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Russia's oil revenue was down but it was far from being game changing even with stricter sanctions. The oil sector hit has always been more of a big incentive t

by dmix 8mo ago

Russia's oil revenue was down but it was far from being game changing even with stricter sanctions. The oil sector hit has always been more of a big incentive to end the war then something than will impact it militarily on the ground.

demosito666 8mo ago
Really? Cost of extraction in Russia is about $30/barrel, sanctions introduced discount of about $20/barrel in 2025 which means 70% profit drop at market price of $60. Sounds pretty game changing to me.
- wood_spirit 8mo ago
  But would it have got them to stop the war? Seems unlikely.
  - gzread 8mo ago
    Probably not but it changes the calculus of whether Ukraine or Russia will win.
    - throwaway27448 8mo ago
      I mean no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost
      - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost This is nonsense. Lviv is by all accounts a thriving city. And Ukraine's defence-industrial base is now among Europe's finest.
        throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real.
        JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real No, Lviv the Molotov city. Like, yes, if you've already carved up Ukraine in your head, it's obviously losing. By that metric China has been losing to the Mongolians its whole history.
        throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Look, ukraine's economy is destroyed, the men are either dead, disabled, or have fled, and the ones who haven't are being kidnapped off the street to be pressed into service, the grid has been set back by decades, they're deep deep in debt, and everyone knows they aren't getting the mineral-rich east back. It's beginning to look doubtful if they can even keep their black sea port. They have under half the population now than they did when the soviet republic collapsed (granted, mostly due to circumstances unrelated to the war—notably, outmigration.) So perhaps I was being a bit of a dick by calling Lviv polish, but it will probably take ukraine decades, maybe a century or more, to recover from this devastation, even if against all odds they manage to enforce their absurd demands that russia withdraw. It does matter to a nation to keep its historic lands, and ukraine has already lost about half of all traditionally ukrainian land + crimea. Far western ukraine, including Lviv, has only been considered "ukraine" for a little over a hundred years.
        andriy_koval 8mo ago
        Why do you spell Lviv capitalized but Ukraine not? You are too xenophobic toward Ukrainians?
        throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Be serious. I don't care about any of europe; the rest of the west is doing just fine caring about it incessantly at the top of their voices regardless of who asked. My heart belongs in east africa. I'll try to be more sensitive with what I capitalize—but I don't really give a damn about either ukraine or russia—both seem like far-right corrupt states that don't take care of their citizens well—though I do feel very sad for the humans caught between them.
    - ukblewis 8mo ago
      Not necessarily: Money isn’t everything. Russia cannot produce electronics on its own, so only because American companies sell to shell companies that sell to Russia is Russia able to launch missiles and similar high tech weapons on Ukraine and, no, Russia has no chance in hell of winning in Ukraine with the so called (sadly but truly deeply dehumanising) “meat wave” attacks sending in soldiers with little training and just a riffle… So really oil revenues are a way to hurt Russia but not a way to cause them to lose the war, but depriving them of American technology that they need to develop the kinds of weapons that they use to attack Ukrainian cities and power stations and infrastructure probably would
- dmix 8mo ago
  Russia can still produce tens of thousands of drones, missiles, and push up endless meatwaves of conscripts even if their oil sector declines (oil is 15% of their GDP). This war hasn't been that sophisticated for a while. Drones are cheap and China will keep selling them parts while buying their oil.

by dmix 8mo ago

demosito666 8mo ago

Really? Cost of extraction in Russia is about $30/barrel, sanctions introduced discount of about $20/barrel in 2025 which means 70% profit drop at market price of $60. Sounds pretty game changing to me.

wood_spirit 8mo ago
But would it have got them to stop the war? Seems unlikely.
- gzread 8mo ago
  Probably not but it changes the calculus of whether Ukraine or Russia will win.
  - throwaway27448 8mo ago
    I mean no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost
    - JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
      > no matter how the war ends ukraine has lost This is nonsense. Lviv is by all accounts a thriving city. And Ukraine's defence-industrial base is now among Europe's finest.
      - throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real.
        JumpCrisscross 8mo ago
        > Lviv, the Polish city? Come on let's be real No, Lviv the Molotov city. Like, yes, if you've already carved up Ukraine in your head, it's obviously losing. By that metric China has been losing to the Mongolians its whole history.
        throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Look, ukraine's economy is destroyed, the men are either dead, disabled, or have fled, and the ones who haven't are being kidnapped off the street to be pressed into service, the grid has been set back by decades, they're deep deep in debt, and everyone knows they aren't getting the mineral-rich east back. It's beginning to look doubtful if they can even keep their black sea port. They have under half the population now than they did when the soviet republic collapsed (granted, mostly due to circumstances unrelated to the war—notably, outmigration.) So perhaps I was being a bit of a dick by calling Lviv polish, but it will probably take ukraine decades, maybe a century or more, to recover from this devastation, even if against all odds they manage to enforce their absurd demands that russia withdraw. It does matter to a nation to keep its historic lands, and ukraine has already lost about half of all traditionally ukrainian land + crimea. Far western ukraine, including Lviv, has only been considered "ukraine" for a little over a hundred years.
        andriy_koval 8mo ago
        Why do you spell Lviv capitalized but Ukraine not? You are too xenophobic toward Ukrainians?
        throwaway27448 8mo ago
        Be serious. I don't care about any of europe; the rest of the west is doing just fine caring about it incessantly at the top of their voices regardless of who asked. My heart belongs in east africa. I'll try to be more sensitive with what I capitalize—but I don't really give a damn about either ukraine or russia—both seem like far-right corrupt states that don't take care of their citizens well—though I do feel very sad for the humans caught between them.
  - ukblewis 8mo ago
    Not necessarily: Money isn’t everything. Russia cannot produce electronics on its own, so only because American companies sell to shell companies that sell to Russia is Russia able to launch missiles and similar high tech weapons on Ukraine and, no, Russia has no chance in hell of winning in Ukraine with the so called (sadly but truly deeply dehumanising) “meat wave” attacks sending in soldiers with little training and just a riffle… So really oil revenues are a way to hurt Russia but not a way to cause them to lose the war, but depriving them of American technology that they need to develop the kinds of weapons that they use to attack Ukrainian cities and power stations and infrastructure probably would
dmix 8mo ago
Russia can still produce tens of thousands of drones, missiles, and push up endless meatwaves of conscripts even if their oil sector declines (oil is 15% of their GDP). This war hasn't been that sophisticated for a while. Drones are cheap and China will keep selling them parts while buying their oil.