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The strait of Hormuz blockade will strangle US defense industry
- pjc50 7mo ago> "knock-on effect of this war is that it may cost double or more than double to replace all these weapons because all the mineral demand is going to go way up It's a lazy assumption that the motivation for war is profit, but in this case ...
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- echoangle 7mo agoHow much would material prices have to increase that replacement cost doubles? The main factor in weapon prices is development cost and manufacturing, not the raw materials, right?
- ImPostingOnHN 7mo ago> The main factor in weapon prices is development cost and manufacturing Close: the main factor in weapon costs is development. The main factor in prices depends on how many are manufactured, what sort of maintenance there will be (huge business), how much profit the defense contracting corporation wants to make, etc. For example, now that the Patriot missile is already developed, each new one made and sold for millions will have a gross profit. If you can say "material prices increased (unsaid: "by 20%, etc") so we need to double the price", and the buyer is motivated (started a war and exhausted their previous supply), and also they are already locked into your ecosystem, then that is a win for you in even more ways. If you are money-friends with the head of the military, and they are infamous for corruption, violating laws and regulations, not caring about the cost of things they spend government money on, and gifting government favors to their money-friends, then you are golden.
- imjonse 7mo agowhat other assumptions sound more reasonable?
- DivingForGold 7mo agoDon't know how much sulfur the DOD and industry needs, but I have personally seen the "sulfur pits" pretty full at the Valero refinery in Corpus Christi . . .
- jmstfv 7mo agothe closure of the strait (i.e. a toll booth by Iran) will cause massive inflation, destroy the GCC, and eventually lead to a global recession and the end of a petrodollar, which is how Iran is retaliating. And if the US attempts a ground invasion to keep the strait open, it will be a complete disaster for the US.
- andyjohnson0 7mo agoGCC == Gulf Cooperation Council?
- nxpnsv 7mo agoI hope it is not the gnu compiler..
- jmstfv 7mo agoyes. they export oil/LNG and import most of their food. and they invest their proceeds into the US economy/treasuries, which they're going to stop if this continues. by some estimates, Qatar and Kuwait could experience ~14% GDP contraction this year if this goes on.
- redwood 7mo agoEveryone's an expert 19 days into a conflict that was absolutely foreseen in comprehensive United States military planning. People need to have some patience. What's clear is it the way this is being executed is a complete reboot of how prior Middle East conflicts were executed which suggests major ownership of prior problems and learnings applied
- d3ckard 7mo agoYes, especially murdering a school full of girls during the first days seems like a perfect example of extensive planning and preparation.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- pearlsontheroad 7mo agoIt should be investigated as a war crime.
- redwood 7mo agoHas anyone ever claimed that wars don't involve mistakes. That wars are not hell, that wars are somehow a good phenomenon associated with the human species? But has anyone not naive argued that wars are not sometimes necessary to achieve objectives? I genuinely wonder what point you have here other than to remind us of these fundamental human truths. And if so thank you. But I would ask you what would you be doing if you were making the policy decision?
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- d3ckard 7mo agoHow about not starting a war? Especially as a sudden attack during negotiations? With a country that has been historically bending backwards to find some kind of diplomatic solution? And since when murdering the leaders repeatedly is a valid war strategy? Not even mentioning that Chamenei was killed together with a daughter, son in law and a grandson. But who cares about accidental casualties, right? Just one more kid.
- kvuj 7mo ago> “We don’t know who their vendors are,” he said, adding that beyond a few steps in long chains of subcontractors, “nobody actually knows who’s providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze.” So how can you predict the impact on the US defense industry? How can you predict it will be strangled? What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains...
- baal80spam 7mo ago> What the hell is this shitty article that doesn't use a single hard number? No graphs, no prediction based on previous wars, no investigative dig into the supply chains... That's The Guardian for you, sir.
- softwaredoug 7mo agoI’ve seen a lot of subreddits devolve into posting political rage bait articles plastered with ads and very little substance. I hope that doesn’t happen here.
