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Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields
- tengbretson 7mo agoUniting to fight gasfields might be just the common enemy that Iran and Israel need to finally mend this relationship.
- axus 7mo agoIf you had a secret agenda to reduce the world's carbon production, this is one way to go about it.
- cousin_it 7mo agoExcept for all these burning gas and oil fields.
- orwin 7mo agoIf you break the rig on a mature oil deposit, there is a chance you will make the remaining petroleum/gas unreachable for the foreseeable future (at least at an acceptable price point). So you reduce the total oil quantity humanity will be able to extract.
- juliusceasar 7mo ago[flagged]
- mano78 7mo agoWell... maybe... but US is backing them so... what's your point?
- juliusceasar 7mo agoPut the blame where it belongs, don't fall for the victim card of Israel. Remember why the world economics turned bad. All because of ISRAEL.
- ramon156 7mo agos/No/Yes/ s/just// They're not exclusive
- alephnerd 7mo agoMaybe the Islamic Republic shouldn't have attacked civilian assets in portions of the Gulf that are have been pro-Iran such as Qatar's ONG infra (it is QatarEnergy that has been helping Iran productionize the South Pars field since the early 1990s), Kuwait's welfare office, and the ADNOC loading dock in the Emirate of Fujairah. Sentiments have hardened amongst Khaleejis [0] who previously were open to an off-ramp. Edit: can't reply > haven't hit any schools They did in Azerbaijan [1] > apartment buildings full of civilians. Already did in Saudi [2] and similar incidents have happened in the UAE and Kuwait. > I'm confused how Qatar is pro-Iran and hosting CENTCOM, which is running the war on Iran Becuase countries are fine compartmentalizing relations. You see this in US-Turkiye-Iran, US-Qatar-Iran, Israel-India-Iran, US-Armenia-Iran, Turkiye-Azerbaijan-Israel, and other relationships. In Qatar's case, Al Udeid only opened in 1996, but it was Iran that averted a coup d'état in Qatar in 1996 [3], collaborated with Qatar on supporting Hamas [4] and the Houthis [5], and Qatar became Iran's primary financial conduit abroad via agreements in 2017 [6][7] and 2023 [8]. By allowing the US to base in Al Udeid from 1996 and working with ExxonMobil on LNG exports, Qatar was able to incentivize the US to allow it's continued relationship with Iran. The world isn't a game of Civ where you are either an ally or an enemy. The reality is countries compartmentalize relations, and when compartmentalization is broken, trust is broken as well. For Gulf states like Qatar, they took a massive gamble doubling down on building a relationship with Iran - heck, Saudi Arabia-UAE-Egypt almost invaded Qatar due to these ties until Rex Tillerson stopped them [9] becuase the QatarEnergy-Exxon deal was his baby. Now that Iran is striking Qatar, decades of risk taking was essentially all for naught, and Sheikh Tamim entire foreign policy and economic strategy is now in question internally because he staked his entire legacy on Iran-Qatar normalization in order to carve strategic autonomy from Saudi or the UAE. The Gulf is very small - it's all the same people who went to the same colleges, worked for the same companies, and now work for the same ministries, so once reputations stick, they really stick and your only choice is to leave. [0] - https://xcancel.com/MofaQatar_EN/status/2034517464940159428#m https://xcancel.com/MofaQatar_EN/status/2034517464940159428#... [1] - https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/06/aliyev-vows-attacks-on-azerbaijan-will-face-our-iron-fist-after-iran-drone-strike https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/06/aliyev-vows-attacks-on-a... [2] - https://tribune.com.pk/story/2596430/israel-launches-fresh-attacks-on-iran-as-trump-raises-prospect-of-killing-all-its-potential-leaders https://tribune.com.pk/story/2596430/israel-launches-fresh-a... [3] - https://www.danielpipes.org/6317/hamad-bin-jasim-bin-jabr-al-thani https://www.danielpipes.org/6317/hamad-bin-jasim-bin-jabr-al... [4] - https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-hamas/a-57537872 https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-hamas/a-57537872 [5] - https://sites.bu.edu/pardeeatlas/research-and-policy/back2school/the-qatar-crisis-beyond-the-qatar-iran-terrorism-framework/ https://sites.bu.edu/pardeeatlas/research-and-policy/back2sc... [6] - https://ifpnews.com/iran-qatar-boost-banking-relations/ https://ifpnews.com/iran-qatar-boost-banking-relations/ [7] - https://www.arabnews.com/node/1331176/business-economy https://www.arabnews.com/node/1331176/business-economy [8] - https://en.irna.ir/amp/85241114/ https://en.irna.ir/amp/85241114/ [9] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/8/1/rex-tillerson-stopped-saudi-and-uae-from-attacking-qatar https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/8/1/rex-tillerson-stoppe...
- TrackerFF 7mo agoSome airlines are cancelling flights left and right, others are jacking up the prices. If the war keeps going on into the summer, there's going to be some very obvious consumer-facing issues. From gas prices, very expensive travel, price hikes in logistics, you name it.
