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> Name a single time doomers were right about anything. - NFTs - Surveillance schizos - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos - Anyone who didn’t believe we were a

by guzfip 7mo ago

> Name a single time doomers were right about anything. - NFTs - Surveillance schizos - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos - Anyone who didn’t believe we were a year out from Star Trek living when LLMs first started picking up steam - People who predicted the flood of people entering Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any problems because their god of software is consuming the world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real concern. - Anyone amongst the sea of delusional democrats who did indeed believe Trump could win a second term. All of those doomers were vindicated, and that’s just recently.

api 7mo ago
I was thinking the other day about why a "global pedophile cabal" would be a thing. I still think that phrase overstates it a bit, but not that much. Committing a crime with someone bonds you to them. First, it's a kind of shared social behavior, and it's one that is exclusive to you and your friends who commit the same kinds of crimes. Any shared experience bonds people, crimes included. Having a shared secret also bonds people. Second, it creates an implied pact of mutually assured destruction. Everyone knows the skeletons in everyone else's closet, so it creates a web of trust. Anyone defecting could possibly be punished by selectively revealing their crimes, and vice versa. Game theoretically it overcomes tit-for-tat and enables all-cooperate interactions, at least to some extent, and even among people who otherwise don't like each other or don't have a lot in common. Third, it separates the serious from the unserious. If you want to be a member of the club, do the bad thing. It's a form of high cost membership gating. This works for other kinds of crimes too. It's not that unusual for criminal gangs to demand that initiates commit a crime and provide evidence, or commit a crime in front of existing members. These can be things like robbery, murder, and so on. Anyone not willing to do this probably isn't serious and can't be trusted. Once someone does do it, you know they're really in. It naturally creates cabals. The crime comes first, the cabal second, but then the cabal can realize this and start using the crime as a gateway to admission. Every mutual interest creates a community, but a secret criminal mutual interest creates a special kind of tight knit community. In a world that's increasingly atomized and divided, that's power. I think it neatly explains how the Epstein network could be so powerful and effective.
abletonlive 7mo ago
- NFTS doomers? I mean I appreciate the humor here. - Surveillance schizos - Society still works - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos - Again, funny use of 'doomers' but that's what the current society seems to be run by so I wouldn't say it's fitting for doomerism. - People who predicted the flood of people entering Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any problems because their god of software is consuming the world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real concern. -- I'm a software "engineer" for ~14 years now. I still have no concern. None of these things are that disruptive to our society at large. You will still be able to walk down the street and grab a Big Mac pretty much any day of the week. A large portion of society is going to look at all of what you're worried about and say "it's not that serious" while consuming their 20 second videos.
- tock 7mo ago
  What do you think is a valid doomer warning that came true? Or do you think literally everything that is pessimistic is doomerism?
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - abletonlive 7mo ago
    You're asking the wrong person. I haven't seen a single example of a doomer warning that came true. Can you provide one? It seems like society still exists when I look out the window and the impact that doomers assert are greatly exaggerated in every instance.
    - guzfip 7mo ago
      So are disingenuous or just stupid? Of course society exists still, but what society? Only the very dumbest think “doom” is some apocalyptic scene from a Hollywood film in which humans are nearly wiped out. “Doom” is instead when swaths of Roman citizens with rights amidst a powerful, civically and technologically impressive hegemony, over time find themselves reduced to unfree serfs. They and their descendants would remain in that position for centuries until a horrific disease came through and killed so many of them that the serfdom became untenable.
whaleofatw2022 7mo ago
> People who predicted the flood of people entering Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any problems because their god of software is consuming the world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real concern. How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused problems at orgs and in the industry. Just look at all the linkedin/twitter/youtube garbage of influencers trying to post boot camp tier advice and a sizable portion of new developers latching on to often questionable advice/viewpoints.
- guzfip 7mo ago
  > How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused problems at orgs and in the industry. I think you misread. In fairness, I arranged the sentence awkwardly, as I do often. I think my mind was conjuring the various dooms and then trying to rephrase the doom into the doomer. What I mean is the people who warned against it were vindicated. Of course vindicated may not the best word to use. If I say the world blows up tomorrow and you say it can never, and then it blown up, perhaps I’m not necessarily vindicated. But I certainly get a brief moment of schadenfreude