- defrost 7mo agoIt's more or less a near direct do over of the original source from Westpoint Military Academy. The Chokepoint We Missed: Sulfur, Hormuz, and the Threats to Military Readiness https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-chokepoint-we-missed-sulfur-hormuz-and-the-threats-to-military-readiness/ https://mwi.westpoint.edu/the-chokepoint-we-missed-sulfur-ho... It's reasonable to assume that a fuller version exists in which Morgan D. Bazilian and Macdonald Amoah lay out the background data which Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek et al have seen. Morgan D. Bazilian is the director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy and professor at the Colorado School of Mines, with over thirty years of experience in global energy policy and investment. A former World Bank lead energy specialist and senior diplomat at the UN, he has held roles in the Irish government and advisory positions with the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency. A Fulbright fellow, he has published widely on energy security and international affairs. Macdonald Amoah is an independent researcher with interests across critical mineral supply chains, advanced manufacturing gaps, the industrial base, and geopolitical risks in the mining sector. Lt. Col. Jahara “Franky” Matisek (PhD) is a US Air Force command pilot, nonresident research fellow at the US Naval War College, and senior fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy, and a visiting scholar at Northwestern University. He is the most published active duty officer currently serving, with over 150 articles on industrial base issues, strategy, and warfare.
- yabones 7mo agoIt's kind of funny how the US military, the largest single consumer of fossil fuels on the planet, didn't consider that disrupting the largest source of fossil fuels would impact them.
- softwaredoug 7mo agoThey of course considered it. It’s the civilians at the top that did not.
- selectodude 7mo agoThey demoted or fired all the people in the room who would raise a concern for being gay and woke.
- nfornowledge 7mo agoYep. This is a nationalist christian war. We all feel for Bibi getting roped into this. Thank goodness the marines have his blessing.
- franktankbank 7mo agoDoes it consume oil flowing through the strait?
- piva00 7mo agoDoes it matter when oil is a global commodity? Countries reliant on oil coming through the strait will have to find other sources, pushing prices up, unless the USA implements price and export controls on producers in its own soil that will reflect in the USA's economy which is very reliant on oil.
- pan69 7mo agoUnfortunately you're flawed to think that rational and evidence based thinking plays a role in the final decision making.
- jameskilton 7mo ago> only 6% of US defense contractors have fully transparent supply chains The Industrial-Military complex and the constant fight against Right-to-Repair is finally biting us in the ass. It remains to be seen if we will learn anything from this disaster.
- shin_lao 7mo agoYou will always find a report that goes in the way of the narrative you want to push. The goal of these reports is to poke holes and build scenarios. It doesn't mean it's going to happen. This article elevates a niche bottleneck into a headline risk. - Sulfur matters but we have many substitutes, stockpiles, and alternative supply chains. - 20% of global oil passes through it, but the US doesn't depend on it, will hurt China disproportionally more. While oil is globally priced, it has different benchmarks. - The "6% traceability" stat likely reflects formal mapping, not actual operational ignorance.
- maxglute 7mo agoMeanwhile MENA oil continues to flow to PRC, so it doesn't hurt PRC more. High oil prices hurt US disproportionately more for the simple reason oil is higher % of US energy mix (~40% US vs 20% for PRC), and due to refinery mismatch, US not oil independent and needs to pay spot for imports, i.e. Canadian crude. It also it hurts US productive partners more by inflating input prices, which PRC circumvents with continued cheap RU energy and more significantly coal to petchem stacks that makes PRC coal much cheaper industrial input than oil after $70/80 barrels, lower than every oil benchmark. Like huge segments of PRC industry literally just gained 20-30% and growing discount on inputs vs essentially every other industrial power that relies on crude for inputs, i.e. basically everyone else without PRC's contingency coal stack got considerably more fucked than PRC. Until even greater disruption that meaningful takes barrels from PRC to the point of degrading mainland, i.e. after SPR runs dry, PRC suffers significantly less than US while gaining more industrial competitiveness. But, at current level of disruption, i.e. still relatively lack of, PRC wins on essentially every domain.