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> the war in Ukraine has kind of proven that the Europeans are not all that capable of action. It’s revealed a fair bit about America too. And this oil crisis

> the war in Ukraine has kind of proven that the Europeans are not all that capable of action. It’s revealed a fair bit about America too. And this oil crisis is a fairly incredible screw up too. What did the US think would happen?

strken 7mo ago
The US is a net exporter of crude oil and is positioned to meet an oil crisis better than nearly anyone else. What do you think the US government expected from this?
- lostlogin 7mo ago
  > What do you think the US government expected from this? That they’d beat Iran and have some friendly dictator installed in short order. Are you arguing that this is going how the US planned? When was the last time the US had this much trouble getting its allies to follow it into war?
  - strken 7mo ago
    I think civil servants and military planners in the US were aware of the threat of a global oil shock if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is a well-known enough scenario that the Battlefield games have maps on Kharg Island. Everyone knows it's Iran's greatest leverage. They even threaten to close the Strait regularly. The administration would have been informed of the risks to the US, which are relatively minor in comparison since the US is a net exporter of crude, and ignored them. If the risks had been greater, they would not have ignored them, and would have at least had an actual plan to keep the Strait open. They might even have informed their close military allies using something other than Truth Social. I am not arguing that they planned this, even though it should have been obvious that it would happen. I absolutely do believe they were warned it was a possibility and didn't care.
- fc417fc802 7mo ago
  Being positioned to eat shit better than anyone else is still eating shit. Our economy isn't independent of the rest of the world. Datacenter investment is currently a noticable fraction of US GDP. That's as globalized as it gets, we aren't even remotely self sufficient on that front. What happens to our economy if that segment crumbles overnight?
troad 7mo ago
> It’s revealed a fair bit about America too. That America is incredibly generous with resources in a conflict has no possible bearing on the security of their continent? I don't see Europe sending billions of its taxpayer dollars to resolve conflicts in Africa and Asia. (It barely manages to do so for a conflict right next door!) There was a delegation of Asian (I think?) leaders in Europe a few years ago, and when Europe pressured them to take action re Ukraine-Russia, they politely pointed out that when a war breaks out in Europe they are told it's an existential global crisis, and when a conflict breaks out in Asia or Africa, Europe just sort of yawns and issues a sleepy statement calling for international law to be respected (which is European for 'thoughts and prayers'). Personally, I care about Ukraine and want them to prevail. But the myopia and arrogance of Europeans on this is astonishing. If this were a conflict in Asia or Africa, Europe would never have given even a fraction of the support that America has given Ukraine. Not a million years. And then, having failed to provide for their own security, having profiteered from Russian oil and gas for decades, and having secured vast amounts of support from the rest of the world when faced with the consequences of their own failures, European leaders have the audacity to suggest they're not getting enough? That the rest of the world is failing them? How much money, exactly, is the average rice farmer in Asia supposed to owe for Europe's security? And why do much wealthier Europeans never seem to owe him back anything in return?
- platevoltage 7mo ago
  Americans want to be the world's police until it's time to do something righteous.
  - troad 7mo ago
    Do they, though? They seem to very consistently vote against foreign entanglements, before their own leaders betray them, pressed into action by foreign allies advocating their own narrow regional interests (Europe on Russia, Israel on Iran, etc). Not clear to me why some working mum in Idaho is obliged to pay for Hungary's security when even the Hungarians refuse to do so, but hey, enjoy this meme while it lasts. The US won't remain the world's policeman for too much longer, and we're all in for a much darker world without them.

strken 7mo ago

The US is a net exporter of crude oil and is positioned to meet an oil crisis better than nearly anyone else. What do you think the US government expected from this?

lostlogin 7mo ago
> What do you think the US government expected from this? That they’d beat Iran and have some friendly dictator installed in short order. Are you arguing that this is going how the US planned? When was the last time the US had this much trouble getting its allies to follow it into war?
- strken 7mo ago
  I think civil servants and military planners in the US were aware of the threat of a global oil shock if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is a well-known enough scenario that the Battlefield games have maps on Kharg Island. Everyone knows it's Iran's greatest leverage. They even threaten to close the Strait regularly. The administration would have been informed of the risks to the US, which are relatively minor in comparison since the US is a net exporter of crude, and ignored them. If the risks had been greater, they would not have ignored them, and would have at least had an actual plan to keep the Strait open. They might even have informed their close military allies using something other than Truth Social. I am not arguing that they planned this, even though it should have been obvious that it would happen. I absolutely do believe they were warned it was a possibility and didn't care.
fc417fc802 7mo ago
Being positioned to eat shit better than anyone else is still eating shit. Our economy isn't independent of the rest of the world. Datacenter investment is currently a noticable fraction of US GDP. That's as globalized as it gets, we aren't even remotely self sufficient on that front. What happens to our economy if that segment crumbles overnight?

troad 7mo ago

> It’s revealed a fair bit about America too. That America is incredibly generous with resources in a conflict has no possible bearing on the security of their continent? I don't see Europe sending billions of its taxpayer dollars to resolve conflicts in Africa and Asia. (It barely manages to do so for a conflict right next door!) There was a delegation of Asian (I think?) leaders in Europe a few years ago, and when Europe pressured them to take action re Ukraine-Russia, they politely pointed out that when a war breaks out in Europe they are told it's an existential global crisis, and when a conflict breaks out in Asia or Africa, Europe just sort of yawns and issues a sleepy statement calling for international law to be respected (which is European for 'thoughts and prayers'). Personally, I care about Ukraine and want them to prevail. But the myopia and arrogance of Europeans on this is astonishing. If this were a conflict in Asia or Africa, Europe would never have given even a fraction of the support that America has given Ukraine. Not a million years. And then, having failed to provide for their own security, having profiteered from Russian oil and gas for decades, and having secured vast amounts of support from the rest of the world when faced with the consequences of their own failures, European leaders have the audacity to suggest they're not getting enough? That the rest of the world is failing them? How much money, exactly, is the average rice farmer in Asia supposed to owe for Europe's security? And why do much wealthier Europeans never seem to owe him back anything in return?

platevoltage 7mo ago
Americans want to be the world's police until it's time to do something righteous.
- troad 7mo ago
  Do they, though? They seem to very consistently vote against foreign entanglements, before their own leaders betray them, pressed into action by foreign allies advocating their own narrow regional interests (Europe on Russia, Israel on Iran, etc). Not clear to me why some working mum in Idaho is obliged to pay for Hungary's security when even the Hungarians refuse to do so, but hey, enjoy this meme while it lasts. The US won't remain the world's policeman for too much longer, and we're all in for a much darker world without them.