- derf_ 7mo agoI think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.
- general1465 7mo agoOr even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...
- mattmaroon 7mo ago2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.
- solstice 7mo agoIs there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that: - storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full - mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs? And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?
- toomuchtodo 7mo agoRestarting Fieldwide Shutdown for Middle East Oil and Gas Producers is Not Easy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47443238 - March 2026 is a resource I found helpful.
- jvpr94 7mo agoAlready feeling this even in Brazil... Right when we got inflation under control for a couple of years.
- Jordanpomeroy 7mo agoYou got inflation under control? Must be nice…
- longislandguido 7mo agoI thought you run your favela-rovers on sugarcane gasohol?
- jeffbee 7mo agoAfter thinking it over I'm on the side of the people of Iran. Why aren't they blowing up refineries in Corpus Christi, Texas?
- johsole 7mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- Argonaut998 7mo agoI’m probably missing some subtext or sarcasm here but because they don’t have ICBMs to reach the US?
- clydethefrog 7mo agoThey could stage a "Operation Spiderweb" inspired attack [0], but this seems highly unlikely with the current powerful surveillance state of the USA. I once read a wild theory that some Mexican cartels might be able to, since they have access to military hardware too nowadays. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb
- srean 7mo agoEven if they could I don't think they would. It is not in their interest. Their target selection does make sense from their point of view and it has been a restrained and capability constrained tit for tat. For now all they seem to want is to have a financially viable future as an independent country, not as anybody's vassal, not as a country for other superpowers to play games for geopolitical reasons. Essentially to control their own destiny. That was scuttled in 1953. Their civilian aircraft was shot down without apology. Saddam Hussein was foisted against them. They pulled through 8 years of wars that saw attacks with chemical weapons to which they lost several tens of thousands lives. If they do not like the people who have messed with them, I cannot say that their feelings are unjustified. I am not even Iranian.
- 7mo ago
- pphysch 7mo agoThe buried lede: Israel did an unprovoked attack on Pars and Iran immediately retaliated by attacking QatarEnergy, which has major LNG partnerships with US oil companies.
- emptyfile 7mo ago[dead]
- lokar 7mo agoAnd it's important to not that until that point, both the US and Israel had not been attacking any of the Iranian production and export infrastructure, only some depots (and refineries?) for domestic use.
- ikr678 7mo agoThey wanted to take them over.
- yyyk 7mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- pphysch 7mo agoA basic chronological analysis makes it abundantly clear who is provoking and who is retaliating in each of these situations (none of which are located in Israel, by the way).
- anonymous344 7mo agoremember your paper straws to save the planet
- emptyfile 7mo ago[dead]
- longislandguido 7mo ago[flagged]
- lokar 7mo agoThe current price for crude oil does not correctly price in either: - things end in the next 2-3 weeks and then get back to normal - this goes on past 6-8 weeks, and stockpiles run out The first would argue for a modest price increase, the second a somewhat unpredictable, but very severe price increase with hard to understand second order impacts. So, the price is some weighted version of these two, based on traders estimates of what is most likely. And of course, these estimates can change quickly as events unfold, which is why the price can move so fast, despite no immediate impact to supply "on the ground".
- lolc 7mo agoWhoa hold your brush. US admin agency over wars that affect oil prices was very different in 2022 compared to 2026.
- y-c-o-m-b 7mo agoIIRC the cost of gas during the Biden era were driven largely by factors outside of our control - the pandemic, supply issues, Russia invading Ukraine, etc. This is a war of choice directly caused by the very deliberate actions we took in the middle east. There is a very clear cause and effect to point to here, much like the Iraq war in the early 2000s raising gas prices.
- fogzen 7mo agoGood. I hope gas becomes so unaffordable the US economy collapses. Maybe they'll lose some weight and it'll improve the healthcare situation.
- izzydata 7mo agoIt seems highly unlikely that the US will magically have trains and more walk-able living because gas is unaffordable. Especially if it was a drastic and sudden shock of supply. Myself as much as anyone is not in favor of the reliance the US has on cars and non-renewable energy, but causing chaos is not the way to do it.
- pasquinelli 7mo agoi think they're saying the situation then would be such that americans won't be able to eat so much. that might shock your sensibilities, but remember that thousands of iranian civilians have been indiscriminately murdered these last couple weeks, by america.
- alexgieg 7mo agoThis is an interesting point. Supposing this sudden shock happens, wouldn't American towns, counties, and the like, run to buy buses and start providing emergency bus services all around to all those suburban areas where people couldn't afford gas anymore? Or at least, this is how I imagine a sane response would be. There'd be a shortage of buses at first, but I also suppose it'd relatively easy to adapt current North American car manufacturing plants to start manufacturing buses. But that's just an uninformed guess. Am I too much off base in this?
- Zigurd 7mo agoYou were right in broad strokes, but buses are too much like collective action for the taste of Americans. The most optimistic outcome I can think of is that people start buying large quantities of E bikes and pressure their towns to use all that space in their stroads to accommodate bike lanes.
