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Survivorship bias. For every success you describe there are nine or so failures. Skill being involved doesn’t exclude being lucky, and I believe being lucky (so
by techpression 7mo ago
Survivorship bias. For every success you describe there are nine or so failures.
Skill being involved doesn’t exclude being lucky, and I believe being lucky (some people call it timing) is of utmost importance.
- pinkmuffinere 7mo agoYa, I respect this view. It is not the view I have, but I understand how you can have it. Eg, this is how I feel about most famous portfolio managers. Really my comment is addressed to the other view -- if it _isn't_ luck, then I think we should put some weight in what the successful practitioners say, and the ones I've heard do endorse the lean startup & co.
- apsurd 7mo agoBut it doesn't make the survivors wrong about their experience. Two truths: their experience did happen roughly how they said it happened + they got very lucky. Seems like all the other 9 that died insist on telling the one that survived that they were somehow wrong. For sure, I do get that one can "do everything right" and still fail, I get that point, I get that there is no formula. But it seems like people want the reverse to be true: that everyone successful is only a lucky buffoon.
- techpression 7mo agoSure, but I like it to my military service, I remember the good parts only, unless I start digging. Nobody wants to read about normal life, either you claim success or you claim failure, in between sells no copies.