4 ms·

Hypothetically what would happen if China took over Tawain and TSMC?

by nullbyte808 6mo ago

gzread 6mo ago
All modern technology becomes unobtainable.
- genxy 6mo ago
  We are going to have that now in a couple of months regardless. So it won't matter if Taiwan's manufacturing base gets disrupted, the hardware will have already effectively stopped.
- 15155 6mo ago
  Wow, I wasn't aware Samsung, Intel, SMSC were unable to produce "modern technology." Not everything needs to be on a 3nm TSMC process, believe it or not.
  - CamperBob2 6mo ago
    TSMC makes a lot of stuff besides the EUV-scale parts that all the YouTube videos talk about. Almost everything you own that runs on electricity has some parts from Taiwan in it. TSMC alone makes MEMS components, CMOS image sensors, NVRAM, and mixed-signal/RF/analog parts to name a few. Also, people seem to assume that TSMC is an autonomous entity that receives sand at one loading dock and ships wafers out at another. That's not how fabs work. Their processes depend on a continuous supply of exotic materials and proprietary maintenance support from other countries, many of them US-aligned. There is no need to booby-trap any equipment at TSMC; it will grind to an unrecoverable halt soon after the first Chinese soldier fires a rifle or launches a missile. Hopefully Xi understands that. But some say it's a personal beef/legacy thing with him, and that he doesn't even care about TSMC.
throwaway2037 6mo ago
It will incredibly hard for China to conquer Taiwan. One hundred kilometers across the straits introduces a brutal geographic hurdle. If anything, the fabs will probably be severely damaged in the war. Plus most senior execs and elite engineers would be moved to US offices in Arizona.
pseudohadamard 6mo ago
There would be a brief, or possibly extended depending on how much damage the fabs took, outage, then it'd be back to business as usual.
- Sammi 6mo ago
  Russia weren't able to take Ukraine even when they were able to just drive their tanks right up to Kiyv. Modern warfare tech just favors the defender too much. China has ninety km of sea to cross before they even get to Taiwan. Missiles and drones have already taken out the Russian naval fleet in the Black Sea. China will be losing a lot in the same way if they ever attempt the crossing.
- crote 6mo ago
  It is public knowledge that the critical equipment has "kill switches". I wouldn't be surprised if there was enough damage that building a new fab from scratch is easier.
- pseudohadamard 6mo ago
  To the people who downvoted my comment: Are you doing that because you know it's not correct or because you really hope and wish it wasn't correct?
theshrike79 6mo ago
I’m not a military expert, but I’ll bet my left nut that if push comes to shove Taiwan will go scorched earth and just blow up the chip factories Which will put the whole world back for a decade while we rebuild the factories from scratch.

Hypothetically what would happen if China took over Tawain and TSMC?

gzread 6mo ago

All modern technology becomes unobtainable.

genxy 6mo ago
We are going to have that now in a couple of months regardless. So it won't matter if Taiwan's manufacturing base gets disrupted, the hardware will have already effectively stopped.
15155 6mo ago
Wow, I wasn't aware Samsung, Intel, SMSC were unable to produce "modern technology." Not everything needs to be on a 3nm TSMC process, believe it or not.
- CamperBob2 6mo ago
  TSMC makes a lot of stuff besides the EUV-scale parts that all the YouTube videos talk about. Almost everything you own that runs on electricity has some parts from Taiwan in it. TSMC alone makes MEMS components, CMOS image sensors, NVRAM, and mixed-signal/RF/analog parts to name a few. Also, people seem to assume that TSMC is an autonomous entity that receives sand at one loading dock and ships wafers out at another. That's not how fabs work. Their processes depend on a continuous supply of exotic materials and proprietary maintenance support from other countries, many of them US-aligned. There is no need to booby-trap any equipment at TSMC; it will grind to an unrecoverable halt soon after the first Chinese soldier fires a rifle or launches a missile. Hopefully Xi understands that. But some say it's a personal beef/legacy thing with him, and that he doesn't even care about TSMC.

throwaway2037 6mo ago

It will incredibly hard for China to conquer Taiwan. One hundred kilometers across the straits introduces a brutal geographic hurdle. If anything, the fabs will probably be severely damaged in the war. Plus most senior execs and elite engineers would be moved to US offices in Arizona.

pseudohadamard 6mo ago

There would be a brief, or possibly extended depending on how much damage the fabs took, outage, then it'd be back to business as usual.

Sammi 6mo ago
Russia weren't able to take Ukraine even when they were able to just drive their tanks right up to Kiyv. Modern warfare tech just favors the defender too much. China has ninety km of sea to cross before they even get to Taiwan. Missiles and drones have already taken out the Russian naval fleet in the Black Sea. China will be losing a lot in the same way if they ever attempt the crossing.
crote 6mo ago
It is public knowledge that the critical equipment has "kill switches". I wouldn't be surprised if there was enough damage that building a new fab from scratch is easier.
pseudohadamard 6mo ago
To the people who downvoted my comment: Are you doing that because you know it's not correct or because you really hope and wish it wasn't correct?

theshrike79 6mo ago

I’m not a military expert, but I’ll bet my left nut that if push comes to shove Taiwan will go scorched earth and just blow up the chip factories Which will put the whole world back for a decade while we rebuild the factories from scratch.