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> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading vol
by firloop 6mo ago
> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion.
Bizarre to call trading volume "revenue". Last year, trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1].
[0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-145801350.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-1...
[1]: https://gamingamerica.com/news/polymarket-free-ride-over-introduce-fees-march-30 https://gamingamerica.com/news/polymarket-free-ride-over-int...
- roxolotl 6mo agoThank you for this call out. I was blown away by that number because it would have meant volume was maybe pushing 1T.
- shimman 6mo agoIt's DT, don't expect honesty from his posts (unless he is bashing unions or workers, he's very honest about that).
- pbreit 6mo agoSame as Block booking crypto trades as revenue.
- firloop 6mo agoAre the referenced companies referring to their volume as revenue?
- worldsayshi 6mo agoI can't believe people are throwing so much money on zero/negative sum games that on average have no benefit to anyone including yourself. I mean I know gambling is a thing but at least we are counting that as an addiction. But we seem to take polymarket more seriously.
- Spacecosmonaut 6mo agoThere is genuine value in a wisdom of the crowds assessment of future events that is only sharpened up by the requirement to put money on the line.
- nsvd2 6mo agoI think you're right broadly, but when that wisdom is applied to e.g. how many dildos will be thrown at WNBA players, I don't know how much actual value is created.
- amfarrell617 6mo agoThat… that actually seems like something which society should want to predict with more precision so that we can hire someone with a net on a stick.
- dgabriel 6mo agoIt's also a real world event that can be influenced by the existence of the bet.
- automatic6131 6mo agoThere is definitely value in that, but that value is outweighed - dominated, even - by the incentive produced to fix outcomes, incentivized by that money put on the line.
- Breza 6mo agoHow dare you impugn the mystical powers of the wisdom of the crowd. Why would anybody fix outcomes? Wait a minute, you can bet on pro wrestling? OK I'm out of ideas. https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/entertainment/wwe/ https://www.betus.com.pa/sportsbook/entertainment/wwe/
- jappgar 6mo agoIt would be useful to predict things like earthquakes and tornados. Gambling on what politicians and celebrities will do is not science it's degenerate court gossip.
- xeyownt 6mo agoTypo. It's obvious it can't be a revenue. Previous paragraph is dealing with the size of online gambling industry, next paragraph is about the same but for prediction market.
- firloop 6mo agoWell, the previous paragraph compares how much people bet online with how much people spend on airfare, which also isn't quite right. It assumes 100% of what people bet is lost. For sure, the house always wins, but the amount lost is probably closer to 50-60% of what is quoted.
- xeyownt 6mo agoIt's market size. It shows the interest in some activity. Laundry and airfare are for sure necessary & valuable activities, whereas the interest of betting (for a society) is questionable. The question is what do you do with your money. If you are a pharaon, and pay a good salary to build pyramids, is that good? People get paid, pharaon gets his pyramid. However, as a society, the loss is all the efforts that could have been spent on something much more useful, like hospitals, schools, roads... For the betting industry, no money is lost, it goes to the winner or the house. But how will these people use their money next?