7 ms·

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and th

• jghn 7mo ago
  > But will companies start hiring again? Anecdata, but the few people I know who were looking to switch gigs all had multiple offers within a few weeks. One thing they all had in common was taking a very targeted approach with their search and leveraging their networks. Not spamming thousands of resumes into the ether.
  • jmye 7mo ago
    > leveraging their networks Just finished a search - agree. The resume process is fundamentally broken, but a strong network makes it irrelevant. Lean on connections - there's a ton of opportunity out there.
  • GeoAtreides 7mo ago
    so you either are well connected or you starve, got it guess it's death and destitute for introverts edit: please explain the downvotes, i'm curious why you think i'm wrong if what op says it's true, that today only networking works, then it easily follows that if for some reasons you do not have a network then you don't get hired
    • bogzz 7mo ago
      Seems like that is the case, yes.
    • jghn 7mo ago
      Anyone who has been in the industry for several years or more should have people they can reach out to. That’s not being well connected. This is really just a reversion to how things used to work, relying on human connections. People seemed to manage to get jobs 30 years ago just fine
      • tavavex 7mo ago
        What if you weren't in the industry for several years or more? New grads are completely walled off from the industry because very few employers are willing to give them a shot anymore, even at minimum wage and no other demands from this most desperate worker segment. The few connections I scraped together weren't helpful because barely anyone is hiring juniors anymore. Having one of the resumes on top of someone's pile is only helpful if they ever get to using it. If you're at the lower end of the market, you have to be very exceptional or very lucky. Otherwise, you're done for.
    • lionkor 7mo ago
      I'm currently involved in the hiring process in our company, selecting engineers for my team. If someone applies who has the programming language we ask for in their CV, they get a first interview. If they can read code, and write VERY basic code, they will get through at least the first 2 rounds without any issues. If people put down the AI, and actually learn how to write a `for` loop, they would be more hire-able than 50% of candidates. > "Guess it's death [...] for introverts" There is a meritocracy somewhere in our capitalist system. Not everyone participates, but it exists.
      • GeoAtreides 7mo ago
        OP was saying the only way to get hired is through work connections of course if the process doesn't involve networking then we don't have a problem, we agree on that
  • amunozo 7mo ago
    I'm looking for jobs after my PhD and I notice the same things. I only get interviews and advance in processes when I target the right jobs and companies. Sadly, not too much network to leverage.
• miah_ 7mo ago
  I've worked in tech since the late 90's and recently became an apprentice potter. My work in pottery is so much more fulfilling than any tech work I've done. I wish I had started sooner. I'm still working in tech, and likely will forever in a much reduced capacity. But pottery is my life now.
• samiv 7mo ago
  I cannot but agree. It's a massive skill leveling where software development is transforming from high skilled coding to low skilled prompting. For an old dog like myself it feels an unjust rug pull.
  • bonoboTP 7mo ago
    I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others. I know many jobs are about giving partial access to secrets or insider knowledge etc but I simply can't see myself accepting that this is my value proposition. No, let the pie grow. Let more people be able to do more things. Use the new capabilities to do even more. See how you can provide genuine value in the new environment. I know it isn't easy. There are many unknowns. But at least aspirationally I see that as the only positive way forward. The same thing has happened to many jobs. 100 years ago being a photographer was a difficult skill. They must have felt a rug pull when compact cameras became mainstream and they were no longer called to take all family pictures. Surely the codex writers felt a rug pull when printing became widespread. Typesetters when people could use word processors on their PC with font settings. Prop designers and practical effects people when movies switched to vfx. Etc etc.
    • jwolfe 7mo ago
      > I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others. That's an incredibly uncharitable reading of the parent comment. At no point in history prior to maybe this year could you argue that working in software was gatekeeping, toll extracting, or rent seeking. Being a highly skilled craftsperson creating software for those who can't or don't want to is a very psychologically positive self identification. Lamenting that the industry is moving away from highly skilled craftspeople is also perfectly valid, even if you believe that it is somehow good for society, which is yet to become clear.
