4 ms·

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deepl

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.

postflopclarity 7mo ago
> but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel somehow I feel like conditions may have changed since that data was collected. just a hunch.
- mikkupikku 7mo ago
  Safety / incident data collection and publishing from the FAA and NTSB are basically live, you'll get incidents logged within days at most and preliminary reports usually within a few weeks. What lags the most are data analysis and interpretations, but major newspapers should probably be prepared to do their own data analysis if they're making grand proclaiments like the collapse of an industry...
happytoexplain 7mo ago
We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand what you mean.
- n_u 7mo ago
  I think they mean they would prefer more rigorous statistical analysis. "Rigor cleans the window through which intuition shines" - Ellis Cooper
  - HPsquared 7mo ago
    "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though, so you'd still to apply judgement in any case. I suppose it's a word with many definitions.
    - KK7NIL 7mo ago
      > "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though Uh? Maybe you could explain what you mean by this a bit more.
      - HPsquared 7mo ago
        1. It's not a rigorously defined term. 2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it occurs?
        KK7NIL 7mo ago
        1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the Trump administration are higher than any similar length period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry. 2. See above.
        splitstud 7mo ago
        [dead]
- KK7NIL 7mo ago
  He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up, instead of anecdotal evidence.
  - flakiness 7mo ago
    +1 but this is The Atlantic so having a reasonable expectation would keep you sane.
  - happytoexplain 7mo ago
    This is a common kind of "data or nothing" fallacy. Data doesn't reliably capture evidence for the thesis "TSA agents and aviation workers are burning out and ICE is going to make it worse". The part that data is good for hasn't happened yet over a long enough timeline to reflect properly. If the argument is "deadly accidents are up over the past decade", then yes, of course, we must point to data. If the argument is, "the aviation industry might be on the verge of a steep decline in availability and/or safety due to recent political/financial problems", then what do you mean "show the data"? That doesn't make sense. It's a concern based on observation, which is fine if it's not presented as a fact. And if it turns out that a specific accident is due to said forces - what, we don't address those forces, because "data"?
    - KK7NIL 7mo ago
      I agree, but the article does specifically mention crashes as a symptom we're already seeing: > Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of failure. I have not read the entire article (paywalled), but the introduction sure seems to strongly imply that we're already seeing an unusually high rate of crashes.
toomuchtodo 7mo ago
Well, a tired, overextended air traffic controller at LaGuardia just caused two pilots to die last night while landing. How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system failure"? I presume for some, it's going to have to be a few airframes worth of passengers unfortunately. There is a shortage of air traffic controllers. Those working are being pushed to failure. The system as a whole is degrading. These are facts, based on evidence and observations. There is currently a shortage of ~3k controllers (as of this comment), and the time to train and put new controllers into service is significant. Excess retirements reduces time to system failure due to labor shortages. https://www.faa.gov/air-traffic-controller-qualifications https://www.faa.gov/air-traffic-controller-qualifications > Entry-level applicants must complete required training courses and spend several months at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City. Applicants are paid while in training. After graduating the academy, individuals are placed in locations across the country and must gain 2-3 years additional training, both classroom and on-the-job experience, before becoming a certified professional controller. This rigorous training includes close supervision and evaluation by senior controllers that ensures controllers are competent, professional, know their airspace environment and can deal with the pressures and high pace of the job. Controllers in training quit due to a lack of pay whenever a government shutdown occurs. This impairs the talent pipeline to improve system performance anytime a shutdown occurs. https://www.reddit.com/r/newyorkcity/comments/1s1eh14/i_messed_up_the_chilling_air_traffic_control/oc053t4/ https://www.reddit.com/r/newyorkcity/comments/1s1eh14/i_mess... US air traffic controllers start resigning as shutdown bites - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860865 - November 2025 (365 comments) Flights to Los Angeles Airport halted due to air traffic controller shortage - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45715771 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45715771 - October 2025 (11 comments) > The shutdown is having real consequences, as some students at the controller academy have already decided to abandon the profession because they don’t want to work in a job they won’t be paid for, Duffy said. That will only make it harder for the FAA to hire enough controllers to eliminate the shortage, since training takes years. He said that the government is only a week or two away from running out of money to pay students at the academy. Air traffic controller shortages cause widespread flight delays amid government shutdown - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/air-traffic-controller-shortages-cause-widespread-flight-delays-rcna241284 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/air-traffic-controller-... - November 1st, 2025 > “Currently nearly 50 percent of major air traffic control facilities are experiencing staffing shortages, and nearly 90 percent of air traffic controllers are out at New York–area facilities,” the FAA said in a statement posted on X on Friday evening. Do you feel lucky?
marcosdumay 7mo ago
I don't think you can make any statistical argument from accident data from a single year. Yes, there is universal data out there. But those events are so rare that you almost never can differentiate a normal year from an abnormal one.
- fny 7mo ago
  You absolutely can see a difference. [0] The term of art is "Runway Incursions", and the stats definitely show our airports are working at the limits of safety. [0]: https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-calls-u-s-airports-with-the-highest-near-miss-rates/ https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-calls-u...
  - marcosdumay 7mo ago
    That's a 7 years graph, where category A incursions change by 0.7σ, and total incursions are basically horizontal. What statistical conclusion are you taking from it?
    - jjk166 7mo ago
      Category A and B incursions increased by 2.8σ. Further, it was 7 years of increases in a row. Either factor on its own would indicate a process out of statistical control.
msabalau 7mo ago
We have "proper numbers" for the full range of issues covered in the essay? From airport aesthetics to El Paso being shut down because of lack of coordination around anti-drone testing, or something? The article is not just about safety, or some other singular topic with clear statistics. Just because this sentiment will get some cheap upvotes from people who didn't engage with the article doesn't be that the author should have searched for keys under streetlights to provide a false appearance of rigor. This is an essay from the Atlantic Daily, which is responding, in real time, to the events of the day. It's a minor work of commentary, it is not supposed to be in-depth reporting, and it's bit odd to feel ought to have been a work of investigative reporting, which the Atlantic also does, seperately.
fzeroracer 7mo ago
I'm curious: If your boss emailed you and all of your coworkers with mass buyout offers and demanded that they quit their job how many do you think would take up the offer? 10%? 20%? Do you think it would be enough to cause significant organizational issues?
wetpaws 7mo ago
[dead]

