9 ms·

If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how wou

by vrganj 7mo ago

If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones investments?

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2026-newsletter/ https://www.lynalden.com/march-2026-newsletter/ (control-f “The Investment Implications of Chaos”) Not investing advice, I’ve reallocated away from US domestic equities to international equities (VXUS) as a majority of a portfolio. This hedges against a correction from overweight Mag 7 exposure and US economic growth impairment from current policies (imho). https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20 https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20 https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approaching-50/ https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approachi...
iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago
Dunno, but yesterday was the first time ever I felt confident shorting nearly across the board. Nearly.
2OEH8eoCRo0 7mo ago
I think a crash is coming and I do nothing. I rebalance my stock/bond split and keep a large emergency fund as per usual.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
gedy 7mo ago
You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc. But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.
- testing22321 7mo ago
  You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?
  - JoshuaDavid 7mo ago
    What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
    - vrganj 7mo ago
      How would buying Euros compare in terms of exposure?
    - readthenotes1 7mo ago
      The USD could take a dive against: yuan, eu, gbp, rial, gold, silver, platinum, WTI, SPY, etc. Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
      - vrganj 7mo ago
        Couldn't you just exchange your EUR for USD as needed? Use it as your reserve currency?
    - 9dev 7mo ago
      Traders could start buying their oil using Yuan, for example. That’s not a theoretical anymore
chistev 7mo ago
If everyone (most people) think the same, shouldn't you do the opposite? Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Etc.
- vrganj 7mo ago
  That might be the case if the market was completely abstract and removed from ground truths. My feelings about these things don't come from markets.
- Ekaros 7mo ago
  I don' think that logic is intended for the top... It is what you should do when you are closing to bottom or are recovering already but most of the market does not yet see it. Being greedy at the top will take longest time to recover. Catching the falling knife.
VohuMana 7mo ago
The advice I have heard is if you think there will be a significant drop in the market you liquidate all your holdings while they are still high and then rebuy when the price is low. Granted this is a gamble though, if you’re wrong then you just sold all your stock and are no longer participating in the market plus you need to pay capital gains tax
- readthenotes1 7mo ago
  Did you hear this advice from 100 broke people or one lucky schmuck?
  - integralid 7mo ago
    This is significantly safer than shorting that some people here suggest. You can't lose money sitting on cash. While when shorting your potential loss is infinite.
    - jakogut 7mo ago
      Mistiming the market is losing out on potential gains, which is losing money compared to sitting on cash. Cash doesn't grow. Most people are best off investing in index funds and forgetting about it for 10+ years.
dehrmann 7mo ago
Either you need the cash now and are already in short-term treasuries or you're it it for the long-term and you'll be laughing at this question when the Dow hits 100k.
gljiva 7mo ago
One should either weather out the storm or if one wants to cash out soon or manage their portfolio more closely they would pick the defensive assets they trust the most and hold until they stop thinking the stock market crash is coming up or stop trusting those assets. If they really think the crash is imminent, maybe investing some excess money into shorting the market while setting trailing stop loss would be a fun activity that might turn profitable
LeFantome 7mo ago
Other than buying oil futures, probably selling to cash and getting ready to buy when it hits the fan.
- 486sx33 7mo ago
  [dead]
csomar 7mo ago
If you genuinely think these two events will shake the foundations of the US economy, then no investment is really going to protect you; you can't expect a system to shield you from the very thing that's breaking it. There is crypto but even that got infiltrated by institutional wall street money. There are off-shore jurisdictions but the recent Iran war has showed these can be very vulnerable at a moment notice. There is China, but a Taiwan invasion could reduce your assets there to zero. Honestly, I think the best bet is crypto/Bitcoin, by far. It operates across borders and still relatively insulated from government reach. Unlike gold, oil, or anything physical, it can be moved without physical visibility.

by vrganj 7mo ago

If one were to think a major stock market crash was coming up, led by the AI bubble bursting, but reinforced by the major self-own that is the Iran war, how would one best prepare ones investments?