      • 7mo ago
• yunwal 7mo ago
  > A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away. Further standardization of tires or wage increases would probably do the trick. There’s still plenty of software to be created. You’ll probably have to learn some ML tricks or whatever, but there’s nothing going away, just changing as software has always done.
  • reaperducer 7mo ago
    There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away. Sounds like you've never changed a tire. Or at least not outside of a very controlled environment.
    • tayo42 7mo ago
      Are most cars not just undoing the lock, the bolts, switching the tire and redoing the bolts and locks? How are these put on in the first place on an assembly line?
      • sharkjacobs 7mo ago
        This is the funniest possible answer to "Sounds like you've never changed a tire. Or at least not outside of a very controlled environment." "Oh, you think I've never changed a tire? Well here is my abstract high level understanding of the steps to changing a tire! And have you considered the quintessential controlled environment for putting tires onto cars?"
        • tayo42 7mo ago
          We all change tires with a jack and a spare? It's like a simple skill? I don't get the point your making then?
          • nogridbag 7mo ago
            The tire is the black rubber that's mounted to the wheel. Tire shops don't give you a new wheel when you get a flat tire.
• bethekidyouwant 7mo ago
  You must be joking that being a car mechanic is anything like it was 20 years ago.
  • slfnflctd 7mo ago
    The vast majority of tires that need to be repaired or replaced (and the processes to do so) haven't changed much if at all, though. And there are entire franchises that pretty much only do tires. Same with many other manual labor tasks. These are predictable jobs with very few variables that there is still no sign of automation replacing any time soon. They often don't suck as bad as people think. One of the most enjoyable jobs I had was on an assembly line, because my mind was mostly free to wander. It was almost like meditation.
    • bonoboTP 7mo ago
      Hm, why don't you just go do it then? Seems strange to spread this knowledge and create competition for yourself. Theres a reason most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college instead of to such manual jobs.
      • bogzz 7mo ago
        Money.
      • slfnflctd 7mo ago
        > most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college Part of the reason for my prior comment is the clear fact that a not-insignificant percentage of white collar jobs are being massively devalued at the moment, which means many people who thought they'd be able to send their kids to college with income from such jobs won't. Considering that the field of robotics is so far behind LLMs in terms of clear value outside of niche industrial applications, I think manual labor is about due for a resurgence. There may be some major rebalancing happening. The big question for laborers will be - as it has always been - what can I do that sucks the least but also allows me to pay for a decent life? Answers will vary.
• bonoboTP 7mo ago
  There is infinite amount of software to be made. Desires and wants never get satisfied. There will simply be more software, more features, more supported platforms, more bug checks, more tests, more CI/CD, more docs, more websites, more services, more more more. Once we solve something, we have a million new desires that we want to solve. There will be plenty of work in software, up until the time when really all knowledge work can be replaced. At that point all bets are off.
  • thejokeisonme 7mo ago
    I'm also being on Jevon's paradox in the case of software. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
  • tavavex 7mo ago
    Do you think all software demands are completely elastic? I don't share your confidence, it feels like it's applying the desired conclusion to the premise. For sure, newer technology prompts new solutions and new tools to use with it, but some industries are much less flexible than others. If your business serves a certain number of clients - for example, companies that work in a specific industry that's growth-constrained - then making software twice as easy to make isn't going to double the number of their clients. That business you work for will either have to look at expanding into a different market, or, more realistically, lay off all the unneeded workers. There's a lot of businesses that work like that. What are they going to grow into?
    • bonoboTP 7mo ago
      Competing software companies will offer more and more advanced software that handles more use cases, faster, better, with more features, with more compatibility, with more flexibility, with more integrations, with more ease of use, with more etc etc. They will propose software solutions for things that are currently not economical to provide. And other competing software companies will have to match that or do even more.
