.
    - CharlieDigital 7mo ago
      > What exactly are emergent features when vibe coding? Regression to the mean. See the other HN thread[0] The LLM has no concept of "taste" on its own. Scalability, in particular, is a problem that goes beyond the code itself and also includes decisions that happen outside of the codebase. Infrastructure and "platform" in particular has a big impact on how to scale an application and dataset. [0] https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/ai-may-be-making-us-think-and-write-more-alike/ https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/ai-may-be-making-us-th...
  - bpodgursky 7mo ago
    This is only true for small companies that can infinitely scale within AWS without anyone noticing. You are talking about software scaling patterns, Anthropic is running into hardware limitations because they are maxing out entire datacenters. That's not an architectural decision it's a financial gamble to front-run tens of billions in capacity ahead of demand.

twelvechairs 7mo ago

Yeah its huge demand upswing from the growth of openclaw and similar pushing resources. Very clear from recent changes and announcement around this [0] Fwiw there are worse delays from second tier providers like moonshot's kimik2.5 that are also popular for agentic use. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47633396 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47633396

nonameiguess 7mo ago

To be clear, this number will probably end up being reasonably accurate, but it is a pet peeve nonetheless in the startup world how shitty these financial metrics have become. We're three months from the end of 2025. You'd think we'd want to see at least two years of $30 billion dollar revenue earned in each year before we say with any meaningful level of statistical validity that they have $30 billion in "annual recurring" revenue.

rpozarickij 7mo ago

It's also worth keeping in mind that Anthropic's compute needs are nothing like those of a company like Shopify or Adobe, so revenue might not paint accurately enough the picture of what they're dealing with right now.