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An Iraqi security source said they think it was an Iranian boat rigged with explosives. If Iran does have underwater explosive drones, why would they boast abo

An Iraqi security source said they think it was an Iranian boat rigged with explosives. If Iran does have underwater explosive drones, why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?

an_guy 7mo ago
"If Iran has missiles why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?" See how that doesn't make any sense?
CapricornNoble 7mo ago
>why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems? To complicate adversary targeting priorities. If you have to shift your pre-planned bombing sorties away from, say, local Basij HQ buildings, it takes pressure off of the Iranian government. Assigning aircraft to find/fix/target/track/engage "underwater drone launch points" is probably like searching for a needle in a haystack given the size of Iran's coastline.
bigyabai 7mo ago
It might have been a low-observable watercraft like the Sea Baby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby A true UUV attack is probably outside Iran's wheelhouse, but cutting-down an attack speedboat to the waterline seems very realistic.
- cyberax 7mo ago
  Why would it be outside of Iran capabilities? They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones.
  - bigyabai 7mo ago
    It's not impossible. Iran has connections with China, who is great at designing and manufacturing UUVs. That said, a UUV fleet would have downsides for Iran. It's expensive, dependent on imports and an overmatch for swarm-style attacks. Attack boats are a closer fit for the "cheap/attritable" tactics we see used with Shaheds.
    - cyberax 7mo ago
      I think you're overestimating the complexity of small unmanned subs. Drug traffickers are building _manned_ subs now in South American jungles. You just need a body (plastic tube), batteries, motors, and a computer. Maybe with a "range extender" gas engine. Everything can be COTS, and Iran certainly can manufacture occasional custom components. After all, it can manufacture centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
      - bigyabai 7mo ago
        Maybe! Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. The truly watertight/submerged ones are few and far between; it's a lot of investment for marginal decrease in observability. My money is still on low-observable attack craft, or a high-low mix that deprioritizes submersibles. Iran has an impressive panopoly but also has casus belli to lie out their nose. If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers. I could definitely be wrong though, I don't have any insider info to work with here.
        cyberax 7mo ago
        > Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. Some are now fully submersible: https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofnarco-sub-seizures-tell-us-about-global-cocaine-routes/ https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofna... I think it is indeed more likely that they used a low-profile boat, but I won't discount a full submersible. Or maybe a combination: a low-profile boat that uses a regular outboard gas engine to get close to the target, and then dives and attacks like a torpedo. > If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers. I don't think they can do serious damage to large US Navy vessels.
  - dingaling 7mo ago
    > They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones. Shaheeds are aerodynamic clones of the Israeli Harpy SEAD drone, which in turn were based on the German Dornier DAR of the 1980s. Compared to the loitering anti-radar DAR, the Shaheed is electronically extremely simple and not much more advanced than the WW2 V-1. The fact that Russia started producing Shaheeds reflects more on the poor state of Russian industry than any sophistication of Iranian technology.
    - fc417fc802 7mo ago
      It's so odd that in modern America weapons being cheap and practical is often seen as a negative. Have to make sure to fork over a couple million per shot to a defence contractor.
      - DrProtic 7mo ago
        Guy is full of it though. Iranian drones are very effective while American Switchblade drones shit the bed completely in Ukraine. We have US cloning Iranian drones now https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/10/flm-136-americas-cheap-iran-designed-shahed-drone-clone https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/10/flm-136-americas-cheap-i...
        infamia 7mo ago
        You're comparing apples, bananas, and pineapples while pretending they're all one thing. Switchblades are extremely effective (albeit expensive) anti-personnel (300 model) and anti-armor (600 model) drones. Shaheds are much larger, cheap, low on capabilities, but attritable used to attack fixed positions (e.g., buildings). These are all very different.
        Teever 7mo ago
        That's the point -- maybe the US should have bought apples instead of buying bananas.
        7mo ago
data-ottawa 7mo ago
Iran has two clear win conditions in this war: cause enough pain that the US withdraws (unlikely given the current admin), or wait until US midterms and hope the Dems secure a victory and use the war powers resolution to end the war. The more FUD they can generate around transport in the strait of Hermuz the better for them. Maybe they have this capability and maybe they don’t, but they are clearly able to hit these tankers with something. Ukraine has been using these drones so it’s entirely possible Iran has this tech too.
- Eddy_Viscosity2 7mo ago
  This admin does TACO all the time. A likely scenario is Iran causes economic problems, Trump chickens out and withdraws while simultaneously declaring absolute victory. Any lingering problems he blames on Rubio and hegseth.
  - baq 7mo ago
    TACO isn't enough, Iran must also withdraw, this isn't a given if they feel they have nothing to lose
    - morkalork 7mo ago
      Unfortunately, the new leader's father, wife and children are all dead.
      - orwin 7mo ago
        Not all his children, only his daughters. Also his nomination seriously pushes Iran from a theocracy to an elective monarchy imho. Wich, to be clear, is a common slide for theocracies. The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide.
        dragonwriter 7mo ago
        > The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide. Pretty impressive effect, given that there is no such ban. There are a number of other rules which can combine to make it look approximately like there is, but there isn't.

an_guy 7mo ago

"If Iran has missiles why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems?" See how that doesn't make any sense?

