4 ms·

I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything

by nine_k 7mo ago

I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.

randomNumber7 7mo ago
> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult. Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates. Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.
- nine_k 7mo ago
  Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] :-\ Valuations are not as crazy, but I bet there'll going to be a lot of demand in the coming decade, unfortunately. Chip production, too, of course, but it's overflowing with money already, apparently. It's growing though, because there are real actual shortages of stuff like RAM and SSDs, there's money to be made immediately if you can. Chinese RAM manufacturers are building out like crazy. [1]: https://www.ultimamarkets.com/academy/anduril-stock-price-how-to-buy-valuation-ipo/ https://www.ultimamarkets.com/academy/anduril-stock-price-ho... [2]: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RHEINMETALL-AG-436527/consensus/ https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RHEINMETALL-AG-43...
  - teeray 7mo ago
    > Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] Only viable if you’re okay with the ethical implications of funding war.
    - nine_k 7mo ago
      Would you be fine with the ethical implications of funding the industry to fight WWII? Would you consider funding Ukrainian military unethical? Or Taiwanese? This is, sadly, not theoretical, and I'm afraid we'll soon see more of such choices, not fewer.
  - zer00eyz 7mo ago
    > it would be military tech Anduril is the only company in this sector in the US that has any promise and they aren't even public. Most of us are not going to get our hands on this. Traditional defense sector looks more like Jeep, or Kodak...
    - nine_k 7mo ago
      The demand for more Patriot missiles is large, now that much of the stockpiles have suddenly been spent. Raytheon should do fine just based on that.
      - iririririr 7mo ago
        this admin will probably source patriots made in china
    - class3shock 7mo ago
      Anduril has yet to deliver anything of consequence. I hope they shake up the industry but to say they are the next hot thing and write off the primes at this stage is premature.
      - nine_k 7mo ago
        Invest in the Ukrainian drone producers which proved themselves on the literal battlefield! Some of the Gulf states already did.
- lotsofpulp 7mo ago
  > Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. These returns do not qualify as “enjoying stocks”? https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vt https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profi... The returns are higher than before 2008, the previous 15 years are unprecedented. https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re...
- triceratops 7mo ago
  > To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before Maybe in Europe. The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.
  - jacquesm 7mo ago
    "The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'" https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1929 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-cr...
    - triceratops 7mo ago
      Ok second best :-) I wasn't alive in the 1920s though
      - jacquesm 7mo ago
        True, but it is close enough in time that we should heed the lessons learned lest we repeat the experience.
        hunterpayne 7mo ago
        Do you know the actual lessons of that crash? Because we don't allow retail investors to go 10:1 on leverage anymore. There are a lot more lessons and none of them apply to this situation (even Glass-Steagall). This is much closer to the dot com crash in 2001 in how it looks, just a lot more concentrated and probably a bit bigger. If all you got is "number go up too much" then you probably shouldn't be investing your own money. The good news is that its almost all rich folks money on the line here and a small amount of dumb money. That's very different than, 2008 where it was mostly the indexes that got hit and that's more middle class/upper middle class concentrated.
- heathrow83829 7mo ago
  you gotta have some of all the above actually.
roncesvalles 7mo ago
It's the result of too much echo chambered bullshit floating around daily about how capable LLMs really are. It's literally crypto/blockchain all over again. It's one big lie that a lot of people have bought into which causes it to self-perpetuate, like religion.
bandrami 7mo ago
But they're really cagey about actually handing money over to them today
dlev_pika 7mo ago
I wonder what is not getting invested in bc AI has been crowding out everything else since 22. It has to be brutal out there for everybody else, if all the money is going to AI.
burnt-resistor 7mo ago
That's the tao of hyper-financialization. It must keep growing irrational exuberance big and up forever like stonks or it bursts like DotCom and tulip mania. It's funny money that cannot be liquidated for real value for more than a tiny fraction of the imaginary trillions being thrown around. Similarly, Nvidia $4T mkt cap makes absolutely no sense when it has but a few incestuous customers-parters-investors throwing around tens of billions each per year devoid of fundamentals like essential service offerings that turn a profit. Those handful of whale customers will make their own chips or cease buying large qtys at any time.
woah 7mo ago
OpenAI is making $24b a year. It's a 32x revenue multiple. High, but not insane. Spinning this as a story of overinvestment doesn't make sense.
- duchef 7mo ago
  Are you conflicting price to earnings to price to revenue?
- BadCookie 7mo ago
  32x earnings is high. 32x revenue is probably insane.
satvikpendem 7mo ago
And not even actual capital either, as much of the investment amounts into AI have been through cloud and GPU credits so that AWS or Microsoft Azure don't actually have to hand over billions in straight cash.

by nine_k 7mo ago

I think this is reality-distortion field rivaling that of Jobs', and a crisis of faith. Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI.

randomNumber7 7mo ago

> Nobody apparently believes that capital is worth investing into anything but AI. This is the main reason we see this insane investment into AI imo. If you imagine having lots of money, where should you invest that currently? Housing market: Seems very overvalued (at least in germany). Also with the current uncertainty and inflation its hard to make an investment that pays back over 20-30 years. So building is also difficult. Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. Gold: Only if you are paranoid about collapse of society. It doesn't make sense to invest into s.th. without interest rates. Crypto: Same as gold, but better if you like gamling. I would assume most people who are very rich don't gamble with most of their fortune.

