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Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz

38 points by Jimmc414 7mo ago

Jimmc414 7mo ago
https://archive.is/ivJeE https://archive.is/ivJeE
- CamperBob2 7mo ago
  Unfortunately the links beyond the first page of comments don't work, but if the visible comments are anything to go by, wow. Trump dun goofed. You get the sense that he's finally reached his Waterloo. No one is even trying to defend him. Question for regular WSJ readers: do their comments normally read this way, or is this new?
  - seanmcdirmid 7mo ago
    WSJ is for rich conservatives where FoxNews is for poor conservatives (both are owned by Murdoch). But they have skin in the game (business/finance/they own stocks) so their criticism of Trump can be pretty brutal if it hurts their bottom line.
SilverElfin 7mo ago
Is this some kind of gift to domestic oil producers who are big donors to Trump and MAGA PACs? I saw the government just approved E15 ethanol mixed gas as an emergency measure. I feel like every decision and crisis is somehow used to corruptly build power and wealth for someone in the Trump sphere.
- SadErn 7mo ago
  [dead]
- Jimmc414 7mo ago
  It’s more likely that the US does not have a strategically viable path to open the Strait of Hormuz.
  - 3eb7988a1663 7mo ago
    That is my read, some saner heads have communicated there is no way to win. So, just walk away and declare Mission Accomplished.
    - readitalready 7mo ago
      I honestly do see Trump just declaring he lost. "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. He's been known to acknowledge defeat, like his complete 180 when Mamdani won.
      - CamperBob2 7mo ago
        Can we set up a bet on Polymarket or something? I'll take that action any day. He would have to phrase such an acknowledgement as an apology, and a Trump doesn't do that. Ever. He didn't directly acknowledge defeat with Mamdani, at least not that I heard. It was more a case of populist game recognizing populist game.
      - leosanchez 7mo ago
        > "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. Not an American but. There is no fucking way Trump will acknowledge that.
      - roland35 7mo ago
        I would be shocked if he ever does that. Much more likely is just say something completely different and pretend that has always been the case
- 1659447091 7mo ago
  You may find this article interesting; as with all things trump, when he is actually involved in the goings-on of things (measured by his level of personal participatory activity) -- look for the money/grift. [How Trump and the oil markets move in sync: A tango in five charts] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgk8zk9epgo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgk8zk9epgo
k310 7mo ago
Iran is making a lot of money with their "troll gate". [0] I am sure that the great negotiator would be willing to end hostilities if they merely split the money with him. That follows his usual pattern of settling disputes he can't win. [0] https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-system-is-now-controlling-Hormuz-traffic https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-syst...
- mamonster 7mo ago
  It's actually not that much money in terms of price for end consumers, if the figures are around 2mio USD per ship as reported then it's like a 0.5-2% tax (depends on ship type and cargo). That said, obviously it's a huge amount of money for Iran.
beloch 7mo ago
Iran has four times the land area and over three times the population that Iraq did at the start of Bush Jr.'s war, plus they've been preparing for an invasion by the U.S. specifically since 1979. Bush assembled a large coalition of many allies to share the costs, but the U.S. is still struggling with the debt that resulted from the second Iraq war. A land war in Iran would bankrupt the U.S. and the Iranians know it. Occupying the entire country is also the only way to secure the straight of Hormuz by force, because every part of Iran is within drone range of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is a threat to their very existence. They are very much on what Sun Tzu would consider "desperate ground". For the U.S., this invasion is a "wag the dog" operation that is devoid of concrete policy goals. To put things in Trump's parlance, Iran has the cards and the U.S. doesn't. If Trump is going to declare victory and TACO, he's going to have to accept Iranian control of Hormuz and pay for the passage of ships. This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse.
- CamperBob2 7mo ago
  This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse. I don't think he can pull it off this time. I think he's finally gone too far. Netanyahu and Hegseth may have unwittingly accomplished what Clinton and Harris couldn't.
  - root_axis 7mo ago
    > I think he's finally gone too far. He'll be fine. It should be pretty clear by now that 40% of the country prefers Trump regardless of policy.
    - CamperBob2 7mo ago
      It's fallen below 40% for the first time, per Nate Silver, and that poll was taken before this story came out. If he follows through on his threat to destroy all of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, fuel prices will rise to unprecedented levels and remain there for a very long time. He will not be able to blame anyone else. People will plaster gas pumps with "I did that!" stickers, only with Trump's picture this time, rather than Biden's. And it still won't force Iran to open the Strait. He has no good options there. Iran is second only to Russia when it comes to shrugging off staggering losses in wartime. Trump cannot force the Iranians to do much of anything without either invading them or nuking them. If he does the former, the resulting carnage will cost him his remaining support among Republicans at all levels including the MAGA faithful. If he does the latter, he's definitely finished.
Jamesbeam 7mo ago
Operation Epic Fiasco is going really well. Yo boys and girls in the Pentagon, who fucked up the crayon drawing of what the word "win" means for the President and the Secretary? I request their Pizza Hut privileges be removed effective immediately. Cheese crust is for winners only.

