4 ms·

It does seem like if I was China, this would be the perfect time to make a big geopolitical move: EU and Russia tied up with Ukraine and Iran, US & Gulf allies

It does seem like if I was China, this would be the perfect time to make a big geopolitical move: EU and Russia tied up with Ukraine and Iran, US & Gulf allies now stuck in a war zone, US showing aging tech with large exposure to new drone warfare. This seems likely the conflict that forces the US into an immediate course correction in military makeup, or suffer large and expensive mass casualties on the battlefield. What happened to Battleships after Aircraft Carriers entered the picture, comes to mind.

zugi 6mo ago
It would be, unless China isn't yet militarily ready. Also if China's Taiwan plan includes using surrogates like Iran to cause simultaneous trouble, then reducing Iran's capability asynchronously eliminates one US worry during a Taiwan scenario.
angry_octet 6mo ago
Don't interrupt your enemy when they are busy making mistakes. Iran is shaping up to be a quagmire worse than Afghanistan or Iraq. Even if Trump pulls back from the brink, the GCC economies are significantly damaged, Iran will extort a massive wergild, and European and Asian economies will suffer another energy shock. China is relatively unscathed.
- cyanydeez 6mo ago
  Iran is too close to china to make any real issue. USA can stop shooting themselves in the feet at any time and redirect to Taiwan. If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
  - angry_octet 6mo ago
    "any real issue"? Like crippling the world economy? They can extract a tithe on every gallon of oil leaving the Gulf. Without Qatari/Iranian natural gas there is a global energy crunch. South/Central America has no significant military opponents, most especially none that will consume large quantities of exquisite armaments. It would mostly consume Army resources in COIN, which they are extremely experienced with from Afghanistan. It's actually mystifying that Trump started the beef with Iran, when he could have just invaded Cuba and had an easy win. The Israeli factor of course, truly America's greatest weakness.
    - nyc_data_geek1 6mo ago
      Without Qatari helium, there's a massive global semiconductor crunch. The fertilizer crunch and food scarcity too. It's wild to me how oblivious ostensibly intelligent people on this site regularly manage to be.
      - angry_octet 6mo ago
        Yes, the downstream effects of the helium shortage are going to be extremely painful. Chip production, MRI machines, welding, many scientific uses. (We can't forget the previous era of US insanity in dumping the helium reserve under the 'party balloon gas' anti-science/anti-facts 1990s Congress.[1]) The world still produces enough fertiliser, but prices will rise significantly. The biggest producers (China, India, USA) also consume most of their supply, and China and India get their methane from elsewhere or from coal. Russia is a leading exporter, so they could easily tighten the screws now, leading to further economic shocks. Big importers will feel a crunch [2] and this will leader to significant crop price increases.[3] [1] https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/02/21/federal-government-helium-reserve https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/02/21/federal-governm... [2] https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/310210 https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/yea... [3] https://farmonaut.com/mining/largest-urea-producers-2026-global-supply-trends https://farmonaut.com/mining/largest-urea-producers-2026-glo...
        nyc_data_geek1 6mo ago
        Significant crop price increases, which tends to be bad news for anyone who eats food.
        abdusco 6mo ago
        Ugh. Gotta start eating cake again.
        expedition32 6mo ago
toast0 6mo ago
They don't need to do anything militarily. Just keep up with Belt and Road and being a stable trade partner while the US has a trade war with everyone and started an active war with Iran over nothing, and is threatening allies. Fill the vacuum the US left behind and see what happens when the US wants to put sanctions on China in the future.
- defrost 6mo ago
  Exactly, in the fall and aftermath of WWII the USofA Steven Bradbury'd it's way to No. #1 on the global pecking order. China, now, is ready to do as little as possible and free skate into that position by the same means.
- seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
  Ya, China will win by default, why do something stupid like Trump would? Make friends with the world, provide working affordable solutions to the high price of oil. Uhm, it’s like Trump is doing everything for China’s benefit.
  - jurgenburgen 6mo ago
    Autocrats tend to do stupid things as they become out of touch due to the culture of sycophancy around them. It doesn’t help that Xi is old and doesn’t have infinite time to build his legacy. Did everyone already forget the extreme Covid lockdowns in China?
    - jcgl 6mo ago
      Is it some sort of well-known fact that Xi has some egotistical need to build some kind of strongman legacy? I’m no expert, but the China that he has built is one of extreme competence and long-term thinking. It’d seem contradictory to compromise that for some flashy but ultimately unhelpful actions.
    - seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
      Xi is much younger than Trump. China still has lots of problems, they are just doing a few key things right in terms of tech tree development, while the USA is basically swimming backwards.
nacozarina 6mo ago
They are waiting for the political pendulum to complete its swing. Once the blue resurgence hits, US will be deeply distracted with domestic issues and too broke for adventures. Spring 2027 will be unseasonably hot…
tonyedgecombe 6mo ago
If China has any sense they will be looking at how well Iran and Ukraine is going for the invaders and maybe think twice before they make the same mistake.
- ciwolsey 6mo ago
  It's not going great for America.
UltraSane 6mo ago
Invading Taiwan now would be incredibly costly for China even if they win.
rasz 6mo ago
> perfect time Or not. China just saw two supposedly biggest military superpowers fail to achieve their military objectives. China supplied Iran with tons of most advanced SAM they could muster, and it took Iran over a month to shoot down _one_ 50 year old airframe. Gunning for Taiwan right now could provoke orange one to erase Iran oil infrastructure.

