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Not weird if you’ve been participating in discussions on clean energy since the beginning of this century. The inevitability of the energy transition has been

Not weird if you’ve been participating in discussions on clean energy since the beginning of this century. The inevitability of the energy transition has been obvious for so long, and even when it’s done there will be cranks insisting that it’ll never work.

leonidasrup 7mo ago
[dead]
LunaSea 7mo ago
I like the transition to renewables , but there is nothing inevitable about it. We don't produce solar panels or have the materials to produce them in Europe. So we're just as dependent on imports as before.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- fc417fc802 7mo ago
  Those imports have a much longer half life than barrels of oil.
  - LunaSea 7mo ago
    But at the moments they cover only a tiny percentage of our electricity needs, not even talking about storage or the heating needs which usually come from gas.
    - fc417fc802 7mo ago
      You objected that switching to solar would still leave the EU dependent on imports. Even if that is true the dependence isn't remotely equivalent.
- ericd 7mo ago
  It's aluminum, glass, silicon, and some conductive metal. Surely you all have those materials. And even if you don't make them yourselves, they aren't make and then burn like fossil fuels, they are durable infrastructure, you don't have to replace them often - they have an expected lifespan of >30 years. Buy as many as China will sell you, and once you have more than enough installed, you're good for a long time, regardless of whether they cut you off. I think being reliant on the fossil fuel supply chain for so long, it's a bit tricky to mindset shift that once these things are installed, you're just good. And they're super fungible, you don't need any precision replacement parts, so you can make your own replacement parts if you want.
  - yawaramin 7mo ago
    > expected lifespan of >30 years More like <25 years. > I think being reliant on the fossil fuel supply chain for so long France isn't. And they are net exporting their (nuclear fission) electricity to their neighbours who shut down nuclear power plants.
    - mbgerring 7mo ago
      The observed lifespan of DER assets is consistently longer than the manufacturer’s (or insurance company’s) rating
    - lpcvoid 7mo ago
      Yes, and France currently has a huge problem with keeping their plants online in the summer when it's too warm. And building new plants is outrageously expensive, see Hinkley Point C. Oh, ans you still need to import fission material, so you're dependent again on other countries. Nuclear was good in the 70s, now it's beaten thoroughly by renewables.
      - brabel 7mo ago
        The Swedish government is very pro renewables, yet it is initiating large investments in nuclear because they believe it is the only way to ensure enough electricity for the larger and larger need for it in the near future. I’d say they have some good information to base that decision on, since you’re right it’s really expensive, but also it’s the only way to get large amounts of production when the sun ain’t shining (all winter here) and there’s no wind (also happens a lot in the colder months).
- nutjob2 7mo ago
  Your comment makes no sense. If the Middle Eat oil gets cut off, you're suffering within days. If China cuts off solar panels, you have many plenty of time to find an alternative source or ramp up your own production. If you chase down all inputs into everything you need to generate power you will find you're not truly independent from anyone. But solar panels and various other renewables hardware is much easier to stockpile than oil. > but there is nothing inevitable about it The Middle East is not going back to normal any time soon. The Israeli/US attack on Iran is a strategic catastrophe, implemented by two felons advised by ideologues and incompetents. The conditions are right to make oil more expensive for a long time, regardless of the outcome of the war. True peace is very unlikely to never be achieved. For instance: Iran now has a massive incentive to build nukes. Meanwhile solar panel, wind farm, and battery prices are dropping like a rock and they avoid all of the problems of oil. Only the most ideologically fixated wouldn't invest in and install renewables. Anything that makes huge amounts of money is indeed inevitable.
JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
> inevitability of the energy transition Huge difference between tranistioning to renewables and going completely de-centralised. Even if we put a limit to the latter at the community level, it's a recipe for de-industrialisation. Centralised power production, even with renewables, has economies of scale, and those economies amplify with volatile demand sources, e.g. residences.
- fc417fc802 7mo ago
  You can decentralize residential power without doing the same for industrial loads. Doing so is a mixed bag. It's somewhat more expensive however it's less prone to failures during natural disasters, failures aren't outside of your ability to fix, and it isn't subject to politics to nearly the same degree. When you consider the logistics of strengthening the last mile of residential to accommodate EVs in a sparsely populated place like the US (or rather the apparent lack of political will to do so) it starts to look extremely attractive.
  - mbgerring 7mo ago
    A good friend of mine is a solar installer in rural California, and he is booked solid building battery and solar systems sized to charge cars, because depending on PG&E is worse than spending the money to go off-grid.
    - lpcvoid 7mo ago
      Yepp. Grid defection is a trend all across the world right now in sunny climates. I live in Germany and can unfortunately not do this, but if I had thr sun hours of California, you can bet I'd build 300kWh of LiFePO4 and as much solar as my roof allows, and cancel all my expensive contracts.
  - JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
    > You can decentralize residential power without doing the same for industrial loads. Doing so is a mixed bag There is a middle ground: decentralize enough to run essential services. Run the rest through the grid. The big downside to decentralising residential power is that's variable demand–precisely the sort of demand you can net out against other parts of the grid. The sort of variance that makes grids more economic than everyone powering themselves. (Again, in rural settings, yes–decentralise.)

leonidasrup 7mo ago

[dead]

LunaSea 7mo ago

I like the transition to renewables , but there is nothing inevitable about it. We don't produce solar panels or have the materials to produce them in Europe. So we're just as dependent on imports as before.

