6 ms·

Fortunately, fossil fuels are a stable and geopolitically risk-free source of energy.

by adriand 7mo ago

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
This will not be a learned more robustly in the US until one or both of the only two (edit: major) gas turbine manufacturers in the world (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy) suffer a tail risk event causing their failure. Backlog for new gas turbines is ~7 years, as of this comment. Continued production capacity is a function of how fragile those two companies are. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-turbine-crunch-threatens-asian-lng-demand-bonanza https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-tu... | https://archive.today/z4Ixw https://archive.today/z4Ixw - October 7th, 2025 AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch - https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turbines/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turb... | https://archive.today/b8bhn https://archive.today/b8bhn - October 1st, 2025 (think in systems)
- skywal_l 7mo ago
  Isn't there Ansaldo Energia too?
  - toomuchtodo 7mo ago
    Yes, but their production volume is limited (imho) compared to the two companies I mentioned. Good callout regardless. I'll have a post put together to share here enumerating and comparing. (i track global fossil generation production capacity as a component of tracking the overall rate of global energy transition to clean energy and electrification, but some of my resources are simply an excel spreadsheet)
    - RealityVoid 7mo ago
      Hah, that's super interesting. How are we looking? What under served areas are you seeing? Do you post anywhere your numbers?
- bluGill 7mo ago
  Both of those are big wind tubine manufactres as well.
  - tadfisher 7mo ago
    Luckily, the wind futures market is pretty bullish for the foreseeable future
ecshafer 7mo ago
The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy.
- krige 7mo ago
  > The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy. Oh boy can't wait for the reenactment of third reich intervening peacefully in czechoslovakia, for their own safety and wellbeing of course, and not at all for the resources they're hoarding, the filthy hoarders.
- idle_zealot 7mo ago
  Sure, if we build out refining capacity for the next ten years. Then we're golden until we run out of the finite well of combustible dead algae. So if you think we can revitalize American manufacturing and resource processing starting now, and you're okay with those investments being worthless in a few decades, and you don't give a shit about rendering the planet significantly less habitable to human life, then yeah, we're totally self-sufficient with fossil fuels. Or we could, you know, pull energy out of the air and sun, a strategy which will be viable until our star dies.
  - bryanlarsen 7mo ago
    Alberta tar sands have hundreds of years worth of reserves. They're also expensive and incredibly dirty to extract and emit significantly more CO2 during processing than a light oil well will. (The tar is usually melted by heating with natural gas). I'm quite confident cheap renewable alternatives will make the tar sands inviable far before they run out.
    - munk-a 7mo ago
      Some good news though, with the war in Iran the spiking oil price means that Albertan executives can ramp up operations and stay quite profitable! Push the price to 200/barrel and we'll just strip mine the entire province after airlifting out Calgary and Edmonton.
thecarbonista 7mo ago
[dead]
TheOtherHobbes 7mo ago
They're a relatively stable and risk-free source of money for a certain kind of politician. The energy part is incidental.
- tsunamifury 7mo ago
  Is this the biggest Woosh of the year?
  - phil21 7mo ago
    Is this comment on purpose? The whooshes are getting hard to track!
rapnie 7mo ago
And clean. Really, really clean. Just look at coal. A no-brainer. Go for it.
- kube-system 7mo ago
  You mean "clean coal", right? Of course it's clean, it's right in the name.
  - mikkupikku 7mo ago
    People laugh at this, but anthracite genuinely is cleaner than other coal in every regard save CO2 emissions. People just think it's a joke because they've come to believe that CO2 is the only coal emission worth caring about, which definitely isn't true.
    - hatthew 7mo ago
      "Clean coal" is like saying "a fast snail". Sure it can be faster than other snails, but even if it's twice as fast as the second fastest snail, it's still a snail and I'll still laugh when an ant runs circles around it.
    - kube-system 7mo ago
      No, the criticism isn't because people get caught up about CO2 -- it's because "cleaner than other coal" is a very low bar to meet to be calling something "clean" full stop. Also "clean coal" is not a type of coal being burnt (although that does matter too) but pollution control systems added to coal plants.
      - mikkupikku 7mo ago
        Anthracite burns clean enough to use in a pizza oven. If your neighbor told you he was going to install a new furnace and offered you the choice of it burning wood pellets or anthracite, from a smell standpoint you should absolutely choose the anthracite. Anthracite, in these regards, is very different from bituminous coal.
MikeNotThePope 7mo ago
They are also organic, all-natural, and fat-free! And renewable on geological timescales.
- skywal_l 7mo ago
  Contrary to windmills, which slows down the rotation of the earth.
  - margalabargala 7mo ago
    Doesn't that depend whether you point them east or west? Point them north and you'll increase Earth's axial tilt.
    - hedgehog 7mo ago
      I think you just solved both leap seconds and daylight savings time.
  - munk-a 7mo ago
    Won't someone think of the ~children~ birds?!
  - Garlef 7mo ago
    No problem: Just build a subterranean boat and launch a few nukes close to the core to restart rotation.
  - triceratops 7mo ago
    I personally would like more hours in the day.
throwingcookies 7mo ago
The US has their own oil fields. If they can burn down the EU in that ongoing crisis, they don't care. That's likely the strategy the administration is running.

Fortunately, fossil fuels are a stable and geopolitically risk-free source of energy.

by adriand 7mo ago

Fortunately, fossil fuels are a stable and geopolitically risk-free source of energy.