postflopclarity 7mo ago

> but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel somehow I feel like conditions may have changed since that data was collected. just a hunch.

mikkupikku 7mo ago
Safety / incident data collection and publishing from the FAA and NTSB are basically live, you'll get incidents logged within days at most and preliminary reports usually within a few weeks. What lags the most are data analysis and interpretations, but major newspapers should probably be prepared to do their own data analysis if they're making grand proclaiments like the collapse of an industry...

happytoexplain 7mo ago

We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand what you mean.

n_u 7mo ago
I think they mean they would prefer more rigorous statistical analysis. "Rigor cleans the window through which intuition shines" - Ellis Cooper
- HPsquared 7mo ago
  "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though, so you'd still to apply judgement in any case. I suppose it's a word with many definitions.
  - KK7NIL 7mo ago
    > "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though Uh? Maybe you could explain what you mean by this a bit more.
    - HPsquared 7mo ago
      1. It's not a rigorously defined term. 2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it occurs?
      - KK7NIL 7mo ago
        1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the Trump administration are higher than any similar length period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry. 2. See above.
        splitstud 7mo ago
        [dead]
KK7NIL 7mo ago
He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up, instead of anecdotal evidence.
- flakiness 7mo ago
  +1 but this is The Atlantic so having a reasonable expectation would keep you sane.
- happytoexplain 7mo ago
  This is a common kind of "data or nothing" fallacy. Data doesn't reliably capture evidence for the thesis "TSA agents and aviation workers are burning out and ICE is going to make it worse". The part that data is good for hasn't happened yet over a long enough timeline to reflect properly. If the argument is "deadly accidents are up over the past decade", then yes, of course, we must point to data. If the argument is, "the aviation industry might be on the verge of a steep decline in availability and/or safety due to recent political/financial problems", then what do you mean "show the data"? That doesn't make sense. It's a concern based on observation, which is fine if it's not presented as a fact. And if it turns out that a specific accident is due to said forces - what, we don't address those forces, because "data"?
  - KK7NIL 7mo ago
    I agree, but the article does specifically mention crashes as a symptom we're already seeing: > Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of failure. I have not read the entire article (paywalled), but the introduction sure seems to strongly imply that we're already seeing an unusually high rate of crashes.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago

Well, a tired, overextended air traffic controller at LaGuardia just caused two pilots to die last night while landing. How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system failure"? I presume for some, it's going to have to be a few airframes worth of passengers unfortunately. There is a shortage of air traffic controllers. Those working are being pushed to failure. The system as a whole is degrading. These are facts, based on evidence and observations. There is currently a shortage of ~3k controllers (as of this comment), and the time to train and put new controllers into service is significant. Excess retirements reduces time to system failure due to labor shortages. https://www.faa.gov/air-traffic-controller-qualifications https://www.faa.gov/air-traffic-controller-qualifications > Entry-level applicants must complete required training courses and spend several months at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City. Applicants are paid while in training. After graduating the academy, individuals are placed in locations across the country and must gain 2-3 years additional training, both classroom and on-the-job experience, before becoming a certified professional controller. This rigorous training includes close supervision and evaluation by senior controllers that ensures controllers are competent, professional, know their airspace environment and can deal with the pressures and high pace of the job. Controllers in training quit due to a lack of pay whenever a government shutdown occurs. This impairs the talent pipeline to improve system performance anytime a shutdown occurs. https://www.reddit.com/r/newyorkcity/comments/1s1eh14/i_messed_up_the_chilling_air_traffic_control/oc053t4/ https://www.reddit.com/r/newyorkcity/comments/1s1eh14/i_mess... US air traffic controllers start resigning as shutdown bites - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860865 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860865 - November 2025 (365 comments) Flights to Los Angeles Airport halted due to air traffic controller shortage - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45715771 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45715771 - October 2025 (11 comments) > The shutdown is having real consequences, as some students at the controller academy have already decided to abandon the profession because they don’t want to work in a job they won’t be paid for, Duffy said. That will only make it harder for the FAA to hire enough controllers to eliminate the shortage, since training takes years. He said that the government is only a week or two away from running out of money to pay students at the academy. Air traffic controller shortages cause widespread flight delays amid government shutdown - https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/air-traffic-controller-shortages-cause-widespread-flight-delays-rcna241284 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/air-traffic-controller-... - November 1st, 2025 > “Currently nearly 50 percent of major air traffic control facilities are experiencing staffing shortages, and nearly 90 percent of air traffic controllers are out at New York–area facilities,” the FAA said in a statement posted on X on Friday evening. Do you feel lucky?

marcosdumay 7mo ago

I don't think you can make any statistical argument from accident data from a single year. Yes, there is universal data out there. But those events are so rare that you almost never can differentiate a normal year from an abnormal one.

fny 7mo ago
You absolutely can see a difference. [0] The term of art is "Runway Incursions", and the stats definitely show our airports are working at the limits of safety. [0]: https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-calls-u-s-airports-with-the-highest-near-miss-rates/ https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-calls-u...
- marcosdumay 7mo ago
  That's a 7 years graph, where category A incursions change by 0.7σ, and total incursions are basically horizontal. What statistical conclusion are you taking from it?
  - jjk166 7mo ago
    Category A and B incursions increased by 2.8σ. Further, it was 7 years of increases in a row. Either factor on its own would indicate a process out of statistical control.

msabalau 7mo ago

We have "proper numbers" for the full range of issues covered in the essay? From airport aesthetics to El Paso being shut down because of lack of coordination around anti-drone testing, or something? The article is not just about safety, or some other singular topic with clear statistics. Just because this sentiment will get some cheap upvotes from people who didn't engage with the article doesn't be that the author should have searched for keys under streetlights to provide a false appearance of rigor. This is an essay from the Atlantic Daily, which is responding, in real time, to the events of the day. It's a minor work of commentary, it is not supposed to be in-depth reporting, and it's bit odd to feel ought to have been a work of investigative reporting, which the Atlantic also does, seperately.

fzeroracer 7mo ago

I'm curious: If your boss emailed you and all of your coworkers with mass buyout offers and demanded that they quit their job how many do you think would take up the offer? 10%? 20%? Do you think it would be enough to cause significant organizational issues?

wetpaws 7mo ago

[dead]