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Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.

tencentshill 7mo ago
A market with regulations, vs. no regulations.
- Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
  Right so how are you going to find it and who is going to prosecute the insider trading here? My point isn't that an unregulated prediction market (Polymarket non-US markets are non-CFTC certified) can obscure insider trading. My point is that Brent has enough liquidity that an insider can trade without moving markets. There's plenty of insiders that work on a contract basis and aren't required to disclose trades by STOCK Act provisions for public disclosure. And honestly we aren't even out of the 45 day window around disclosures that would surface any Brent or WTI trades around the current Iran conflict anyway.
  - cosmojg 7mo ago
    Also, isn't insider trading the whole point of prediction markets? They were originally conceptualized as information aggregators.
    - kasey_junk 7mo ago
      People tend to use the term insider incorrectly. Even in cftc regulated markets it is unlikely that an admin official is an insider. What people are looking for is anti-corruption enforcement not market regulation. The problem isn’t that the admin is using advanced knowledge, all commodities trading involves that, it’s that the officials have an obligation to the public as part of their governmental service. Of course this admin _also_ gutted the anti-corruption offices in the government along with the market regulators.
    - munk-a 7mo ago
      If they were then that memo got lost when it reached the general populace that sees them as a gambling vehicle. I think it'd be extremely reasonable if people with qualified access to information like this were banned from leveraging it on prediction markets. If someone has news they want to get out they can just use the media.
- eunos 7mo ago
  Brent isn't security products so not covered under anti insider trading law right?
  - Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
    STOCK Act should cover commodities futures, so Brent and WTI should be covered.
eps 7mo ago
They did just that if we are to believe random reddit posts.
stevenwoo 7mo ago
Lots of lucky trades timed just prior to and in aftermath of latest Trump social media announcement. It could be coincidence or not. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futu...
- Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
  Yeah this is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.
hatthew 7mo ago
Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?
- Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
  Look, no offense here, but if you're this unaware of how oil markets work, and it seems like markets in general work, I suggest doing at least some initial googling before digesting this story. I realize for some the whole appeal of this kind of story is "look Trump bad" and then to get into the comments about how bad he is to play political sportsball, but insider trading is sadly a bipartisan phenomenon. No question though that this admin is the most brazen about its corruption in my lifetime though.
  - googlehater 7mo ago
    what's the point of your comment? it's a thread... on a forum of non experts... and he asked a question.
  - hatthew 7mo ago
    My understanding is that an individual works through a brokerage to buy/sell securities on an exchange. The brokerage knows who they are acting on behalf of, but not who is on the other side of the transaction. The public doesn't automatically know, except for government officials who are obligated to disclose their trading. In contrast, the fact that polymarket is crypo-based makes it a lot easier for people to be fully anonymous. What I'm not sure of is whether disclosure regulations would apply to all government officials who could plausibly have insider knowledge (probably not?), whether oil futures would be covered by those regulations (probably?), whether it's possible to be fully anonymous to the brokerage (probably not?), and how much access law enforcement has to information regarding who is making what trades (not much without a court orders?). I don't think that is a trivial amount of research to do, and I would guess the vast majority of people viewing this thread don't know the answers and will not try to find them out. I was hoping an expert would be able to enlighten us, so we can share informed opinions rather than uninformed opinions.
roadside_picnic 7mo ago
That more-or-less happened over the weekend [0]. Five minutes before Trump's unsurprising TACO announcement an unexpected large number of WTI futures contracts were sold and an even larger amount of S&P 500 futures were purchased. 0. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-...
- Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
  Yes that's my point. There's this whole new angle of prurient news where articles try to use the "anynomous nature" of Polymarket to play into an a corruption story as if it's all some new, dangerous game. But why? You can trade Brent or WTI and do the same exact thing with much less scrutiny. $800k of Brent futures is nothing, and instead of having to risk your entire bet going bust like in prediction markets and their binary outcomes you can just take a loss on your investment instead if you time your exit incorrectly.

tencentshill 7mo ago

A market with regulations, vs. no regulations.

Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
Right so how are you going to find it and who is going to prosecute the insider trading here? My point isn't that an unregulated prediction market (Polymarket non-US markets are non-CFTC certified) can obscure insider trading. My point is that Brent has enough liquidity that an insider can trade without moving markets. There's plenty of insiders that work on a contract basis and aren't required to disclose trades by STOCK Act provisions for public disclosure. And honestly we aren't even out of the 45 day window around disclosures that would surface any Brent or WTI trades around the current Iran conflict anyway.
- cosmojg 7mo ago
  Also, isn't insider trading the whole point of prediction markets? They were originally conceptualized as information aggregators.
  - kasey_junk 7mo ago
    People tend to use the term insider incorrectly. Even in cftc regulated markets it is unlikely that an admin official is an insider. What people are looking for is anti-corruption enforcement not market regulation. The problem isn’t that the admin is using advanced knowledge, all commodities trading involves that, it’s that the officials have an obligation to the public as part of their governmental service. Of course this admin _also_ gutted the anti-corruption offices in the government along with the market regulators.
  - munk-a 7mo ago
    If they were then that memo got lost when it reached the general populace that sees them as a gambling vehicle. I think it'd be extremely reasonable if people with qualified access to information like this were banned from leveraging it on prediction markets. If someone has news they want to get out they can just use the media.
eunos 7mo ago
Brent isn't security products so not covered under anti insider trading law right?
- Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
  STOCK Act should cover commodities futures, so Brent and WTI should be covered.

eps 7mo ago

They did just that if we are to believe random reddit posts.

stevenwoo 7mo ago

Lots of lucky trades timed just prior to and in aftermath of latest Trump social media announcement. It could be coincidence or not. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futu...

Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
Yeah this is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about.

hatthew 7mo ago

Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?

Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
Look, no offense here, but if you're this unaware of how oil markets work, and it seems like markets in general work, I suggest doing at least some initial googling before digesting this story. I realize for some the whole appeal of this kind of story is "look Trump bad" and then to get into the comments about how bad he is to play political sportsball, but insider trading is sadly a bipartisan phenomenon. No question though that this admin is the most brazen about its corruption in my lifetime though.
- googlehater 7mo ago
  what's the point of your comment? it's a thread... on a forum of non experts... and he asked a question.
- hatthew 7mo ago
  My understanding is that an individual works through a brokerage to buy/sell securities on an exchange. The brokerage knows who they are acting on behalf of, but not who is on the other side of the transaction. The public doesn't automatically know, except for government officials who are obligated to disclose their trading. In contrast, the fact that polymarket is crypo-based makes it a lot easier for people to be fully anonymous. What I'm not sure of is whether disclosure regulations would apply to all government officials who could plausibly have insider knowledge (probably not?), whether oil futures would be covered by those regulations (probably?), whether it's possible to be fully anonymous to the brokerage (probably not?), and how much access law enforcement has to information regarding who is making what trades (not much without a court orders?). I don't think that is a trivial amount of research to do, and I would guess the vast majority of people viewing this thread don't know the answers and will not try to find them out. I was hoping an expert would be able to enlighten us, so we can share informed opinions rather than uninformed opinions.

roadside_picnic 7mo ago

That more-or-less happened over the weekend [0]. Five minutes before Trump's unsurprising TACO announcement an unexpected large number of WTI futures contracts were sold and an even larger amount of S&P 500 futures were purchased. 0. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-futures-surged-minutes-before-trumps-market-turning-post.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-...

Karrot_Kream 7mo ago
Yes that's my point. There's this whole new angle of prurient news where articles try to use the "anynomous nature" of Polymarket to play into an a corruption story as if it's all some new, dangerous game. But why? You can trade Brent or WTI and do the same exact thing with much less scrutiny. $800k of Brent futures is nothing, and instead of having to risk your entire bet going bust like in prediction markets and their binary outcomes you can just take a loss on your investment instead if you time your exit incorrectly.