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

https://www.lynalden.com/march-2026-newsletter/ https://www.lynalden.com/march-2026-newsletter/ (control-f “The Investment Implications of Chaos”) Not investing advice, I’ve reallocated away from US domestic equities to international equities (VXUS) as a majority of a portfolio. This hedges against a correction from overweight Mag 7 exposure and US economic growth impairment from current policies (imho). https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/stocks-trump-iran-nasdaq https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20 https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VTI,VXUS?start=2025-01-20 https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approaching-50/ https://www.apolloacademy.com/sp-500-concentration-approachi...

iugtmkbdfil834 7mo ago

Dunno, but yesterday was the first time ever I felt confident shorting nearly across the board. Nearly.

2OEH8eoCRo0 7mo ago

I think a crash is coming and I do nothing. I rebalance my stock/bond split and keep a large emergency fund as per usual.

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]

gedy 7mo ago

You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc. But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.

testing22321 7mo ago
You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?
- JoshuaDavid 7mo ago
  What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.
  - vrganj 7mo ago
    How would buying Euros compare in terms of exposure?
  - readthenotes1 7mo ago
    The USD could take a dive against: yuan, eu, gbp, rial, gold, silver, platinum, WTI, SPY, etc. Only a few of them will matter on a day-to-day basis if you're currently in the US with assets valued in USD.
    - vrganj 7mo ago
      Couldn't you just exchange your EUR for USD as needed? Use it as your reserve currency?
  - 9dev 7mo ago
    Traders could start buying their oil using Yuan, for example. That’s not a theoretical anymore

chistev 7mo ago

If everyone (most people) think the same, shouldn't you do the opposite? Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Etc.

vrganj 7mo ago
That might be the case if the market was completely abstract and removed from ground truths. My feelings about these things don't come from markets.
Ekaros 7mo ago
I don' think that logic is intended for the top... It is what you should do when you are closing to bottom or are recovering already but most of the market does not yet see it. Being greedy at the top will take longest time to recover. Catching the falling knife.

VohuMana 7mo ago

The advice I have heard is if you think there will be a significant drop in the market you liquidate all your holdings while they are still high and then rebuy when the price is low. Granted this is a gamble though, if you’re wrong then you just sold all your stock and are no longer participating in the market plus you need to pay capital gains tax

readthenotes1 7mo ago
Did you hear this advice from 100 broke people or one lucky schmuck?
- integralid 7mo ago
  This is significantly safer than shorting that some people here suggest. You can't lose money sitting on cash. While when shorting your potential loss is infinite.
  - jakogut 7mo ago
    Mistiming the market is losing out on potential gains, which is losing money compared to sitting on cash. Cash doesn't grow. Most people are best off investing in index funds and forgetting about it for 10+ years.

dehrmann 7mo ago

Either you need the cash now and are already in short-term treasuries or you're it it for the long-term and you'll be laughing at this question when the Dow hits 100k.

gljiva 7mo ago

One should either weather out the storm or if one wants to cash out soon or manage their portfolio more closely they would pick the defensive assets they trust the most and hold until they stop thinking the stock market crash is coming up or stop trusting those assets. If they really think the crash is imminent, maybe investing some excess money into shorting the market while setting trailing stop loss would be a fun activity that might turn profitable

LeFantome 7mo ago

Other than buying oil futures, probably selling to cash and getting ready to buy when it hits the fan.

486sx33 7mo ago
[dead]

csomar 7mo ago

If you genuinely think these two events will shake the foundations of the US economy, then no investment is really going to protect you; you can't expect a system to shield you from the very thing that's breaking it. There is crypto but even that got infiltrated by institutional wall street money. There are off-shore jurisdictions but the recent Iran war has showed these can be very vulnerable at a moment notice. There is China, but a Taiwan invasion could reduce your assets there to zero. Honestly, I think the best bet is crypto/Bitcoin, by far. It operates across borders and still relatively insulated from government reach. Unlike gold, oil, or anything physical, it can be moved without physical visibility.