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> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you do

> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you don't really specify why in your post. Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I'd bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months. There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% float) if you are worried about not enough buyers.

cik 7mo ago
100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly. I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations. I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don't forget institutional. There's ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are probably coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.
- cgg23 7mo ago
  THere's interest to hold it for diversification reasons but the reality is investors are not stupid. Look at the basket-case recent IPOs: Figma and Klarna. Many are skeptical of LLMs and how large of an impact they will have in the long-term. Nvidia's stock performance YTD is an example of that, despite the good news being pushed forward. People want to start seeing customers of OAI, Nvidia et al start generating incremental accounting profits from LLM-specific projects, let alone economic profits.
financetechbro 7mo ago
I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA” On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.
- chollida1 7mo ago
  Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:) > On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus. Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count. And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters. You go public when you get the chance. I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!
  - financetechbro 7mo ago
    Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?
    - chollida1 7mo ago
      Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge. Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.
      - financetechbro 7mo ago
        Ah understood. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out… OAI needs money one way or another. Thanks for the discourse
- freetanga 7mo ago
  Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out. “Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.
mattfrommars 7mo ago
Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation. OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready! My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.
smcin 7mo ago
Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common). https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by
- throwaway27448 7mo ago
  What is this supposed to imply? You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Well, I suppose you can draw the conclusion that "polymarket customers are interested in this topic"
  - smcin 7mo ago
    That Polymarket traders believe an OpenAI IPO this quarter, or even this year, is unlikely (or else almost all of them are hedging, e.g. long on other AI stocks. Which seems unlikely.) Anyone who thinks that position is wrong and it's >4% likely has a clear profit opportunity.
    - edgyquant 7mo ago
      Not everyone is a degenerate gambler
      - some_random 7mo ago
        How many degenerate gamblers do you need before it stops being a useful tool?
  - lelanthran 7mo ago
    > What is this supposed to imply? Wisdom of the crowd, same as guessing jellybeans in a jar. The exact average is wrong, but it's still pretty damn close because the guesses are likely to follow a normal distribution. If the hump of the normal distribution of these guesses is around 4% (or whatever) odds on, the actual answer is unlikely to be far from that. > You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Irrelevant; Polymarket is the reflection of the bettors view. When they place their bets, they don't care which way this goes, they only care to predict the direction correctly. Unfortunately, it could be a case of the tail wagging the dog - even if the IPO would have been successful without polymarket existing, now that they have a signal from polymarket it is likely to be used as one of the weightings when they determine the correct time to IPO.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
bandrami 7mo ago
There's a lot of reasons you don't want to IPO in the near- to mid-term, many based on energy suddenly being a lot more expensive than everybody thought and others based on money being a lot more expensive than everybody thought (and lenders being more risk-avers). All three of these things kind of go together.
redanddead 7mo ago
yeah, just fud bc fud. I've seen this movie before

cik 7mo ago

100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly. I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations. I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don't forget institutional. There's ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are probably coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.

cgg23 7mo ago
THere's interest to hold it for diversification reasons but the reality is investors are not stupid. Look at the basket-case recent IPOs: Figma and Klarna. Many are skeptical of LLMs and how large of an impact they will have in the long-term. Nvidia's stock performance YTD is an example of that, despite the good news being pushed forward. People want to start seeing customers of OAI, Nvidia et al start generating incremental accounting profits from LLM-specific projects, let alone economic profits.

financetechbro 7mo ago

I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA” On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.

chollida1 7mo ago
Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:) > On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus. Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count. And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters. You go public when you get the chance. I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!
- financetechbro 7mo ago
  Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?
  - chollida1 7mo ago
    Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge. Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.
    - financetechbro 7mo ago
      Ah understood. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out… OAI needs money one way or another. Thanks for the discourse
freetanga 7mo ago
Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out. “Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.

mattfrommars 7mo ago

Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation. OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready! My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.

smcin 7mo ago

Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common). https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

throwaway27448 7mo ago
What is this supposed to imply? You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Well, I suppose you can draw the conclusion that "polymarket customers are interested in this topic"
- smcin 7mo ago
  That Polymarket traders believe an OpenAI IPO this quarter, or even this year, is unlikely (or else almost all of them are hedging, e.g. long on other AI stocks. Which seems unlikely.) Anyone who thinks that position is wrong and it's >4% likely has a clear profit opportunity.
  - edgyquant 7mo ago
    Not everyone is a degenerate gambler
    - some_random 7mo ago
      How many degenerate gamblers do you need before it stops being a useful tool?
- lelanthran 7mo ago
  > What is this supposed to imply? Wisdom of the crowd, same as guessing jellybeans in a jar. The exact average is wrong, but it's still pretty damn close because the guesses are likely to follow a normal distribution. If the hump of the normal distribution of these guesses is around 4% (or whatever) odds on, the actual answer is unlikely to be far from that. > You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why. Irrelevant; Polymarket is the reflection of the bettors view. When they place their bets, they don't care which way this goes, they only care to predict the direction correctly. Unfortunately, it could be a case of the tail wagging the dog - even if the IPO would have been successful without polymarket existing, now that they have a signal from polymarket it is likely to be used as one of the weightings when they determine the correct time to IPO.

deleted 7mo ago

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bandrami 7mo ago

There's a lot of reasons you don't want to IPO in the near- to mid-term, many based on energy suddenly being a lot more expensive than everybody thought and others based on money being a lot more expensive than everybody thought (and lenders being more risk-avers). All three of these things kind of go together.

redanddead 7mo ago

yeah, just fud bc fud. I've seen this movie before