nine_k 7mo ago
Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] :-\ Valuations are not as crazy, but I bet there'll going to be a lot of demand in the coming decade, unfortunately. Chip production, too, of course, but it's overflowing with money already, apparently. It's growing though, because there are real actual shortages of stuff like RAM and SSDs, there's money to be made immediately if you can. Chinese RAM manufacturers are building out like crazy. [1]: https://www.ultimamarkets.com/academy/anduril-stock-price-how-to-buy-valuation-ipo/ https://www.ultimamarkets.com/academy/anduril-stock-price-ho... [2]: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RHEINMETALL-AG-436527/consensus/ https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/RHEINMETALL-AG-43...
- teeray 7mo ago
  > Looking around, and especially forward, it would be military tech, e.g. [1], and its supply chain, e.g. [2] Only viable if you’re okay with the ethical implications of funding war.
  - nine_k 7mo ago
    Would you be fine with the ethical implications of funding the industry to fight WWII? Would you consider funding Ukrainian military unethical? Or Taiwanese? This is, sadly, not theoretical, and I'm afraid we'll soon see more of such choices, not fewer.
- zer00eyz 7mo ago
  > it would be military tech Anduril is the only company in this sector in the US that has any promise and they aren't even public. Most of us are not going to get our hands on this. Traditional defense sector looks more like Jeep, or Kodak...
  - nine_k 7mo ago
    The demand for more Patriot missiles is large, now that much of the stockpiles have suddenly been spent. Raytheon should do fine just based on that.
    - iririririr 7mo ago
      this admin will probably source patriots made in china
  - class3shock 7mo ago
    Anduril has yet to deliver anything of consequence. I hope they shake up the industry but to say they are the next hot thing and write off the primes at this stage is premature.
    - nine_k 7mo ago
      Invest in the Ukrainian drone producers which proved themselves on the literal battlefield! Some of the Gulf states already did.
lotsofpulp 7mo ago
> Stocks are very volatile currently. Not only since Iran. To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before. These returns do not qualify as “enjoying stocks”? https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vt https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profi... The returns are higher than before 2008, the previous 15 years are unprecedented. https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-re...
triceratops 7mo ago
> To me it seems since the financial crisis 2008 investors don't enjoy stocks as before Maybe in Europe. The US stock market has nearly tripled since then. Literally the best period of stock growth in history.
- jacquesm 7mo ago
  "The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, "stock prices have reached 'what looks like a permanently high plateau.'" https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1929 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-cr...
  - triceratops 7mo ago
    Ok second best :-) I wasn't alive in the 1920s though
    - jacquesm 7mo ago
      True, but it is close enough in time that we should heed the lessons learned lest we repeat the experience.
      - hunterpayne 7mo ago
        Do you know the actual lessons of that crash? Because we don't allow retail investors to go 10:1 on leverage anymore. There are a lot more lessons and none of them apply to this situation (even Glass-Steagall). This is much closer to the dot com crash in 2001 in how it looks, just a lot more concentrated and probably a bit bigger. If all you got is "number go up too much" then you probably shouldn't be investing your own money. The good news is that its almost all rich folks money on the line here and a small amount of dumb money. That's very different than, 2008 where it was mostly the indexes that got hit and that's more middle class/upper middle class concentrated.
heathrow83829 7mo ago
you gotta have some of all the above actually.

roncesvalles 7mo ago

It's the result of too much echo chambered bullshit floating around daily about how capable LLMs really are. It's literally crypto/blockchain all over again. It's one big lie that a lot of people have bought into which causes it to self-perpetuate, like religion.

bandrami 7mo ago

But they're really cagey about actually handing money over to them today

dlev_pika 7mo ago

I wonder what is not getting invested in bc AI has been crowding out everything else since 22. It has to be brutal out there for everybody else, if all the money is going to AI.

burnt-resistor 7mo ago

That's the tao of hyper-financialization. It must keep growing irrational exuberance big and up forever like stonks or it bursts like DotCom and tulip mania. It's funny money that cannot be liquidated for real value for more than a tiny fraction of the imaginary trillions being thrown around. Similarly, Nvidia $4T mkt cap makes absolutely no sense when it has but a few incestuous customers-parters-investors throwing around tens of billions each per year devoid of fundamentals like essential service offerings that turn a profit. Those handful of whale customers will make their own chips or cease buying large qtys at any time.

woah 7mo ago

OpenAI is making $24b a year. It's a 32x revenue multiple. High, but not insane. Spinning this as a story of overinvestment doesn't make sense.

duchef 7mo ago
Are you conflicting price to earnings to price to revenue?
BadCookie 7mo ago
32x earnings is high. 32x revenue is probably insane.

satvikpendem 7mo ago

And not even actual capital either, as much of the investment amounts into AI have been through cloud and GPU credits so that AWS or Microsoft Azure don't actually have to hand over billions in straight cash.