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My thoughts. The escorts serve little benefit to the US given the risk. US doesn’t “need” the Persian gulf exports as much as other countries (who could run the

My thoughts. The escorts serve little benefit to the US given the risk. US doesn’t “need” the Persian gulf exports as much as other countries (who could run their own minesweeping operations). Iran mining Hormuz is a feature not a bug for US effort in a “proxy war” against Iran (hint: it’s all about China)

dnemmers 7mo ago
What do you think happens when China starts increasing prices on goods sold worldwide, due to oil shortages? Global supply chain impacts have global ramifications.
- alephnerd 7mo ago
  Both China [0] and India [1] are getting safe passage via the Straits of Hormuz from Iran. Additionally, Russia is redirecting LNG from Europe (the ongoing Hungary-Ukraine spat) to Asia [2]. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-talks-with-iran-allow-safe-oil-gas-passage-through-hormuz-sources-say-2026-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-talks-with-ira... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-allow-india-flagged-tankers-pass-through-strait-hormuz-indian-source-says-2026-03-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-allow-india-flagged... [2] - https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/ https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/
  - lokar 7mo ago
    Didn’t they attack the Chinese flagged “Hailan Journey”?
    - alephnerd 7mo ago
      I think you are confusing it with the Thai "Mayuree Naree" [0]. Honestly, it's best to ignore X/Twitter for this conflict. Internet access has been restricted bordering on nonexistent in Iran since the massacres in January, and most countries in the region have also either locked down internet access or don't interact in the English language social media bubble. The Ukraine War is the last war where OSINT had significant accuracy - most states have cracked down on information dissemination and enhanced OpSec. Edit: turns out the Heilan Journey transited [1]. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-seeks-apology-iran-after-vessel-hit-strait-hormuz-2026-03-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-seeks-ap... [1] - https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/03/12/chinese-ships-strait-of-hormuz-transit-war/ https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/03/12/chinese-ships-strait...
libertine 7mo ago
So once again, this operation seems to just benefit Russia, and no one else. China still gets access to Iranian oil, though with high risk and a much slower pace. India is getting access to Russian oil without sanctions now, but they're in a really tricky situation - one Iranian ship was torpedoed coming from an event promoted by India where there was safety requirements in place. This isn't good. Many countries are tapping into reserves, and being severely affected by higher prices. All while Russia gets sanctions removed and a oil price hike, when they were in a critical situation economically. Even the USA shrugging off of the reports of Intel shared with Iran is insane.
- amelius 7mo ago
  > All while Russia gets sanctions removed and a oil price hike Yes, CNN has an analysis: "How Trump’s Iran exposure could hand Putin a lottery win" https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-russia-putin-analysis https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-r...
- ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
  There's two sides to it. Russia of course wants the war to become a quagmire for everyone supporting Ukraine. But the reason the US and Israel is even able to do what they are doing is because Russia is spending all its resources fighting Ukraine. Russia is too weak to do anything to meddle in the conflict. Five years ago Russia would have its navy in the area, private militias on the ground and been an all around nuisance. Today they are non-existant outside of Ukraine. A sound analysis on it: Trump, Putin, and the war in Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQfGM1IidoA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQfGM1IidoA
  - libertine 7mo ago
    I'm not sure if that's the reason why US and Israel pulled the trigger, twice. But for sure it helped. It helped with Syria, Armenia, Venezuela, and now Iran. But that doesn't explain why the current US administration continues to be submissive to what Russia is now: an isolated regional power - and even this is arguable because it will depend on the region. Like, this is the biggest geopolitical blunder of modern Russia that will probably lead to the collapse of the federation (economic, demographic, diplomatic) - and this catering is all based on personal good relationship? It just doesn't make any sense.
cpursley 7mo ago
Pretty interesting paper/presentation: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1735&context=nwc-review https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl...

dnemmers 7mo ago

What do you think happens when China starts increasing prices on goods sold worldwide, due to oil shortages? Global supply chain impacts have global ramifications.

alephnerd 7mo ago
Both China [0] and India [1] are getting safe passage via the Straits of Hormuz from Iran. Additionally, Russia is redirecting LNG from Europe (the ongoing Hungary-Ukraine spat) to Asia [2]. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-talks-with-iran-allow-safe-oil-gas-passage-through-hormuz-sources-say-2026-03-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-talks-with-ira... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-allow-india-flagged-tankers-pass-through-strait-hormuz-indian-source-says-2026-03-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/iran-allow-india-flagged... [2] - https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/ https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/116517/
- lokar 7mo ago
  Didn’t they attack the Chinese flagged “Hailan Journey”?
  - alephnerd 7mo ago
    I think you are confusing it with the Thai "Mayuree Naree" [0]. Honestly, it's best to ignore X/Twitter for this conflict. Internet access has been restricted bordering on nonexistent in Iran since the massacres in January, and most countries in the region have also either locked down internet access or don't interact in the English language social media bubble. The Ukraine War is the last war where OSINT had significant accuracy - most states have cracked down on information dissemination and enhanced OpSec. Edit: turns out the Heilan Journey transited [1]. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-seeks-apology-iran-after-vessel-hit-strait-hormuz-2026-03-12/ https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-seeks-ap... [1] - https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/03/12/chinese-ships-strait-of-hormuz-transit-war/ https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2026/03/12/chinese-ships-strait...

libertine 7mo ago

So once again, this operation seems to just benefit Russia, and no one else. China still gets access to Iranian oil, though with high risk and a much slower pace. India is getting access to Russian oil without sanctions now, but they're in a really tricky situation - one Iranian ship was torpedoed coming from an event promoted by India where there was safety requirements in place. This isn't good. Many countries are tapping into reserves, and being severely affected by higher prices. All while Russia gets sanctions removed and a oil price hike, when they were in a critical situation economically. Even the USA shrugging off of the reports of Intel shared with Iran is insane.

amelius 7mo ago
> All while Russia gets sanctions removed and a oil price hike Yes, CNN has an analysis: "How Trump’s Iran exposure could hand Putin a lottery win" https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-russia-putin-analysis https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/trump-iran-war-r...
ViewTrick1002 7mo ago
There's two sides to it. Russia of course wants the war to become a quagmire for everyone supporting Ukraine. But the reason the US and Israel is even able to do what they are doing is because Russia is spending all its resources fighting Ukraine. Russia is too weak to do anything to meddle in the conflict. Five years ago Russia would have its navy in the area, private militias on the ground and been an all around nuisance. Today they are non-existant outside of Ukraine. A sound analysis on it: Trump, Putin, and the war in Iran https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQfGM1IidoA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQfGM1IidoA
- libertine 7mo ago
  I'm not sure if that's the reason why US and Israel pulled the trigger, twice. But for sure it helped. It helped with Syria, Armenia, Venezuela, and now Iran. But that doesn't explain why the current US administration continues to be submissive to what Russia is now: an isolated regional power - and even this is arguable because it will depend on the region. Like, this is the biggest geopolitical blunder of modern Russia that will probably lead to the collapse of the federation (economic, demographic, diplomatic) - and this catering is all based on personal good relationship? It just doesn't make any sense.

cpursley 7mo ago

Pretty interesting paper/presentation: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1735&context=nwc-review https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?articl...