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> can play prediction markets by betting on a swing The outcomes are still capped. In that respect, it's more like a derivative market than the stock market. Y
by JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
> can play prediction markets by betting on a swing
The outcomes are still capped. In that respect, it's more like a derivative market than the stock market. You can trade in and out of options. But the value in the system is tightly defined and, after fees, a net negative-sum game.
- kqr 8mo agoThere are no fees on Polymarket. Not sure about others.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- kasey_junk 8mo agoDepends on the event: https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees
- JumpCrisscross 8mo ago> There are no fees on Polymarket "Currently, small fees apply to Crypto and Sports markets. Starting March 30, 2026, this will expand to include other categories like Finance, Politics, Economics, Culture, Weather, and Tech" [1]. More critically, Polymarket doesn't pay interest on deposits. (Kalshi does.) [1] https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364478-trading-fees https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364478-trading-fee...
- kqr 8mo agoThanks for the correction! I have to admit it was a while since I last looked into this and I shouldn't have been so confident.
- barchar 8mo agoThere is a fee implicit in the market spread. It's formed out of the time value of money w.r.t. the cost of NOT trading as well as the adverse selection faced by those with standing offers. Increased insider trading will increase spreads.
- hunterpayne 8mo agoThen explain why the average prediction market has a smaller spread than the average equity option market.