CapricornNoble 7mo ago

>why would they boast about it and invite attacks upon that weapon and its deployment systems? To complicate adversary targeting priorities. If you have to shift your pre-planned bombing sorties away from, say, local Basij HQ buildings, it takes pressure off of the Iranian government. Assigning aircraft to find/fix/target/track/engage "underwater drone launch points" is probably like searching for a needle in a haystack given the size of Iran's coastline.

bigyabai 7mo ago

It might have been a low-observable watercraft like the Sea Baby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Baby A true UUV attack is probably outside Iran's wheelhouse, but cutting-down an attack speedboat to the waterline seems very realistic.

cyberax 7mo ago
Why would it be outside of Iran capabilities? They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones.
- bigyabai 7mo ago
  It's not impossible. Iran has connections with China, who is great at designing and manufacturing UUVs. That said, a UUV fleet would have downsides for Iran. It's expensive, dependent on imports and an overmatch for swarm-style attacks. Attack boats are a closer fit for the "cheap/attritable" tactics we see used with Shaheds.
  - cyberax 7mo ago
    I think you're overestimating the complexity of small unmanned subs. Drug traffickers are building _manned_ subs now in South American jungles. You just need a body (plastic tube), batteries, motors, and a computer. Maybe with a "range extender" gas engine. Everything can be COTS, and Iran certainly can manufacture occasional custom components. After all, it can manufacture centrifuges for uranium enrichment.
    - bigyabai 7mo ago
      Maybe! Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. The truly watertight/submerged ones are few and far between; it's a lot of investment for marginal decrease in observability. My money is still on low-observable attack craft, or a high-low mix that deprioritizes submersibles. Iran has an impressive panopoly but also has casus belli to lie out their nose. If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers. I could definitely be wrong though, I don't have any insider info to work with here.
      - cyberax 7mo ago
        > Most of those unmanned narcosubs are cut-down speedboats hulls, to my knowledge. Some are now fully submersible: https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofnarco-sub-seizures-tell-us-about-global-cocaine-routes/ https://insightcrime.org/news/under-radar-what-hundreds-ofna... I think it is indeed more likely that they used a low-profile boat, but I won't discount a full submersible. Or maybe a combination: a low-profile boat that uses a regular outboard gas engine to get close to the target, and then dives and attacks like a torpedo. > If Iran does have fully submersable UUVs, I'd expect them to be saved for a direct confrontation with the US Navy, not tankers. I don't think they can do serious damage to large US Navy vessels.
- dingaling 7mo ago
  > They are the ones who provided Russia with Shahed drones. Shaheeds are aerodynamic clones of the Israeli Harpy SEAD drone, which in turn were based on the German Dornier DAR of the 1980s. Compared to the loitering anti-radar DAR, the Shaheed is electronically extremely simple and not much more advanced than the WW2 V-1. The fact that Russia started producing Shaheeds reflects more on the poor state of Russian industry than any sophistication of Iranian technology.
  - fc417fc802 7mo ago
    It's so odd that in modern America weapons being cheap and practical is often seen as a negative. Have to make sure to fork over a couple million per shot to a defence contractor.
    - DrProtic 7mo ago
      Guy is full of it though. Iranian drones are very effective while American Switchblade drones shit the bed completely in Ukraine. We have US cloning Iranian drones now https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/10/flm-136-americas-cheap-iran-designed-shahed-drone-clone https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/10/flm-136-americas-cheap-i...
      - infamia 7mo ago
        You're comparing apples, bananas, and pineapples while pretending they're all one thing. Switchblades are extremely effective (albeit expensive) anti-personnel (300 model) and anti-armor (600 model) drones. Shaheds are much larger, cheap, low on capabilities, but attritable used to attack fixed positions (e.g., buildings). These are all very different.
        Teever 7mo ago
        That's the point -- maybe the US should have bought apples instead of buying bananas.
        7mo ago

data-ottawa 7mo ago

Iran has two clear win conditions in this war: cause enough pain that the US withdraws (unlikely given the current admin), or wait until US midterms and hope the Dems secure a victory and use the war powers resolution to end the war. The more FUD they can generate around transport in the strait of Hermuz the better for them. Maybe they have this capability and maybe they don’t, but they are clearly able to hit these tankers with something. Ukraine has been using these drones so it’s entirely possible Iran has this tech too.

Eddy_Viscosity2 7mo ago
This admin does TACO all the time. A likely scenario is Iran causes economic problems, Trump chickens out and withdraws while simultaneously declaring absolute victory. Any lingering problems he blames on Rubio and hegseth.
- baq 7mo ago
  TACO isn't enough, Iran must also withdraw, this isn't a given if they feel they have nothing to lose
  - morkalork 7mo ago
    Unfortunately, the new leader's father, wife and children are all dead.
    - orwin 7mo ago
      Not all his children, only his daughters. Also his nomination seriously pushes Iran from a theocracy to an elective monarchy imho. Wich, to be clear, is a common slide for theocracies. The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide.
      - dragonwriter 7mo ago
        > The Papal ban on children for priests is perhaps the only instance where a theocracy managed to prevent this slide. Pretty impressive effect, given that there is no such ban. There are a number of other rules which can combine to make it look approximately like there is, but there isn't.