4 ms·
Not really "should Germany move it?", rather "can Germany move it?"
by jjgreen 7mo ago
Not really "should Germany move it?", rather "can Germany move it?"
- lambdaone 7mo agoAt today's prices, that's around 1400 tons of gold. It's made out of lots of individual gold bars, and they can certainly move it in increments, by road then air or sea, unless the American government stops them doing it. People ship million-dollar assets all the time. It would be a huge task to make 160,000 such trips, though.
- fakedang 7mo agoThey can also sell it in the US, buy it in Europe, as France did. It's also the preferable route because IIRC the Chinese have had suspicions about the quality of their gold holdings held in the US for sometime now. That is, US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world.
- shrubble 7mo agoThe usual claim, which is difficult to prove without physical access to the bars, is that some bars were made by melting and casting the confiscated gold coins that FDR gathered in the 1930s. Such bars would not be to the 99.9 percent gold standard set by the London Bullion Market Association. They would instead be at about 90% purity, since American gold coins had 10% copper added, which makes the gold harder and more wear-resistant. See https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank-successfully-wraps-up-run-up-phase-of-gold-repatriation-670568 https://www.bundesbank.de/en/press/press-releases/bundesbank... however, no explanation is given, only that the bars were melted, purified and then recast.
- radiator 7mo ago> US-stored gold is not of the same quality grade as in the rest of the world ... to put it mildly. Nobody has audited the gold in decades and even its owners (banks of foreign countries) are not allowed to inspect it.
- raphman 7mo agoThe Deutsche Bundesbank has a long list of every single gold bar in their possession (including those currently stored in GB and USA), including their weight (to 0.1 gram) and purity (at least 995/1000 as far as I can tell). https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce1ae4042328093d247d0/472B63F073F071307366337C94F8C870/goldbarrenliste-data.pdf https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/743058/9869caef634ce... - Federal Reserve Bank of New York starts at page 2016 (PDF:2019)
- saguntum 7mo agoI don't read German well and don't care to run this through a translator, but this is fascinating. I wonder how this list was compiled, by whom, and when it is used (is the gold audited)? You could randomly sample bars from the list to check the status of the gold periodically. I'm curious if other countries maintain similar lists.
- raphman 7mo agoI don't think they regularly audit the gold bars. But according to an article I read, the German Bundesbank used these lists to check off each of the bars transferred between 2013 and 2017 (when they transferred ~ 300 tons each from Paris and New York¹). Back then, they brought the gold bars to Germany, weighed them at multiple checkpoints, and melted them here. AFAIK, no discrepancies between list and actual weight/fineness were found. I think this list is not only used for internal audits but also to assure the public and banks that Germany indeed knows in detail where its gold is stored. ¹) https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schliesst-goldverlagerung-vorzeitig-ab-644174 https://www.bundesbank.de/de/aufgaben/themen/bundesbank-schl... (in German)
- fakedang 7mo agoYeah, gold that hasn't been audited but only records held by USA's "Trust me bro"s.
- PowerElectronix 7mo agoOr like france did. Sell in the US, buy in london with delivery to your european vault of choice.
- forkerenok 7mo agoIf they don't want to push down the prices with excess supply, they'd have to sell very slowly. Like France did.
- SturgeonsLaw 7mo agoIf they're buying the same amount elsewhere then the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago> the buy pressure equals the sell pressure, might make an arb opportunity across the currencies The arb means you’re still suffering a price difference. You’re just paying “the market” to solve it for you.
- pjc50 7mo agoYes, you're paying arbitrage instead of shipping fees. Which is not unreasonable for commodity markets with different settlement locations.
- IshKebab 7mo agoYeah and in theory they should be equal.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago> in theory they should be equal Related. Not equal.
- 9dev 7mo ago> unless the American government stops them doing it. Like they had any authority to dictate what Germany can do with their property, but hey
- rrr_oh_man 7mo agoThere’s nuance and a difference between ownership and possession
- 9dev 7mo agoAs is between authority and ability
- paganel 7mo agoYes, it's called the nuclear umbrella, Potsdam '45 and the fact that the Soviets are out of the equation. Even with the Soviets in place the Americans had no second thoughts about getting rid of Bretton Woods when it suited them.
- SanjayMehta 7mo agoPossession is 90% ownership. In this case, especially with Trump, it's 100%
- Joker_vD 7mo agoWell, France did it, sixty years ago, didn't it?
- chvid 7mo agoAnd the US almost killed their president for it.
- rrr_oh_man 7mo agoThere’s also the tinfoil theory that France did the same to Gaddafi
- pjc50 7mo agoWhat are you talking about?
- chvid 7mo agoThe unproven but persistent conspiracy theory that the US was behind one or more assassination attempts on Charles de Gaulle. Often brought up in connection with gold, the exorbitant privilege, and beer.
- Joker_vD 7mo agoIts persistence is truly a mystery. After all, the US never had, and probably never will, tried to overthrow or assassinate a country leader with strongly held anti-American views.
- jopsen 7mo agoOf course, why not? Imagine anything blocking it would crash wall street. Do you think Europeans are going to have a problem buying/selling US stonks any time soon?
- ekidd 7mo agoThe other article on France's gold reserves mentioned that France sold their older gold bars in the US, and used the money to purchase higher-standard gold bars in Europe. In their case, they did that over many decades and just finished now.
- tonfa 7mo ago> In their case, they did that over many decades and just finished now They repatriated the remaining gold (5% of reserve) over 2y. The bulk of the gold that was held in the US was moved back in 60s.
- jbverschoor 7mo agoAnd that is a way to cover up non-existence, packed as convenience
- functional_dev 7mo agoor rather "move when?" Moving 1,400 tonnes might take years. The window to act is closing.
- jopsen 7mo agoWindow is not closing.. the stonk market would go to zero. Any doubt about being able to move assets out of the US would cause a run on US stonks. Also the US has fairly strong private property rights.
- abdusco 7mo agoWe've seen time and again that rights and laws mean shit to the current administration.
- jopsen 7mo agoMy point is: Blocking withdrawal of financial assets from the US would be wall street ending. No foreign investors would put money into US stonks. It's not impossible, sure, but probably worse than the great depression.