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> some country that has a shot at remaining a stable and predictable geopolitical entity over the next century. Which country do you believe could possibly qua
by philipov 7mo ago
> some country that has a shot at remaining a stable and predictable geopolitical entity over the next century.
Which country do you believe could possibly qualify for such an impossible task?
- nemomarx 7mo agoChina's probably making the best argument for it now.
- gerdesj 7mo agoChina's wot?
- fc417fc802 7mo agoI don't personally like their government but at this point they certainly have the appearance of long term social and political stability. More than most western countries for the time being.
- andrewflnr 7mo agoTotalitarianism aside, I'm not sure about the stability either. Personally I suspect Xi Jinping's reign will end with some kind of bang, either an economic one or something relating to invading Taiwan.
- nemomarx 7mo agoWould the us currently defend Taiwan? I think they might get the chance to just take it, especially if we get another president like Trump in 28.
- fc417fc802 7mo agoIf Japan became involved would the US then become embroiled?
- junofan 7mo agoYes obviously. We would erase President Xi and his family as well. What are they going to do, cross the Pacific? Our total willingness to do is unconditional.
- andrewflnr 7mo agoNo idea, honestly. But if I lived in Taiwan I would be shitting bricks.
- slavik81 7mo agoTaiwan's biggest problem is that the average age is currently ~45 and in 15 years it will be ~55. It's going to be hard to keep the economy going once half the country's retired.
- fc417fc802 7mo agoA dramatic end to his reign doesn't have to imply social or political instability (though it certainly could).
- nozzlegear 7mo ago> they certainly have the appearance of long term social and political stability You could've said that exact same thing about the US just 10 years ago when Obama was president.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- pydry 7mo agoThe only real difference between Obama's foreign adventures in Libya and Trump's in Iran was that Obama lied to the security council to get their approval first. Trump isnt all that different in character to previous administrations he just takes bigger risks and doesnt bother with the mask.
- nozzlegear 7mo agoThe person I was replying to was talking about China's own long-term social and political stability, not their foreign policy. If you're suggesting that Obama's boondoggle in Libya was the catalyst that led to Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016 and Trump's first presidency, that's intriguing speculation. But I don't think his foreign policy is relevant to the overall topic since it was largely milquetoast for the American public at the time, and certainly didn't cause any immediate domestic instability like we're seeing with Trump.
- ungreased0675 7mo agoChina has a host of factors that make their current system very fragile. I doubt they make it five more years before turbulence hits.
- fc417fc802 7mo agoI'd be interested to read about that if you have any particular pointers to resources to share.
- __d 7mo agoI've been hearing that since the 1990's when it first started to become apparent that their economy was on track to overtake the rest of the world within a few decades. It hasn't happened yet. Is there something you perceive as especially problematic now, as opposed to the last 30 years?
- defrost 7mo agoThey'll likely skate over the current turbulence that's already hitting many non-China countries. China has been preparing for a global energy crisis for years. It is paying off now As other Asian economies race to conserve energy, China has huge reserves of oil and gas as well as alternative energy sources like wind and solar https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-reserves-global-energy-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/20/china-oil-rese...
- pydry 7mo agoBeen hearing that said repeatedly since 1989. I've never once heard it from somebody who correctly anticipated China's rise though. The imminent collapse story just quietly changes every 5 years or so. If the US has an imperial rival one thing you can almost guarantee is that the predictions of economic collapse will be as frequent as they are absurdly overblown and as always, This Time It's Different.
- cthalupa 7mo agoLook, if Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan continue to predict China will fall for long enough, someday they'll be right. Maybe. Probably.
- imtringued 7mo agoThat's true, but the one child policy has backed them into a corner. A society that is unwilling to replace itself will inevitably decline.
- swiftcoder 7mo ago> the one child policy has backed them into a corner A policy that ended a decade ago, and was only ever marginally successful (even at the height of the restrictions their birth rate was nearer 1.4 than 1.0)
- ralferoo 7mo agoThe one child policy was only for cities anyway. Agricultural areas were permitted, even encouraged, to have more children. There were other exceptions, like twins (obviously), if the first baby was disabled, etc. Later on, couples were allowed two children if both parents came from single-child families.
- defrost 7mo agoThe policy in place for 36 years, that ended 11 years ago had pros and cons, but it hasn't backed them into a corner of inevitable decline. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy
- ta9000 7mo ago> Totalitarianism aside, I'm not sure about the stability either. Personally I suspect Xi Jinping's reign will end with some kind of bang, either an economic one or something relating to That’s a pretty big aside.
- andrewflnr 7mo agoNot sure why you replied over here, but yeah, it sure is. Just trying to be clear about separating the moral judgement from the prediction.
- ta9000 7mo agoNesting.
- andrewflnr 7mo agoOne or more of the Nordics.
- WastedCucumber 7mo agoAt first I took the comment about transferring nukes as a bit of a joke, but you make a fair point. Let Iceland have em!
- fc417fc802 7mo agoGreenland can make a competing bid on the basis of a pressing need.
- jacquesm 7mo agoThat's one that I didn't have on my bingo card for 2026 but it is funny to contemplate.
- gerdesj 7mo agoSo, Sweden.
- andrewflnr 7mo agoThey're also starting to talk about a joint nuclear program.
- morkalork 7mo agoAs they should be