5 ms·

if you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say

scoofy 7mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness
- Dylan16807 7mo ago
  Predicting real events is significantly random which makes it like gambling, but the ability to influence events makes it unlike gambling. Just calling it gambling emphasizes the former problem while dismissing the latter problem.
  - fsckboy 7mo ago
    any game with a positive expected value is also not gambling, it's mining
    - scoofy 7mo ago
      Any system that is a zero-sum game with an effectively uncertain outcome is effectively gambling. Investing at least positive sum in theory. Prediction markets are not.
      - Dylan16807 7mo ago
        When you say "effectively uncertain outcome", do you include situations where the events are random but the odds are predictable? Let me give you an example. On average, there are 14 storms big enough to be named in the 6 month long Atlantic hurricane season. If a prediction market was saying 30% odds of a storm big enough to be named every day for all 183 days, betting against that would be free money. Would you call it gambling to make the same bet on all 183 days? The day-by-day outcome is uncertain, but the overall outcome is extremely certain.
        scoofy 7mo ago
        Yes, I would call it gambling simply because someone has to take the other side of the bet and lose. The entire point of there being a gambling "line" is because two parties have to agree on a wager that they both think has positive EV. That's effectively gambling. Somebody has to lose for the other party to win. Obviously if the counter-party is an institution with a legitimate need to hedge, it becomes an insurance policy, but that is a world of difference than just two counterparties wanting to make bets for fun.
        Dylan16807 7mo ago
        I think you're close to a good metric, but you need to consider the situations where one person doesn't have a positive EV expectation, or where that expectation is provably wrong. I think those situations can empower a winning non-gambling actor. One participant in a market can be gambling while another participant isn't gambling. In particular, casinos don't gamble. Also for many things there exists a scale from fully random to fully skill-based. So in my opinion things can be semi-gambling with a lot of gray area.
        scoofy 7mo ago
        > In particular, casinos don't gamble. I completely agree. I'm not trying to equate "casino gambling" to "gambling." Casino gambling is trivially stupid and should basically be illegal for large sums of money (again > $100 in expected losses/hour). I still think "gambling" is also bad for society, and I especially think it's bad when the payout structure is bar-belled where a lifetime gambling can somehow convince gamblers that they are "due." >you need to consider the situations where one person doesn't have a positive EV expectation, or where that expectation is provably wrong. I mean, this is de facto a discussion of the past. My point about "prediction market" is that their externalities start to spiral rapidly. Market reflexivity, where the gamblers starts effecting the outcome, or at least the oracle, is a very obvious and predictable result such that it's literally cliche to talk about athletes taking a dive for the money. When it's sports, it's not really a huge deal because -- outside of gambling spaces -- we are ultimately just talking about entertainment. The problem with prediction market gambling, is that it starts affecting peoples lives. The price of oil, the leaders of countries, the results of elections. When you create legal avenues that incentivize organized crime to manipulate the outcome to future events, you've basically created a machine that fights back against pro-social, cooperative outcomes in politics and the economy that everyone benefits from. It's a horrible idea.
fc417fc802 7mo ago
I can tell the difference (at least I think) but I have no idea what your point is.
- Invictus0 7mo ago
  prediction markets are not pure gambling just as investing in stocks is not gambling.
  - fc417fc802 7mo ago
    I don't follow. What's the definition of "pure" gambling here? Do you consider for example poker to be pure? Sports betting? Personally I consider any monetary wager where the individual isn't personally invested in corresponding productive events to constitute gambling. By that logic poker, horse races, prediction markets, futures, and even the vast majority of day trading all constitute forms of gambling.
    - Jensson 7mo ago
      Lotteries are pure gambling because you can't influence things, I guess that is what he meant. The examples you mentioned are then "impure gambling" since its inherently possible to influence the outcome without breaking the rules. It isn't illegal to bet on a hose that you gave extra good shoes and so on.
    - Invictus0 7mo ago
      Betting on which card will be on top of a freshly shuffled deck is pure gambling. It is a game of pure chance. Betting on sports is not pure chance. If I play a game of tennis against roger federer, I am sure to lose. I can predict this event with 100% certainty. https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1773764400 https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1773764400 Bitcoin up or down is another non-chance event. I can easily sway the price of bitcoin by just buying some. Recently there was a market to predict how long the US government shutdown would last. This is not gambling--you can look at historical data of shutdown durations and form a prediction based on researching each politician's views. Sure, an idiot might gamble by just picking an option at random, but the game itself isn't gambling because it's not a game of pure chance.

