5 ms·

At today's prices, that's around 1400 tons of gold. It's made out of lots of individual gold bars, and they can certainly move it in increments, by road then ai

At today's prices, that's around 1400 tons of gold. It's made out of lots of individual gold bars, and they can certainly move it in increments, by road then air or sea, unless the American government stops them doing it. People ship million-dollar assets all the time. It would be a huge task to make 160,000 such trips, though.

fakedang 6mo ago
They can also sell it in the US, buy it in Europe, as France did. It's also the preferable route because IIRC the Chinese have had suspicions about the quality of their gold holdings held in the US for sometime now. That is, US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world.
- shrubble 6mo ago
  The usual claim, which is difficult to prove without physical access to the bars, is that some bars were made by melting and casting the confiscated gold coins that FDR gathered in the 1930s. Such bars would not be to the 99.9 percent gold standard set by the London Bullion Market Association. They would instead be at about 90% purity, since American gold coins had 10% copper added, which makes the gold harder and more wear-resistant. See https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-successfully-wraps-up-run-up-phase-of-gold-repatriation-670568 https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank... however, no explanation is given, only that the bars were melted, purified and then recast.
- radiator 6mo ago
  > US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world ... to put it mildly. Nobody has audited the gold in decades and even its owners (banks of foreign countries) are not allowed to inspect it.
- raphman 6mo ago
  The Deutsche Bundesbank has a long list of every single gold bar in their possession (including those currently stored in GB and USA), including their weight (to 0.1 gram) and purity (at least 995/1000 as far as I can tell). https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce1ae4042328093d247d0/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/goldbarrenliste-data.pdf https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce... - Federal Reserve Bank of New York starts at page 2016 (PDF:2019)
  - saguntum 6mo ago
    I don't read German well and don't care to run this through a translator, but this is fascinating. I wonder how this list was compiled, by whom, and when it is used (is the gold audited)? You could randomly sample bars from the list to check the status of the gold periodically. I'm curious if other countries maintain similar lists.
    - raphman 6mo ago
      I don't think they regularly audit the gold bars. But according to an article I read, the German Bundesbank used these lists to check off each of the bars transferred between 2013 and 2017 (when they transferred ~ 300 tons each from Paris and New York¹). Back then, they brought the gold bars to Germany, weighed them at multiple checkpoints, and melted them here. AFAIK, no discrepancies between list and actual weight/fineness were found. I think this list is not only used for internal audits but also to assure the public and banks that Germany indeed knows in detail where its gold is stored. ¹) https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schliesst-goldverlagerung-vorzeitig-ab-644174 https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schl... (in German)
  - fakedang 6mo ago
    Yeah, gold that hasn't been audited but only records held by USA's "Trust me bro"s.
PowerElectronix 6mo ago
Or like france did. Sell in the US, buy in london with delivery to your european vault of choice.
- forkerenok 6mo ago
  If they don't want to push down the prices with excess supply, they'd have to sell very slowly. Like France did.
  - SturgeonsLaw 6mo ago
    If they're buying the same amount elsewhere then the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies
    - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
      > the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies The arb means you’re still suffering a price difference. You’re just paying “the market” to solve it for you.
      - pjc50 6mo ago
        Yes, you're paying arbitrage instead of shipping fees. Which is not unreasonable for commodity markets with different settlement locations.
        IshKebab 6mo ago
        Yeah and in theory they should be equal.
        JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        > in theory they should be equal Related. Not equal.
9dev 6mo ago
> unless the American government stops them doing it. Like they had any authority to dictate what Germany can do with their property, but hey
- rrr_oh_man 6mo ago
  There’s nuance and a difference between ownership and possession
  - 9dev 6mo ago
    As is between authority and ability
- paganel 6mo ago
  Yes, it's called the nuclear umbrella, Potsdam '45 and the fact that the Soviets are out of the equation. Even with the Soviets in place the Americans had no second thoughts about getting rid of Bretton Woods when it suited them.
- SanjayMehta 6mo ago
  Possession is 90% ownership. In this case, especially with Trump, it's 100%

fakedang 6mo ago

They can also sell it in the US, buy it in Europe, as France did. It's also the preferable route because IIRC the Chinese have had suspicions about the quality of their gold holdings held in the US for sometime now. That is, US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world.

shrubble 6mo ago
The usual claim, which is difficult to prove without physical access to the bars, is that some bars were made by melting and casting the confiscated gold coins that FDR gathered in the 1930s. Such bars would not be to the 99.9 percent gold standard set by the London Bullion Market Association. They would instead be at about 90% purity, since American gold coins had 10% copper added, which makes the gold harder and more wear-resistant. See https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-successfully-wraps-up-run-up-phase-of-gold-repatriation-670568 https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank... however, no explanation is given, only that the bars were melted, purified and then recast.
radiator 6mo ago
> US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world ... to put it mildly. Nobody has audited the gold in decades and even its owners (banks of foreign countries) are not allowed to inspect it.
raphman 6mo ago
The Deutsche Bundesbank has a long list of every single gold bar in their possession (including those currently stored in GB and USA), including their weight (to 0.1 gram) and purity (at least 995/1000 as far as I can tell). https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce1ae4042328093d247d0/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/goldbarrenliste-data.pdf https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce... - Federal Reserve Bank of New York starts at page 2016 (PDF:2019)
- saguntum 6mo ago
  I don't read German well and don't care to run this through a translator, but this is fascinating. I wonder how this list was compiled, by whom, and when it is used (is the gold audited)? You could randomly sample bars from the list to check the status of the gold periodically. I'm curious if other countries maintain similar lists.
  - raphman 6mo ago
    I don't think they regularly audit the gold bars. But according to an article I read, the German Bundesbank used these lists to check off each of the bars transferred between 2013 and 2017 (when they transferred ~ 300 tons each from Paris and New York¹). Back then, they brought the gold bars to Germany, weighed them at multiple checkpoints, and melted them here. AFAIK, no discrepancies between list and actual weight/fineness were found. I think this list is not only used for internal audits but also to assure the public and banks that Germany indeed knows in detail where its gold is stored. ¹) https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schliesst-goldverlagerung-vorzeitig-ab-644174 https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schl... (in German)
- fakedang 6mo ago
  Yeah, gold that hasn't been audited but only records held by USA's "Trust me bro"s.

PowerElectronix 6mo ago

Or like france did. Sell in the US, buy in london with delivery to your european vault of choice.

forkerenok 6mo ago
If they don't want to push down the prices with excess supply, they'd have to sell very slowly. Like France did.
- SturgeonsLaw 6mo ago
  If they're buying the same amount elsewhere then the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies
  - JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
    > the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies The arb means you’re still suffering a price difference. You’re just paying “the market” to solve it for you.
    - pjc50 6mo ago
      Yes, you're paying arbitrage instead of shipping fees. Which is not unreasonable for commodity markets with different settlement locations.
      - IshKebab 6mo ago
        Yeah and in theory they should be equal.
        JumpCrisscross 6mo ago
        > in theory they should be equal Related. Not equal.

9dev 6mo ago

> unless the American government stops them doing it. Like they had any authority to dictate what Germany can do with their property, but hey

rrr_oh_man 6mo ago
There’s nuance and a difference between ownership and possession
- 9dev 6mo ago
  As is between authority and ability
paganel 6mo ago
Yes, it's called the nuclear umbrella, Potsdam '45 and the fact that the Soviets are out of the equation. Even with the Soviets in place the Americans had no second thoughts about getting rid of Bretton Woods when it suited them.
SanjayMehta 6mo ago
Possession is 90% ownership. In this case, especially with Trump, it's 100%