5 ms·
Goldman Sachs now reckons that oil could take out the 2008 record of $147
- mandeepj 8mo agoI don’t estimates of these investments firms seriously! They talk like today’s scenarios will stay put forever - whether good or bad.
- bookofjoe 8mo agohttps://archive.ph/ZwEdU https://archive.ph/ZwEdU
- seydor 8mo agoIran is doing this without a navy
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> Iran is doing this without a navy They never needed a navy. And to the degree a navy was helpful, it was in the form of fast-attack craft. We don't seem to have hit those much yet [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps_Navy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Islam...
- joe_mamba 8mo agoI like how Pete Hegseth was gloating how the world's most powerful military managed to sink Iran's navy's shoddy boats sitting in the harbors, like it was some some crazy achievement.
- testing22321 8mo agoOr the one coming back from manoeuvres that wasn’t carrying any munitions. War crimes every day. https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/trump-us-navy-sank-unarmed-iran-ship-because-it-was-more-fun/ https://asiatimes.com/2026/03/trump-us-navy-sank-unarmed-ira...
- levinb 8mo agoAs someone who disdains hyperbolic, motivated framings of everything in the news cycle, I normally don't like to use words like that. But, it was interesting to see the news discuss the "first time since world war two" component of this event, that by WWII standards, would have been seen as a cowardly violation of the rules of war. The were in allied water, on a regularly scheduled drill, unarmed.
- OutOfHere 8mo agoIt was the first time for the US since WWII. Other countries have used them in combat over the years since WWII. He couldn't even get that right.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> that by WWII standards, would have been seen as a cowardly violation of the rules of war Source? Torpedoing anything with the enemy flag, down to civilian boats and merchant marines, was normalized by centuries of precedent by WWII.
- defrost 8mo ago“failing to do everything possible to rescue those aboard is certainly a war crime,” as the Second Geneva Convention requires militaries to take all possible measures to search for and collect the shipwrecked, wounded, and sick.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo agoWhat are you quoting?
- tptacek 8mo ago"the co-director of the Institute for Policy Studies’ New Internationalism Project".
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> Iran's navy's shoddy boats sitting in the harbors A win isn’t diminished because the enemy fucked up. Neutralizing a massive national investment is a military win. Why Tehran didn’t scatter its boats is a chapter for a future manual.
- bdangubic 8mo ago6 weeks after this conflict is over china will re-supply whatever was bombed :)
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> 6 weeks after this conflict is over china will re-supply whatever was bombed Probably. Same as us to the Gulf and Israel. Beijing has proven itself a non-terrorist actor. I’d be fine with Tehran as its suzerainty alongside Russia.
- ninjagoo 8mo ago> Beijing has proven itself a non-terrorist actor Oh, they do just fine terrorizing their own populace, and chinese citizens & chinese origin folks living abroad, and neighbors; those that they can currently reach.
- cosmicgadget 7mo agoWith the usual debt trap terms.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago$147 in July 2008 had the purchasing power of ~$218 today [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
- selectodude 8mo agoGoldman Sachs has been sandbagging their crude forecasts so hilariously that I'm convinced they're frontrunning their customers.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo agoDo they meaningfully deviate from their peers?
- selectodude 8mo agoNot really. It's just that the divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying is just so ridiculous that I refuse to believe that the hotshot analysts at GS/JPM are that ignorant.
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> divergence in price analysis coming out of banks vs the what people in the oil industry are saying Source for a consensus from oil? The crack spread shows refiners pricing in higher prices [1]. If the domestic refiners and producers can’t agree, why is the homogenous opinion of the banks a conspiracy? [1] https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread
- selectodude 8mo agoThe source is personal knowledge through friends in O&G. SE Asia is going to run out of oil by the end of April. Even if the war ended tomorrow and the strait opened up again, they will continue to be out of oil for months. US is insulated from practical supply concerns but we’re gonna be paying the price.
- mo7061 8mo agoThere is one thing to say here, USA wants the price to be high so it can throttle china.
- bediger4000 8mo agoTrump started the Iran war, apparently on a whim. There's no 4D chess going on here.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- bubbi 8mo ago[dead]
- ajross 8mo agoHigh oil prices hurt the US economy much more than China anyway. We're vastly more dependent on shipping and transport and even more vastly less elastic with our fuel demand. The only US interests who would want this are domestic oil producers, who are a small fraction even of the Republican funding base.
- roenxi 8mo agoIt is notable that the worlds major available oil reserves are now[0] in Venezuela, Canada, the US and Russia. Democracies are capable of playing 4D chess even if none of the people involved are up to the challenge. There are a lot of power centres that could stop Trump if they saw it as a problem for their interests; like Congress, some people in the administration or even a few people in CENTCOM (although they'd be more delaying the inevitable). That being said, unleashing this blow on Asia is insanely risky whether it is intentional or no. The Trump administration has a well-earned reputation for not being direct in their warmaking and the Asian's might decide not to go down without a fight. And the US is likely to get nothing but ill-will from the continent for the next generation. And I doubt Trump will politically survive the blows the US economy will take in the process of shredding the global oil market. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oi...
- black_13 8mo ago[dead]
- shrubble 8mo agoI understand that the impact to Americans is that for every penny increase in the price of a gallon of gas, averaged over a year, is about $1 billion in consumer spending . So if the average price goes from $2.99 to $3.49 , that’s 50 billion dollars.
- nojvek 8mo agoYes. But without new money in economy, that $50B is not being spent elsewhere. So Oil barons getting rich, at the expense of everyone else. “Make America Feel Poor Again”
- zoklet-enjoyer 8mo agoThe United States is run by pirates