4 ms·

I think time and time again that incentives are most important in determining how a market and by extension a society behaves. These prediction markets incentiv

I think time and time again that incentives are most important in determining how a market and by extension a society behaves. These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. These markets allow you to bet on when the invasion of a foreign country or the demise of a person happens. There comes a point where one bets against someone to die and you will see themselves incentivized to make that happen.

bagacrap 7mo ago
Technically you can't bet on the demise of a person, at least in the US, as participants recently discovered when the previous supreme leader of Iran was killed and their "leadership change" bet did not pay out.
- thrance 7mo ago
  There are bets like "X out of function by april" which are functionally equivalent to betting on their demise.
- ptsneves 7mo ago
  This is true for Kalshi but not for Polymarket. Also Kalshi voided the bet and it got sued. By the way prediction markets are commodity securities where Matt Levine mentioned it should not allow death contracts. Here we are though..
- loeg 7mo ago
  Kalshi doesn't pay out for demise of a person (though, arguably inconsistently[1]); Polymarket does (probably in violation of US regulation, but there are no rules anymore). [1]: For example, they did pay out on a bet over whether Jimmy Carter would attend Trump's 2025 inauguration; he didn't, at least in part because he was dead.
  - fer 7mo ago
    Polymarket doesn't operate in the US. https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock
    - loeg 7mo ago
      Polymarket is headquartered in NYC; it's a US company; it has many US customers, and it knows that, even if it did a wink-wink dance "disallowing" that prior to 2024. Since then, it has explicitly expanded into the US market[1]. It is unambiguously subject to US regulations (if we had a regulator who chose to enforce those regulations). [1]: "Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The acquisition allowed Polymarket to legally operate within the United States under regulatory compliance. The company received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025 and began actively expanding in the United States market." https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarket-us https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarke... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives-cftc-approval-of-amended-order-of-designation-enabling-intermediated-us-market-access-302625833.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives...
      - noitpmeder 7mo ago
        As I understand it they operate as two separate entities -- polymarket US and polymarket INTL.
        newswasboring 7mo ago
        Yeah but we can see right through all that lawyer bullshit right? Gambling markets like polymarket are morally corrupt and we having given them too much space in our society already.
        Dylan16807 7mo ago
        That particular part isn't lawyer bullshit. They're beta testing a completely separate system that runs under US regulations. It looks like it'll be legal in a non-bullshit way. Moral issues are a different topic, and weak geoblocking on the international version is another different topic.
scoofy 7mo ago
>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling incentivizes the absolute worst in humanity.
- fritzo 7mo ago
  We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. We're talking about gambling as big players paying participants to throw fights, paying referees to call shots, and the players are the real world and the referees are journalists.
  - scoofy 7mo ago
    I agree.
    - fritzo 7mo ago
      Just checking :) Didn't want to confuse two totally different equally compelling reasons to ban prediction markets
  - trashb 7mo ago
    > We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. What makes you think this is not "gambling-as-addiction"? It seems to me that these players, big or small, either have too much skin in the game or are compulsive gambling. To me the threats only make sense in that context.
- Invictus0 7mo ago
  That's fundamentally wrong
  - scoofy 7mo ago
    >That's fundamentally wrong If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.
impjohn 7mo ago
Then this person better bet their entire life savings on them dying, since it would reduce incentive (profit). Crazy thought experiment, gave me lots to think about

bagacrap 7mo ago

Technically you can't bet on the demise of a person, at least in the US, as participants recently discovered when the previous supreme leader of Iran was killed and their "leadership change" bet did not pay out.

thrance 7mo ago
There are bets like "X out of function by april" which are functionally equivalent to betting on their demise.
ptsneves 7mo ago
This is true for Kalshi but not for Polymarket. Also Kalshi voided the bet and it got sued. By the way prediction markets are commodity securities where Matt Levine mentioned it should not allow death contracts. Here we are though..
loeg 7mo ago
Kalshi doesn't pay out for demise of a person (though, arguably inconsistently[1]); Polymarket does (probably in violation of US regulation, but there are no rules anymore). [1]: For example, they did pay out on a bet over whether Jimmy Carter would attend Trump's 2025 inauguration; he didn't, at least in part because he was dead.
- fer 7mo ago
  Polymarket doesn't operate in the US. https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/geoblock
  - loeg 7mo ago
    Polymarket is headquartered in NYC; it's a US company; it has many US customers, and it knows that, even if it did a wink-wink dance "disallowing" that prior to 2024. Since then, it has explicitly expanded into the US market[1]. It is unambiguously subject to US regulations (if we had a regulator who chose to enforce those regulations). [1]: "Following the end of the investigations, Polymarket announced the acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The acquisition allowed Polymarket to legally operate within the United States under regulatory compliance. The company received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC in November 2025 and began actively expanding in the United States market." https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarket-us https://www.axios.com/2025/07/21/prediction-market-polymarke... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives-cftc-approval-of-amended-order-of-designation-enabling-intermediated-us-market-access-302625833.html https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/polymarket-receives...
    - noitpmeder 7mo ago
      As I understand it they operate as two separate entities -- polymarket US and polymarket INTL.
      - newswasboring 7mo ago
        Yeah but we can see right through all that lawyer bullshit right? Gambling markets like polymarket are morally corrupt and we having given them too much space in our society already.
        Dylan16807 7mo ago
        That particular part isn't lawyer bullshit. They're beta testing a completely separate system that runs under US regulations. It looks like it'll be legal in a non-bullshit way. Moral issues are a different topic, and weak geoblocking on the international version is another different topic.

scoofy 7mo ago

>These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity. Just call it gambling. They aren't "prediction markets," they're just gambling. Gambling incentivizes the absolute worst in humanity.

fritzo 7mo ago
We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. We're talking about gambling as big players paying participants to throw fights, paying referees to call shots, and the players are the real world and the referees are journalists.
- scoofy 7mo ago
  I agree.
  - fritzo 7mo ago
    Just checking :) Didn't want to confuse two totally different equally compelling reasons to ban prediction markets
- trashb 7mo ago
  > We're not talking about gambling-as-addiction. What makes you think this is not "gambling-as-addiction"? It seems to me that these players, big or small, either have too much skin in the game or are compulsive gambling. To me the threats only make sense in that context.
Invictus0 7mo ago
That's fundamentally wrong
- scoofy 7mo ago
  >That's fundamentally wrong If you have an argument, please share it. If you don't, please don't waste everyone's time.

impjohn 7mo ago

Then this person better bet their entire life savings on them dying, since it would reduce incentive (profit). Crazy thought experiment, gave me lots to think about