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
fc417fc802 7mo ago
Those imports have a much longer half life than barrels of oil.
- LunaSea 7mo ago
  But at the moments they cover only a tiny percentage of our electricity needs, not even talking about storage or the heating needs which usually come from gas.
  - fc417fc802 7mo ago
    You objected that switching to solar would still leave the EU dependent on imports. Even if that is true the dependence isn't remotely equivalent.
ericd 7mo ago
It's aluminum, glass, silicon, and some conductive metal. Surely you all have those materials. And even if you don't make them yourselves, they aren't make and then burn like fossil fuels, they are durable infrastructure, you don't have to replace them often - they have an expected lifespan of >30 years. Buy as many as China will sell you, and once you have more than enough installed, you're good for a long time, regardless of whether they cut you off. I think being reliant on the fossil fuel supply chain for so long, it's a bit tricky to mindset shift that once these things are installed, you're just good. And they're super fungible, you don't need any precision replacement parts, so you can make your own replacement parts if you want.
- yawaramin 7mo ago
  > expected lifespan of >30 years More like <25 years. > I think being reliant on the fossil fuel supply chain for so long France isn't. And they are net exporting their (nuclear fission) electricity to their neighbours who shut down nuclear power plants.
  - mbgerring 7mo ago
    The observed lifespan of DER assets is consistently longer than the manufacturer’s (or insurance company’s) rating
  - lpcvoid 7mo ago
    Yes, and France currently has a huge problem with keeping their plants online in the summer when it's too warm. And building new plants is outrageously expensive, see Hinkley Point C. Oh, ans you still need to import fission material, so you're dependent again on other countries. Nuclear was good in the 70s, now it's beaten thoroughly by renewables.
    - brabel 7mo ago
      The Swedish government is very pro renewables, yet it is initiating large investments in nuclear because they believe it is the only way to ensure enough electricity for the larger and larger need for it in the near future. I’d say they have some good information to base that decision on, since you’re right it’s really expensive, but also it’s the only way to get large amounts of production when the sun ain’t shining (all winter here) and there’s no wind (also happens a lot in the colder months).
nutjob2 7mo ago
Your comment makes no sense. If the Middle Eat oil gets cut off, you're suffering within days. If China cuts off solar panels, you have many plenty of time to find an alternative source or ramp up your own production. If you chase down all inputs into everything you need to generate power you will find you're not truly independent from anyone. But solar panels and various other renewables hardware is much easier to stockpile than oil. > but there is nothing inevitable about it The Middle East is not going back to normal any time soon. The Israeli/US attack on Iran is a strategic catastrophe, implemented by two felons advised by ideologues and incompetents. The conditions are right to make oil more expensive for a long time, regardless of the outcome of the war. True peace is very unlikely to never be achieved. For instance: Iran now has a massive incentive to build nukes. Meanwhile solar panel, wind farm, and battery prices are dropping like a rock and they avoid all of the problems of oil. Only the most ideologically fixated wouldn't invest in and install renewables. Anything that makes huge amounts of money is indeed inevitable.

JumpCrisscross 7mo ago

> inevitability of the energy transition Huge difference between tranistioning to renewables and going completely de-centralised. Even if we put a limit to the latter at the community level, it's a recipe for de-industrialisation. Centralised power production, even with renewables, has economies of scale, and those economies amplify with volatile demand sources, e.g. residences.

fc417fc802 7mo ago
You can decentralize residential power without doing the same for industrial loads. Doing so is a mixed bag. It's somewhat more expensive however it's less prone to failures during natural disasters, failures aren't outside of your ability to fix, and it isn't subject to politics to nearly the same degree. When you consider the logistics of strengthening the last mile of residential to accommodate EVs in a sparsely populated place like the US (or rather the apparent lack of political will to do so) it starts to look extremely attractive.
- mbgerring 7mo ago
  A good friend of mine is a solar installer in rural California, and he is booked solid building battery and solar systems sized to charge cars, because depending on PG&E is worse than spending the money to go off-grid.
  - lpcvoid 7mo ago
    Yepp. Grid defection is a trend all across the world right now in sunny climates. I live in Germany and can unfortunately not do this, but if I had thr sun hours of California, you can bet I'd build 300kWh of LiFePO4 and as much solar as my roof allows, and cancel all my expensive contracts.
- JumpCrisscross 7mo ago
  > You can decentralize residential power without doing the same for industrial loads. Doing so is a mixed bag There is a middle ground: decentralize enough to run essential services. Run the rest through the grid. The big downside to decentralising residential power is that's variable demand–precisely the sort of demand you can net out against other parts of the grid. The sort of variance that makes grids more economic than everyone powering themselves. (Again, in rural settings, yes–decentralise.)