This will not be a learned more robustly in the US until one or both of the only two (edit: major) gas turbine manufacturers in the world (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy) suffer a tail risk event causing their failure. Backlog for new gas turbines is ~7 years, as of this comment. Continued production capacity is a function of how fragile those two companies are. The White House’s Bet on Fossil Fuels Is Already Losing - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-house-fossil-fuel-bet-is-losing-to-green-energy https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-... | https://archive.today/vpvch https://archive.today/vpvch - October 28th, 2025 Gas-Turbine Crunch Threatens Demand Bonanza in Asia - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-turbine-crunch-threatens-asian-lng-demand-bonanza https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-07/gas-tu... | https://archive.today/z4Ixw https://archive.today/z4Ixw - October 7th, 2025 AI-Driven Demand for Gas Turbines Risks a New Energy Crunch - https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turbines/ https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-bottlenecks-gas-turb... | https://archive.today/b8bhn https://archive.today/b8bhn - October 1st, 2025 (think in systems)

skywal_l 7mo ago
Isn't there Ansaldo Energia too?
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  Yes, but their production volume is limited (imho) compared to the two companies I mentioned. Good callout regardless. I'll have a post put together to share here enumerating and comparing. (i track global fossil generation production capacity as a component of tracking the overall rate of global energy transition to clean energy and electrification, but some of my resources are simply an excel spreadsheet)
  - RealityVoid 7mo ago
    Hah, that's super interesting. How are we looking? What under served areas are you seeing? Do you post anywhere your numbers?
bluGill 7mo ago
Both of those are big wind tubine manufactres as well.
- tadfisher 7mo ago
  Luckily, the wind futures market is pretty bullish for the foreseeable future

ecshafer 7mo ago

The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy.

krige 7mo ago
> The US (with Canada and Mexico) is self-sufficient with fossil fuel energy. Oh boy can't wait for the reenactment of third reich intervening peacefully in czechoslovakia, for their own safety and wellbeing of course, and not at all for the resources they're hoarding, the filthy hoarders.
idle_zealot 7mo ago
Sure, if we build out refining capacity for the next ten years. Then we're golden until we run out of the finite well of combustible dead algae. So if you think we can revitalize American manufacturing and resource processing starting now, and you're okay with those investments being worthless in a few decades, and you don't give a shit about rendering the planet significantly less habitable to human life, then yeah, we're totally self-sufficient with fossil fuels. Or we could, you know, pull energy out of the air and sun, a strategy which will be viable until our star dies.
- bryanlarsen 7mo ago
  Alberta tar sands have hundreds of years worth of reserves. They're also expensive and incredibly dirty to extract and emit significantly more CO2 during processing than a light oil well will. (The tar is usually melted by heating with natural gas). I'm quite confident cheap renewable alternatives will make the tar sands inviable far before they run out.
  - munk-a 7mo ago
    Some good news though, with the war in Iran the spiking oil price means that Albertan executives can ramp up operations and stay quite profitable! Push the price to 200/barrel and we'll just strip mine the entire province after airlifting out Calgary and Edmonton.

thecarbonista 7mo ago

[dead]

TheOtherHobbes 7mo ago

They're a relatively stable and risk-free source of money for a certain kind of politician. The energy part is incidental.

tsunamifury 7mo ago
Is this the biggest Woosh of the year?
- phil21 7mo ago
  Is this comment on purpose? The whooshes are getting hard to track!

rapnie 7mo ago

And clean. Really, really clean. Just look at coal. A no-brainer. Go for it.

kube-system 7mo ago
You mean "clean coal", right? Of course it's clean, it's right in the name.
- mikkupikku 7mo ago
  People laugh at this, but anthracite genuinely is cleaner than other coal in every regard save CO2 emissions. People just think it's a joke because they've come to believe that CO2 is the only coal emission worth caring about, which definitely isn't true.
  - hatthew 7mo ago
    "Clean coal" is like saying "a fast snail". Sure it can be faster than other snails, but even if it's twice as fast as the second fastest snail, it's still a snail and I'll still laugh when an ant runs circles around it.
  - kube-system 7mo ago
    No, the criticism isn't because people get caught up about CO2 -- it's because "cleaner than other coal" is a very low bar to meet to be calling something "clean" full stop. Also "clean coal" is not a type of coal being burnt (although that does matter too) but pollution control systems added to coal plants.
    - mikkupikku 7mo ago
      Anthracite burns clean enough to use in a pizza oven. If your neighbor told you he was going to install a new furnace and offered you the choice of it burning wood pellets or anthracite, from a smell standpoint you should absolutely choose the anthracite. Anthracite, in these regards, is very different from bituminous coal.

MikeNotThePope 7mo ago

They are also organic, all-natural, and fat-free! And renewable on geological timescales.

skywal_l 7mo ago
Contrary to windmills, which slows down the rotation of the earth.
- margalabargala 7mo ago
  Doesn't that depend whether you point them east or west? Point them north and you'll increase Earth's axial tilt.
  - hedgehog 7mo ago
    I think you just solved both leap seconds and daylight savings time.
- munk-a 7mo ago
  Won't someone think of the ~children~ birds?!
- Garlef 7mo ago
  No problem: Just build a subterranean boat and launch a few nukes close to the core to restart rotation.
- triceratops 7mo ago
  I personally would like more hours in the day.

throwingcookies 7mo ago

The US has their own oil fields. If they can burn down the EU in that ongoing crisis, they don't care. That's likely the strategy the administration is running.