- 7mo ago
- Havoc 7mo agoHave seen social media chatter of isolated shortages in two countries already. Hard to tell whether that’s just background noise that is just getting more airtime play thanks to Iran or whether it’s the first sign of bigger trouble.
- JohnMakin 7mo agoso much winning, you're gonna get sick of winning
- bambax 7mo ago> after Iran and Israel attack gasfields After Israel attacked gasfields and Iran retaliated. Iran didn't start any of this.
- srean 7mo agoWish this comment could be pinned.
- throwaway2109 7mo ago[flagged]
- srean 7mo agoCounterfactuals are hard to estimate but had the US and Britain not engineered a coup in 1953 to grab their oil they might have had friendly relations with US and its allies today. Don't discount that the US foisted Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons on Iran's population. They lost some 20 to 30 thousand civilians to chemical weapons attacks. Yet never once counterattacked with chemical weapons. The assassinated Khamenei even had a fatwa declaring weapons of mass destruction to be un-Islamic. No one is innocent in this world, but I can certainly understand why Iran feels the way it does and I find it justified, in the sense had I been born there I probably would feel the same way. Recall Iran was the only middle-eastern country that supported the UN resolution forming the state of Israel. US interference left them with a bad taste in their mouth. No wonder they do not like the US and their partners in geopolitical resource grabs.
- mdni007 7mo agoWhat is your source for saying they are funding attacks? I know people on HN aren't stupid enough to fully believe everything Isreali and American media tells them so what's your source?
- srean 7mo agoIf he was serious about tracing the roots of terrorism he would have landed up with Saudi money and Pakistani training. Those two are the major powerhouses of terrorism. Citizens of the US and its vassal states are quick to ignore that. Most are too lazy to exercise critical thinking.
- igravious 7mo ago“Oil and gas prices jump after US-proxy Israel attacks Iranian gasfield infrastructure, and after Iran responds in kind after having promised to do so.” is a headline that reflects reality and doesn't finesse the details -- I should really become a headline writer, I'm clearly better than whoever is employed by The Guardian. At the very least it should be "Oil and gas prices jump after Israel and then Iran attack gasfields" Putting Iran first might lead some to believe this was Iran-initiated, which of course is probably the intention.
- pasquinelli 7mo agois israel a US proxy? that's feeling a little backward right now.
- senectus1 7mo agoall proxies do this eventually. no one ever seems to learn, you use a proxy to do dodgy shit for you and eventually they become the tail that wags the dog. made worse in this case by the fact that trump is a weak leader and Netanyahu is not.
- pzo 7mo agoI don't get why the prices jumped so much - looks like panic and hoarding because: - The Middle East produces roughly 30% of the world's oil - But about 20% of total global oil consumption flows through this strait (less than 30% because of of domestic consumption and some pipelines avoiding strait) I would understand if prices increases e.g. 50% but like more than 100% seems like a panic or manipulation
- lokar 7mo agoIt would make sense if there was mostly inelastic demand for 80% of current production. I'm not sure if that is the case, but it might be. There is a lot of usage with no good substitute.
- tencentshill 7mo agoI had this thought as well. But oil prices are set globally on the exchanges, even oil that never leaves the US is affected.
- alexgieg 7mo agoOil demand is mostly inelastic. No matter how much or how little is produced, those who need it NEED it, so they'll compete with all others who similarly need it. The richest ones from among them get the oil first, and the poorest get nothing. The end price ends up being a function of how much oil is available versus how much the richest countries' absolutely irreducibly need for oil is versus how much wealth those countries can throw at the problem not to be left without before someone else with deeper pockets gets it.
- orwin 7mo agoAlso, a third order effect of oil inelasticity is that if it cost too much , it decrease production and trade (might be less true now, but it was absolutely true in 2010), it lowers global demand, so the prices go down. Which is why markets can't predict oil prices, not really.
- frankharv 7mo agoI agree. Why is domestic oil linked to global oil price? We are energy independent? Big Oil is milking US.
- zenethian 7mo agoTime to get out our “I did that” stickers, right?
- Shitty-kitty 7mo agoIf they really are trying to provoke a revolt in Iran this was about the stupidest thing you could do. Over 800 million Iranians rely on gas for cooking and heating. Before you joke about heating in a desert. Sand radiates heat incredibly fast, nights can get below freezing in some parts of Iran.
- mikewarot 7mo agoIt will probably go back up to about 5 grams of Gold per barrel, which was the past peak, and hold there. More troubling if you're paid in dollars, the end of the Petrodollar is likely now on a very accelerated timeline. Based on history, I expect a 60-80% drop in our standard of living when that happens.
- joquarky 7mo agoOn top of the drop from the past 10 years?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- burnt-resistor 7mo agoStockpile (some) gasoline now because retail price shocks haven't hit yet because it takes time to ripple through the supply chain and commodity market-goods delivery price differential is in flux until supplies dry up. Supply impairments will last 1-2 years because around a dozen billion-dollar petrochem facilities have been physically destroyed and will need to be manufactured again in distant lands like Italy.