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If you understood history well, you would know that the Bronze Age collapse was actually very similar to what is happening today. Bronze Age empires relied on t

If you understood history well, you would know that the Bronze Age collapse was actually very similar to what is happening today. Bronze Age empires relied on the tin supply chain, with much of it produced in Afghanistan. The tin trade was enormous and profitable for all involved, but a series of constant disruptions caused the supply chain to break down, ending economical bronze production. The crisis was initiated by natural disasters and climate change, while The Sea Peoples, internal civil conflicts, and the dawn of chariot warfare were the final straws that unraveled the trade networks. The rulers of the various Bronze Age civilizations were in communication and were aware of what was happening, but they were unable to coordinate to stop it. You have too much confidence in people’s ability to identify a crisis across cultures and coordinate a collective response while accepting the often unequal costs that such a response would impose.

aogaili 7mo ago
I think we reached the end of your arguments because we are repeating. As I said, I don't think this is the same as the past, not even close. You can't assume the same results from a very different preconditions, yet you keep doing this. The second point, you don't need to see far to understand, especially after this war with Iran, that the world economy is one organism, and you can't shoot the feet and hope to run happily by the other.
- iamnothere 7mo ago
  It doesn’t matter that it is one organism, there are those who benefit from this arrangement and those who do not. Those who do not would often prefer to tear it down even at the cost of their own lives. This is human nature and cannot be changed. The increasing complexity of the supply chain comes with extreme fragility, and a series of cascading shocks could unravel it as in the Bronze Age. Over a sufficient time frame this is almost certain to occur. Regardless, I agree that we are done, I understand your perspective as I once believed as you do. Good luck, and hopefully you are correct, for everyone’s sake.
  - aogaili 7mo ago
    I don't want to appear argumentative but it ironic that you said that you once believe as I do, because I also once believed as you do. What changed my mind is technology and not human nature. 1) Advancement in AI/Robotics/Drones that enabled asymmetric warfare 2) And this is the point that I don't think you are seeing, is that I don't think the future governance will actually be done by humans. Maybe "older" folks here would think it is fantasy/sci-fi, but I think as AI improve, the world gets more complex, and human brain show more limitation nations will gradually opt to using AI to make key decisions. Eventually, I think the entire economy will be managed by some sort of AI or a network of AIs. And I think it is the new generation that will be building those systems, the ones currently growing with AI. I don't think you thought about that, because your point is that human nature is flawed, which I agree with, given that we are chimps with bigger brains. But that slight brain advantage gave us better technologies, and it seems to me it would either be the thing that completely destroy us or govern us to a better future (one would hope). The last point I want to add, humanity has walking on a very thin rope, and I think if we see a path forward, regardless of how narrow, we should aim for it. You keep your eyes on the rope when you know you can easily fall..and you certainly do not look back.

aogaili 7mo ago

I think we reached the end of your arguments because we are repeating. As I said, I don't think this is the same as the past, not even close. You can't assume the same results from a very different preconditions, yet you keep doing this. The second point, you don't need to see far to understand, especially after this war with Iran, that the world economy is one organism, and you can't shoot the feet and hope to run happily by the other.

iamnothere 7mo ago
It doesn’t matter that it is one organism, there are those who benefit from this arrangement and those who do not. Those who do not would often prefer to tear it down even at the cost of their own lives. This is human nature and cannot be changed. The increasing complexity of the supply chain comes with extreme fragility, and a series of cascading shocks could unravel it as in the Bronze Age. Over a sufficient time frame this is almost certain to occur. Regardless, I agree that we are done, I understand your perspective as I once believed as you do. Good luck, and hopefully you are correct, for everyone’s sake.
- aogaili 7mo ago
  I don't want to appear argumentative but it ironic that you said that you once believe as I do, because I also once believed as you do. What changed my mind is technology and not human nature. 1) Advancement in AI/Robotics/Drones that enabled asymmetric warfare 2) And this is the point that I don't think you are seeing, is that I don't think the future governance will actually be done by humans. Maybe "older" folks here would think it is fantasy/sci-fi, but I think as AI improve, the world gets more complex, and human brain show more limitation nations will gradually opt to using AI to make key decisions. Eventually, I think the entire economy will be managed by some sort of AI or a network of AIs. And I think it is the new generation that will be building those systems, the ones currently growing with AI. I don't think you thought about that, because your point is that human nature is flawed, which I agree with, given that we are chimps with bigger brains. But that slight brain advantage gave us better technologies, and it seems to me it would either be the thing that completely destroy us or govern us to a better future (one would hope). The last point I want to add, humanity has walking on a very thin rope, and I think if we see a path forward, regardless of how narrow, we should aim for it. You keep your eyes on the rope when you know you can easily fall..and you certainly do not look back.