scoofy 7mo ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness

Dylan16807 7mo ago
Predicting real events is significantly random which makes it like gambling, but the ability to influence events makes it unlike gambling. Just calling it gambling emphasizes the former problem while dismissing the latter problem.
- fsckboy 7mo ago
  any game with a positive expected value is also not gambling, it's mining
  - scoofy 7mo ago
    Any system that is a zero-sum game with an effectively uncertain outcome is effectively gambling. Investing at least positive sum in theory. Prediction markets are not.
    - Dylan16807 7mo ago
      When you say "effectively uncertain outcome", do you include situations where the events are random but the odds are predictable? Let me give you an example. On average, there are 14 storms big enough to be named in the 6 month long Atlantic hurricane season. If a prediction market was saying 30% odds of a storm big enough to be named every day for all 183 days, betting against that would be free money. Would you call it gambling to make the same bet on all 183 days? The day-by-day outcome is uncertain, but the overall outcome is extremely certain.
      - scoofy 7mo ago
        Yes, I would call it gambling simply because someone has to take the other side of the bet and lose. The entire point of there being a gambling "line" is because two parties have to agree on a wager that they both think has positive EV. That's effectively gambling. Somebody has to lose for the other party to win. Obviously if the counter-party is an institution with a legitimate need to hedge, it becomes an insurance policy, but that is a world of difference than just two counterparties wanting to make bets for fun.
        Dylan16807 7mo ago
        I think you're close to a good metric, but you need to consider the situations where one person doesn't have a positive EV expectation, or where that expectation is provably wrong. I think those situations can empower a winning non-gambling actor. One participant in a market can be gambling while another participant isn't gambling. In particular, casinos don't gamble. Also for many things there exists a scale from fully random to fully skill-based. So in my opinion things can be semi-gambling with a lot of gray area.
        scoofy 7mo ago
        > In particular, casinos don't gamble. I completely agree. I'm not trying to equate "casino gambling" to "gambling." Casino gambling is trivially stupid and should basically be illegal for large sums of money (again > $100 in expected losses/hour). I still think "gambling" is also bad for society, and I especially think it's bad when the payout structure is bar-belled where a lifetime gambling can somehow convince gamblers that they are "due." >you need to consider the situations where one person doesn't have a positive EV expectation, or where that expectation is provably wrong. I mean, this is de facto a discussion of the past. My point about "prediction market" is that their externalities start to spiral rapidly. Market reflexivity, where the gamblers starts effecting the outcome, or at least the oracle, is a very obvious and predictable result such that it's literally cliche to talk about athletes taking a dive for the money. When it's sports, it's not really a huge deal because -- outside of gambling spaces -- we are ultimately just talking about entertainment. The problem with prediction market gambling, is that it starts affecting peoples lives. The price of oil, the leaders of countries, the results of elections. When you create legal avenues that incentivize organized crime to manipulate the outcome to future events, you've basically created a machine that fights back against pro-social, cooperative outcomes in politics and the economy that everyone benefits from. It's a horrible idea.

fc417fc802 7mo ago

I can tell the difference (at least I think) but I have no idea what your point is.

Invictus0 7mo ago
prediction markets are not pure gambling just as investing in stocks is not gambling.
- fc417fc802 7mo ago
  I don't follow. What's the definition of "pure" gambling here? Do you consider for example poker to be pure? Sports betting? Personally I consider any monetary wager where the individual isn't personally invested in corresponding productive events to constitute gambling. By that logic poker, horse races, prediction markets, futures, and even the vast majority of day trading all constitute forms of gambling.
  - Jensson 7mo ago
    Lotteries are pure gambling because you can't influence things, I guess that is what he meant. The examples you mentioned are then "impure gambling" since its inherently possible to influence the outcome without breaking the rules. It isn't illegal to bet on a hose that you gave extra good shoes and so on.
  - Invictus0 7mo ago
    Betting on which card will be on top of a freshly shuffled deck is pure gambling. It is a game of pure chance. Betting on sports is not pure chance. If I play a game of tennis against roger federer, I am sure to lose. I can predict this event with 100% certainty. https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1773764400 https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-5m-1773764400 Bitcoin up or down is another non-chance event. I can easily sway the price of bitcoin by just buying some. Recently there was a market to predict how long the US government shutdown would last. This is not gambling--you can look at historical data of shutdown durations and form a prediction based on researching each politician's views. Sure, an idiot might gamble by just picking an option at random, but the game itself isn't gambling because it's not a game of pure chance.