zugi 6mo ago

It would be, unless China isn't yet militarily ready. Also if China's Taiwan plan includes using surrogates like Iran to cause simultaneous trouble, then reducing Iran's capability asynchronously eliminates one US worry during a Taiwan scenario.

angry_octet 6mo ago

Don't interrupt your enemy when they are busy making mistakes. Iran is shaping up to be a quagmire worse than Afghanistan or Iraq. Even if Trump pulls back from the brink, the GCC economies are significantly damaged, Iran will extort a massive wergild, and European and Asian economies will suffer another energy shock. China is relatively unscathed.

cyanydeez 6mo ago
Iran is too close to china to make any real issue. USA can stop shooting themselves in the feet at any time and redirect to Taiwan. If China wanted USA tied up, theyd get south america or cuba problems, forces away from China.
- angry_octet 6mo ago
  "any real issue"? Like crippling the world economy? They can extract a tithe on every gallon of oil leaving the Gulf. Without Qatari/Iranian natural gas there is a global energy crunch. South/Central America has no significant military opponents, most especially none that will consume large quantities of exquisite armaments. It would mostly consume Army resources in COIN, which they are extremely experienced with from Afghanistan. It's actually mystifying that Trump started the beef with Iran, when he could have just invaded Cuba and had an easy win. The Israeli factor of course, truly America's greatest weakness.
  - nyc_data_geek1 6mo ago
    Without Qatari helium, there's a massive global semiconductor crunch. The fertilizer crunch and food scarcity too. It's wild to me how oblivious ostensibly intelligent people on this site regularly manage to be.
    - angry_octet 6mo ago
      Yes, the downstream effects of the helium shortage are going to be extremely painful. Chip production, MRI machines, welding, many scientific uses. (We can't forget the previous era of US insanity in dumping the helium reserve under the 'party balloon gas' anti-science/anti-facts 1990s Congress.[1]) The world still produces enough fertiliser, but prices will rise significantly. The biggest producers (China, India, USA) also consume most of their supply, and China and India get their methane from elsewhere or from coal. Russia is a leading exporter, so they could easily tighten the screws now, leading to further economic shocks. Big importers will feel a crunch [2] and this will leader to significant crop price increases.[3] [1] https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/02/21/federal-government-helium-reserve https://www.marketplace.org/story/2024/02/21/federal-governm... [2] https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/year/2023/tradeflow/Imports/partner/WLD/product/310210 https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/ALL/yea... [3] https://farmonaut.com/mining/largest-urea-producers-2026-global-supply-trends https://farmonaut.com/mining/largest-urea-producers-2026-glo...
      - nyc_data_geek1 6mo ago
        Significant crop price increases, which tends to be bad news for anyone who eats food.
        abdusco 6mo ago
        Ugh. Gotta start eating cake again.
        expedition32 6mo ago

toast0 6mo ago

They don't need to do anything militarily. Just keep up with Belt and Road and being a stable trade partner while the US has a trade war with everyone and started an active war with Iran over nothing, and is threatening allies. Fill the vacuum the US left behind and see what happens when the US wants to put sanctions on China in the future.

defrost 6mo ago
Exactly, in the fall and aftermath of WWII the USofA Steven Bradbury'd it's way to No. #1 on the global pecking order. China, now, is ready to do as little as possible and free skate into that position by the same means.
seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
Ya, China will win by default, why do something stupid like Trump would? Make friends with the world, provide working affordable solutions to the high price of oil. Uhm, it’s like Trump is doing everything for China’s benefit.
- jurgenburgen 6mo ago
  Autocrats tend to do stupid things as they become out of touch due to the culture of sycophancy around them. It doesn’t help that Xi is old and doesn’t have infinite time to build his legacy. Did everyone already forget the extreme Covid lockdowns in China?
  - jcgl 6mo ago
    Is it some sort of well-known fact that Xi has some egotistical need to build some kind of strongman legacy? I’m no expert, but the China that he has built is one of extreme competence and long-term thinking. It’d seem contradictory to compromise that for some flashy but ultimately unhelpful actions.
  - seanmcdirmid 6mo ago
    Xi is much younger than Trump. China still has lots of problems, they are just doing a few key things right in terms of tech tree development, while the USA is basically swimming backwards.

nacozarina 6mo ago

They are waiting for the political pendulum to complete its swing. Once the blue resurgence hits, US will be deeply distracted with domestic issues and too broke for adventures. Spring 2027 will be unseasonably hot…

tonyedgecombe 6mo ago

If China has any sense they will be looking at how well Iran and Ukraine is going for the invaders and maybe think twice before they make the same mistake.

ciwolsey 6mo ago
It's not going great for America.

UltraSane 6mo ago

Invading Taiwan now would be incredibly costly for China even if they win.

rasz 6mo ago

> perfect time Or not. China just saw two supposedly biggest military superpowers fail to achieve their military objectives. China supplied Iran with tons of most advanced SAM they could muster, and it took Iran over a month to shoot down _one_ 50 year old airframe. Gunning for Taiwan right now could provoke orange one to erase Iran oil infrastructure.