4 ms·

Illegal or not, trying to ban it won't work. You'll just push it underground and it will get even worse. The cat is out of the bag.

mpalmer 7mo ago
Defeatist nonsense, and wrong. The US was regulating this until Trump. A friendly regulatory environment is the only way paying out these bets at scale is possible. "Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing.
- qsera 7mo ago
  >"Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing. But don't you think that will be the "good" majority? And the "bad" minority will continue using the underground version?
  - zbentley 7mo ago
    > the "bad" minority will continue using the underground version? …which they already did before this market was made mainstream.
  - orwin 7mo ago
    With way, way less money involved. Hence limiting the reach and power of this minority.
    - qsera 7mo ago
      Yes, makes sense. But may be there is also an upside. May be it would actually cause the people to take notice of what is going on around them and actually starting to use their brains (to make predictions) instead of simply consuming 24x7 news.
      - orwin 7mo ago
        I'd rather them playing chess or hell, Pokémon. Or reading books.
        qsera 7mo ago
        But money is a lot better motivator that is also universal.
      - mpalmer 7mo ago
        Yeah, clearly it makes you FIGHT the news
epolanski 7mo ago
You don't need to "try to ban it", you ban it. If your argument is "people are going to bet and influence world events on the dark web", the argument ignores economics. The whole point is that the wrong financial incentives exist, the dark web does not provide them, it's hard to access and liquidity is small. E.g. Trump insiders are unlikely to "tor their iran/venezuela predictions in Monero" and try to influence the events at the same time, let alone how complex would such a system be.
zbentley 7mo ago
I posted this elsewhere in this thread, but the “it’ll just go underground” claim seems silly. The negative effects of driving a gambling market to the economic fringe are already happening in the mainstream market: fixing, extortion, death threats, etc. What makes you think that driving betting underground (which means far fewer people will participate) would be worse than the status quo?

mpalmer 7mo ago

Defeatist nonsense, and wrong. The US was regulating this until Trump. A friendly regulatory environment is the only way paying out these bets at scale is possible. "Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing.

qsera 7mo ago
>"Pushing it underground" discourages the majority of bettors from using it, and that is a good thing. But don't you think that will be the "good" majority? And the "bad" minority will continue using the underground version?
- zbentley 7mo ago
  > the "bad" minority will continue using the underground version? …which they already did before this market was made mainstream.
- orwin 7mo ago
  With way, way less money involved. Hence limiting the reach and power of this minority.
  - qsera 7mo ago
    Yes, makes sense. But may be there is also an upside. May be it would actually cause the people to take notice of what is going on around them and actually starting to use their brains (to make predictions) instead of simply consuming 24x7 news.
    - orwin 7mo ago
      I'd rather them playing chess or hell, Pokémon. Or reading books.
      - qsera 7mo ago
        But money is a lot better motivator that is also universal.
    - mpalmer 7mo ago
      Yeah, clearly it makes you FIGHT the news

epolanski 7mo ago

You don't need to "try to ban it", you ban it. If your argument is "people are going to bet and influence world events on the dark web", the argument ignores economics. The whole point is that the wrong financial incentives exist, the dark web does not provide them, it's hard to access and liquidity is small. E.g. Trump insiders are unlikely to "tor their iran/venezuela predictions in Monero" and try to influence the events at the same time, let alone how complex would such a system be.

zbentley 7mo ago

I posted this elsewhere in this thread, but the “it’ll just go underground” claim seems silly. The negative effects of driving a gambling market to the economic fringe are already happening in the mainstream market: fixing, extortion, death threats, etc. What makes you think that driving betting underground (which means far fewer people will participate) would be worse than the status quo?