• cyber_kinetist 7mo ago
  I think the bigger issue is not that LLMs are taking away developer jobs, but the current geopolitical crisis (the collapse of the US empire and the end of the neoliberal era) is leading towards an imminent economic catastrophe, and that would be enough to pop not only the AI bubble, but an even bigger "IT bubble" that has been proliferating since the 90s. Programmers (and other white collar jobs) were able to luxuriously coast along the ZIRP era because capital (replenished twice via quantitative easing) was cheap and plentiful, and because the elites at the top had to pump huge amounts money to create a shared fantasy of the "technological future" that validates the neoliberal era. Now that the reality of the actual "physical economy" (the economy of making tangible things) has clawed back at us because of that forbidden three-letter word (war), we all realize that doubling and tripling oil prices were actually dictating our lives rather than some "Skynet AI" crap, and thus our fantasy simulacra of "virtual" play-things have now come to an end. Oh and we all found out that most of SaaS was actually bullshit anyway. In fact, if it could be completely replaced by AI then it was already pretty bullshit in the first place. So, for smart STEM people uninterested in programming and only looking for a stable career, I think they would be better off by just doing engineering work that's a bit more tangible, like robotics, manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, etc. (Or anything related to war, but only if you're able to stomach what you're doing.) If you don't like to sit all day for a salary, then niche blue collar work can also be a good option, since general-purpose robotics (Physical AI?) is still too far away because of many, many issues that's just too long to explain here. I still think if you like programming then you should stick to it in the long run - there will be a very cold winter because of the combination of LLMs, AI bubble pop, and general economic depression, but for those who survive this era there will be an opportunity because of the shortage of skilled programmers (since no-one bothered to hire juniors after the pop, no one will grow to become seniors themselves!) Computing will still be with us forever, just not in a way that investors thought that it's going to "engulf the world".
  • drstewart 7mo ago
    I would say if all of your doomastrophizing comes to light (the myriad of collapses and depressions and winters in your post), then there is no opportunity for anyone anywhere, and we should all stock up on bullets and cigarettes while we can. But something tells me you won't do that.
• tavavex 7mo ago
  > A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. If I had no debt and a little bit saved up I might just content myself with a humble moat like that. Bad idea. Automotive repair is barely a moat, because you don't need that much training to work those jobs. There's a lot of people who want to do it. And cars are definitely susceptible to recessions - if fewer people are buying cars, if there's a shift to transit, if your locality builds more pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, if businesses that use work vehicles are forced to close, then your demand drops and everyone already in the field is forced to compete with one another. For moats, look for things that are complex (not everyone can do it), licensed and always needed.
  • BasilofBasiley 7mo ago
    >Automotive repair is barely a moat, because you don't need that much training to work those jobs. You need to study for 3 years to be a car mechanic. And even then you'll need baby sitting for a while in the auto-shop because no one trusts the new guy fresh out of school, with good reason. >There's a lot of people who want to do it. No there isn't. What do you mean by lot of people? Automotive repair is a blue collar job with intense physical strain, you're exposed to chemicals you shouldn't be, there will be hearing loss involved no matter how much protection you have and it doesn't even pay all that well, considering the risks involved and the amount of training you need. And no, it's not because the market is saturated with car mechanics, it's because auto repair shops have a lot of pressure to be cheap. Job listings are full of car mechanic openings, you'll never be unemployed. All the "if's" presented are solved by relocation and not even that much of it, except for this: >if fewer people are buying cars Then the skills are easily transferable to other vehicles. But less people are buying cars already, they use uber, which involves a car. A car that needs 10x more repair time than the car you drive daily. So yeah, auto repair is a good moat. It's complex, not everyone can do it, it's not licensed in most cases (unless you work for a brand or a niche) but there's reputation involved and it's always needed. It just doesn't pay all that well, specially not compared to what I see on HN's monthly whoshiring.
  • QuiEgo 7mo ago
    Electricians are on a rip right now with all the data center build outs and will likely always be in demand.
• Semiapies 7mo ago
  I'm maybe less pessimistic, but I expect in the next decade or two, I'm going to spend a lot of time fixing apps that people who were moderately technical vibe-coded years before. They seemed to work well enough until they didn't, and at some point, they became central to the business. MS Access and so many more "you won't need a programmer again" dev tools over the decades blazed the trail.
• amunozo 7mo ago
  Green is always greener on the other side. You can always work on that, get an apprenticeship and work on it. Why don't you do it? Because you know not everything's so rosy. These are hard jobs, not super well paid. But well, I feel like you too.