38 points by Jimmc414 7mo ago

Jimmc414 7mo ago

https://archive.is/ivJeE https://archive.is/ivJeE

CamperBob2 7mo ago
Unfortunately the links beyond the first page of comments don't work, but if the visible comments are anything to go by, wow. Trump dun goofed. You get the sense that he's finally reached his Waterloo. No one is even trying to defend him. Question for regular WSJ readers: do their comments normally read this way, or is this new?
- seanmcdirmid 7mo ago
  WSJ is for rich conservatives where FoxNews is for poor conservatives (both are owned by Murdoch). But they have skin in the game (business/finance/they own stocks) so their criticism of Trump can be pretty brutal if it hurts their bottom line.

SilverElfin 7mo ago

Is this some kind of gift to domestic oil producers who are big donors to Trump and MAGA PACs? I saw the government just approved E15 ethanol mixed gas as an emergency measure. I feel like every decision and crisis is somehow used to corruptly build power and wealth for someone in the Trump sphere.

SadErn 7mo ago
[dead]
Jimmc414 7mo ago
It’s more likely that the US does not have a strategically viable path to open the Strait of Hormuz.
- 3eb7988a1663 7mo ago
  That is my read, some saner heads have communicated there is no way to win. So, just walk away and declare Mission Accomplished.
  - readitalready 7mo ago
    I honestly do see Trump just declaring he lost. "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. He's been known to acknowledge defeat, like his complete 180 when Mamdani won.
    - CamperBob2 7mo ago
      Can we set up a bet on Polymarket or something? I'll take that action any day. He would have to phrase such an acknowledgement as an apology, and a Trump doesn't do that. Ever. He didn't directly acknowledge defeat with Mamdani, at least not that I heard. It was more a case of populist game recognizing populist game.
    - leosanchez 7mo ago
      > "These Iranians put up a good fight and we weren't prepared." or something to that effect. Not an American but. There is no fucking way Trump will acknowledge that.
    - roland35 7mo ago
      I would be shocked if he ever does that. Much more likely is just say something completely different and pretend that has always been the case
1659447091 7mo ago
You may find this article interesting; as with all things trump, when he is actually involved in the goings-on of things (measured by his level of personal participatory activity) -- look for the money/grift. [How Trump and the oil markets move in sync: A tango in five charts] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgk8zk9epgo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgk8zk9epgo

k310 7mo ago

Iran is making a lot of money with their "troll gate". [0] I am sure that the great negotiator would be willing to end hostilities if they merely split the money with him. That follows his usual pattern of settling disputes he can't win. [0] https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-system-is-now-controlling-Hormuz-traffic https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-syst...

mamonster 7mo ago
It's actually not that much money in terms of price for end consumers, if the figures are around 2mio USD per ship as reported then it's like a 0.5-2% tax (depends on ship type and cargo). That said, obviously it's a huge amount of money for Iran.

beloch 7mo ago

Iran has four times the land area and over three times the population that Iraq did at the start of Bush Jr.'s war, plus they've been preparing for an invasion by the U.S. specifically since 1979. Bush assembled a large coalition of many allies to share the costs, but the U.S. is still struggling with the debt that resulted from the second Iraq war. A land war in Iran would bankrupt the U.S. and the Iranians know it. Occupying the entire country is also the only way to secure the straight of Hormuz by force, because every part of Iran is within drone range of Hormuz. For the IRGC, this is a threat to their very existence. They are very much on what Sun Tzu would consider "desperate ground". For the U.S., this invasion is a "wag the dog" operation that is devoid of concrete policy goals. To put things in Trump's parlance, Iran has the cards and the U.S. doesn't. If Trump is going to declare victory and TACO, he's going to have to accept Iranian control of Hormuz and pay for the passage of ships. This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse.

CamperBob2 7mo ago
This is going to take epic levels of reality distortion to sell as a win, but the alternative is far worse. I don't think he can pull it off this time. I think he's finally gone too far. Netanyahu and Hegseth may have unwittingly accomplished what Clinton and Harris couldn't.
- root_axis 7mo ago
  > I think he's finally gone too far. He'll be fine. It should be pretty clear by now that 40% of the country prefers Trump regardless of policy.
  - CamperBob2 7mo ago
    It's fallen below 40% for the first time, per Nate Silver, and that poll was taken before this story came out. If he follows through on his threat to destroy all of Iran's petroleum infrastructure, fuel prices will rise to unprecedented levels and remain there for a very long time. He will not be able to blame anyone else. People will plaster gas pumps with "I did that!" stickers, only with Trump's picture this time, rather than Biden's. And it still won't force Iran to open the Strait. He has no good options there. Iran is second only to Russia when it comes to shrugging off staggering losses in wartime. Trump cannot force the Iranians to do much of anything without either invading them or nuking them. If he does the former, the resulting carnage will cost him his remaining support among Republicans at all levels including the MAGA faithful. If he does the latter, he's definitely finished.

Jamesbeam 7mo ago

Operation Epic Fiasco is going really well. Yo boys and girls in the Pentagon, who fucked up the crayon drawing of what the word "win" means for the President and the Secretary? I request their Pizza Hut privileges be removed effective immediately. Cheese crust is for winners only.