3 ms·
>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling
by scoofy 7mo ago
>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity.
Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling incentivizes the absolute worst in humanity.
- fritzo 7mo agoWe're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. We're talking about gambling as big players paying participants to throw fights, paying referees to call shots, and the players are the real world and the referees are journalists.
- scoofy 7mo agoI agree.
- fritzo 7mo agoJust checking :) Didn't want to confuse two totally different equally compelling reasons to ban prediction markets
- trashb 7mo ago> We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. What makes you think this is not "gambling-as-addiction"? It seems to me that these players, big or small, either have too much skin in the game or are compulsive gambling. To me the threats only make sense in that context.
- Invictus0 7mo agoThat's fundamentally wrong
- scoofy 7mo ago>That's fundamentally wrong If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.
- Invictus0 7mo agoif you can't tell the difference between a game of pure chance and predicting real world events then there is simply nothing to say
- scoofy 7mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness
- Dylan16807 7mo agoPredicting real events is significantly random which makes it like gambling, but the ability to influence events makes it unlike gambling. Just calling it gambling emphasizes the former problem while dismissing the latter problem.
- fsckboy 7mo agoany game with a positive expected value is also not gambling, it's mining
- scoofy 7mo agoAny system that is a zero-sum game with an effectively uncertain outcome is effectively gambling. Investing at least positive sum in theory. Prediction markets are not.
- Dylan16807 7mo agoWhen you say "effectively uncertain outcome", do you include situations where the events are random but the odds are predictable? Let me give you an example. On average, there are 14 storms big enough to be named in the 6 month long Atlantic hurricane season. If a prediction market was saying 30% odds of a storm big enough to be named every day for all 183 days, betting against that would be free money. Would you call it gambling to make the same bet on all 183 days? The day-by-day outcome is uncertain, but the overall outcome is extremely certain.
- arcticfox 7mo agoI used to be pro-betting legalization and now I see the light. It is a corrosive influence On everything it touches. I hope there's another opportunity to put the genie back in the bottle.
- cybernoodles 7mo agoI feel like we need a new word for this because it is far worse than gambling when you can effectively put a hit on someone.