by guzfip 7mo ago

api 7mo ago

I was thinking the other day about why a "global pedophile cabal" would be a thing. I still think that phrase overstates it a bit, but not that much. Committing a crime with someone bonds you to them. First, it's a kind of shared social behavior, and it's one that is exclusive to you and your friends who commit the same kinds of crimes. Any shared experience bonds people, crimes included. Having a shared secret also bonds people. Second, it creates an implied pact of mutually assured destruction. Everyone knows the skeletons in everyone else's closet, so it creates a web of trust. Anyone defecting could possibly be punished by selectively revealing their crimes, and vice versa. Game theoretically it overcomes tit-for-tat and enables all-cooperate interactions, at least to some extent, and even among people who otherwise don't like each other or don't have a lot in common. Third, it separates the serious from the unserious. If you want to be a member of the club, do the bad thing. It's a form of high cost membership gating. This works for other kinds of crimes too. It's not that unusual for criminal gangs to demand that initiates commit a crime and provide evidence, or commit a crime in front of existing members. These can be things like robbery, murder, and so on. Anyone not willing to do this probably isn't serious and can't be trusted. Once someone does do it, you know they're really in. It naturally creates cabals. The crime comes first, the cabal second, but then the cabal can realize this and start using the crime as a gateway to admission. Every mutual interest creates a community, but a secret criminal mutual interest creates a special kind of tight knit community. In a world that's increasingly atomized and divided, that's power. I think it neatly explains how the Epstein network could be so powerful and effective.

abletonlive 7mo ago

- NFTS doomers? I mean I appreciate the humor here. - Surveillance schizos - Society still works - Global Pedophile Cabal schizos - Again, funny use of 'doomers' but that's what the current society seems to be run by so I wouldn't say it's fitting for doomerism. - People who predicted the flood of people entering Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any problems because their god of software is consuming the world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real concern. -- I'm a software "engineer" for ~14 years now. I still have no concern. None of these things are that disruptive to our society at large. You will still be able to walk down the street and grab a Big Mac pretty much any day of the week. A large portion of society is going to look at all of what you're worried about and say "it's not that serious" while consuming their 20 second videos.

tock 7mo ago
What do you think is a valid doomer warning that came true? Or do you think literally everything that is pessimistic is doomerism?
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- abletonlive 7mo ago
  You're asking the wrong person. I haven't seen a single example of a doomer warning that came true. Can you provide one? It seems like society still exists when I look out the window and the impact that doomers assert are greatly exaggerated in every instance.
  - guzfip 7mo ago
    So are disingenuous or just stupid? Of course society exists still, but what society? Only the very dumbest think “doom” is some apocalyptic scene from a Hollywood film in which humans are nearly wiped out. “Doom” is instead when swaths of Roman citizens with rights amidst a powerful, civically and technologically impressive hegemony, over time find themselves reduced to unfree serfs. They and their descendants would remain in that position for centuries until a horrific disease came through and killed so many of them that the serfdom became untenable.

whaleofatw2022 7mo ago

> People who predicted the flood of people entering Software via bootcamps, etc. would never cause any problems because their god of software is consuming the world too quickly for supply and demand to ever be a real concern. How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused problems at orgs and in the industry. Just look at all the linkedin/twitter/youtube garbage of influencers trying to post boot camp tier advice and a sizable portion of new developers latching on to often questionable advice/viewpoints.

guzfip 7mo ago
> How was this group vindicated? It absolutely has caused problems at orgs and in the industry. I think you misread. In fairness, I arranged the sentence awkwardly, as I do often. I think my mind was conjuring the various dooms and then trying to rephrase the doom into the doomer. What I mean is the people who warned against it were vindicated. Of course vindicated may not the best word to use. If I say the world blows up tomorrow and you say it can never, and then it blown up, perhaps I’m not necessarily vindicated. But I certainly get a brief moment of schadenfreude