3 ms·

While there is a massive US advantage in space launch, it should be used to the maximum. It's not going to last forever (while perhaps, sufficiently long that C

While there is a massive US advantage in space launch, it should be used to the maximum. It's not going to last forever (while perhaps, sufficiently long that China fizzles out demographically before it's gone).

GorbachevyChase 7mo ago
To be honest, I think US demographic trends are a lot worse than whatever is going on with China.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- PeterHolzwarth 7mo ago
  Oh my goodness, this is deeply untrue. China is facing a massive population implosion. A lot of their global strategy can be understood through that lens: they are racing to accumulate power, standing, and wealth before the implosion starts to kick in.
  - noosphr 7mo ago
    Everyone is seeing a population implosion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/media/File%3AWorld_population_pyramid_2026.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/med... we are already past peak child.
    - cryptonector 7mo ago
      Some are doing worse than others, and China is doing close to the worst.
      - noosphr 7mo ago
        China is doing much better than the West. The only thing keeping populations from imploding here is the constant migration from the third world.
        amanaplanacanal 7mo ago
        I don't understand. You say China is doing better than the West, and then explain why the West is doing so much better than China.
        noosphr 7mo ago
        The West isn't doing better. The West is destroying third world countries to take their human resources. Blowing up the middle east created more uber eats drivers than defunding all the schools in Detroit ever did.
- anovikov 7mo ago
  I think you haven't been following the news. US demographics is by far the healthiest of all halfway developed countries, with the exception of Israel. China has third low TFR in the world after South Korea and Taiwan, and is facing extinction within two generations whereas society and the economy will simply cease because all available labor will be consumed by caring hundreds of millions of extremely elderly people. By 2100, US will look about the same as Western Europe looks today: ageing, but still OK. China will be no more.
cryptonector 7mo ago
The American advantage in launches would get narrowed within ten years. China only needs to be able to get their own constellation up; they don't need to keep SpaceX levels of launch cadence.
- danny_codes 7mo ago
  American technological superiority is overblown. The only reason we’re ahead is because of immigration. As China/other countries get wealthier and the US gets less friendly, smart people stay home. One generation later and the best scientists will in those countries, not here.
danny_codes 7mo ago
This seems like a terrible idea. Kessler syndrome is a few provocations down the road from military satellites. As technology advances the consequences of war get worse. Asymmetrical warfare gets more effective. We should be building and maintaining a rules-based international community predicating on peaceful resolution of disputes.

GorbachevyChase 7mo ago

To be honest, I think US demographic trends are a lot worse than whatever is going on with China.

deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
PeterHolzwarth 7mo ago
Oh my goodness, this is deeply untrue. China is facing a massive population implosion. A lot of their global strategy can be understood through that lens: they are racing to accumulate power, standing, and wealth before the implosion starts to kick in.
- noosphr 7mo ago
  Everyone is seeing a population implosion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/media/File%3AWorld_population_pyramid_2026.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world#/med... we are already past peak child.
  - cryptonector 7mo ago
    Some are doing worse than others, and China is doing close to the worst.
    - noosphr 7mo ago
      China is doing much better than the West. The only thing keeping populations from imploding here is the constant migration from the third world.
      - amanaplanacanal 7mo ago
        I don't understand. You say China is doing better than the West, and then explain why the West is doing so much better than China.
        noosphr 7mo ago
        The West isn't doing better. The West is destroying third world countries to take their human resources. Blowing up the middle east created more uber eats drivers than defunding all the schools in Detroit ever did.
anovikov 7mo ago
I think you haven't been following the news. US demographics is by far the healthiest of all halfway developed countries, with the exception of Israel. China has third low TFR in the world after South Korea and Taiwan, and is facing extinction within two generations whereas society and the economy will simply cease because all available labor will be consumed by caring hundreds of millions of extremely elderly people. By 2100, US will look about the same as Western Europe looks today: ageing, but still OK. China will be no more.

cryptonector 7mo ago

The American advantage in launches would get narrowed within ten years. China only needs to be able to get their own constellation up; they don't need to keep SpaceX levels of launch cadence.

danny_codes 7mo ago
American technological superiority is overblown. The only reason we’re ahead is because of immigration. As China/other countries get wealthier and the US gets less friendly, smart people stay home. One generation later and the best scientists will in those countries, not here.

danny_codes 7mo ago

This seems like a terrible idea. Kessler syndrome is a few provocations down the road from military satellites. As technology advances the consequences of war get worse. Asymmetrical warfare gets more effective. We should be building and maintaining a rules-based international community predicating on peaceful resolution of disputes.