4 ms·

Iran tells world to get ready for oil at $200 a barrel

35 points by geox 8mo ago

goodmythical 8mo ago
ATH was <$148 and we're not even breaching COVID highs and we're down ~30% from three days ago.
- toomuchtodo 8mo ago
  If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    > If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz allies can just prohibit any ships to enter that area from Iranian shore or be attacked, not sure how Iran can plant those mines then.
    - mamonster 8mo ago
      Iran has an MLRS mining system. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking-news-iran-demonstrates-fajr-5-rocket-launcher-for-sea-mine-laying-threatening-global-maritime-security https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking... It won't take out a military ship but its more than enough for tankers to not cross the straight.
      - andriy_koval 8mo ago
        Ok, then the only hope is that they are very few and maybe already destroyed.
        hnburnsy 8mo ago
        US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-toward-saudi-arabia-and-kuwait/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-towa...
        general1465 8mo ago
        You can also kick out a mine out of a speed boat or USV, so that sounds like a non issue.
        goodmythical 8mo ago
        "allies can just prohibit any (vessels) to enter that area "
        general1465 8mo ago
        Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
        deleted 8mo ago
        [deleted]
    - KellyCriterion 8mo ago
      maybe they did already?
    - general1465 8mo ago
      Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets. Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
    - cosmicgadget 8mo ago
      Ignoring the prohibition, for one.
- general1465 8mo ago
  It is dropping because countries released strategic oil reserves. That's temporary band aid.
  - KellyCriterion 8mo ago
    ...and a very bad idea IMHO and will fire back soon?
    - general1465 8mo ago
      If Iran will close the strait and USA will fail to open it, then yeah very likely will shoot up.
bitroughj 8mo ago
That would be a foolish move for Iran, but they seem to be making a lot of foolish moves. Isn’t there a saying about never throwing away the moral high ground? As though they are trying to out-stupid Netanyahu’s man in the whitehouse.
- tartoran 8mo ago
  Kindof stupid to attack them the way we did, no planning, rash, cruel (school children killed) etc. Now we're all going to have to suffer through the consequences regardless of whether the Iranian regime survives or not.
- toldnotmywrath 8mo ago
  I think the reasoning is that if you don't make an adventure like this painful, the US will not think twice about returning again.
  - watwut 8mo ago
    Yeah, I think they concluded that measured responses before just made Trump think escalating is safe. And like, Trump always escalates if he thinks he can.
  - andriy_koval 8mo ago
    Its way more painful for rest of the world except Russia, and not US. They will make little pain on US, and make world and neighbors extremely angry on them.
  - bitroughj 8mo ago
    Only someone entirely ignorant of history would embrace that reasoning.
10xDev 8mo ago
They are attempting MAD but without nukes. The problem is that while the US seems to have obliterated Iran, they have no endgame plan on actually accomplishing a regime change. They thought about arming Kurdish Iranians but wen't against the idea, now we seem to be in a perpetual state of "it is over / it is not over".
- watwut 8mo ago
  Iran does not seem obliterated to me at all. Also, Israel does not want regime change. They want failed state, either civil war or otherwise incapabke to govern. USA does not know what the fuck it wants.
  - specproc 8mo ago
    The USA wants whatever Bibi wants.
deleted 8mo ago
[deleted]
mannyv 8mo ago
Iran has perfected the "full of shit" playbook. The press repeat it because clickbait.
- general1465 8mo ago
  They already hit 3 ships. They don't need to mine the strait, just making it impassable due to insurance cost because you can end up with a hole in a tanker is enough.
- cosmicgadget 8mo ago
  Meanwhile on the other side of the conflict we have "war is complete" and "Iran better remove their mines or we will bomb them". It's shit all the way down.
thomassmith65 8mo ago
Yesterday I posted the following link to an interview with David Woo (he's a finance guy). It's on this topic, and quite good: David Woo: The Market Is Wrong About Iran, Oil and What Comes Next https://youtube.com/watch?v=W2Z6UVv_wl4 https://youtube.com/watch?v=W2Z6UVv_wl4
ajewhere 8mo ago
After what you did to them, I hope this will be the biggest problem.
aaron695 8mo ago
[dead]

35 points by geox 8mo ago

goodmythical 8mo ago

ATH was <$148 and we're not even breaching COVID highs and we're down ~30% from three days ago.

toomuchtodo 8mo ago
If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2]. [1] https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  > If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz allies can just prohibit any ships to enter that area from Iranian shore or be attacked, not sure how Iran can plant those mines then.
  - mamonster 8mo ago
    Iran has an MLRS mining system. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking-news-iran-demonstrates-fajr-5-rocket-launcher-for-sea-mine-laying-threatening-global-maritime-security https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking... It won't take out a military ship but its more than enough for tankers to not cross the straight.
    - andriy_koval 8mo ago
      Ok, then the only hope is that they are very few and maybe already destroyed.
      - hnburnsy 8mo ago
        US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-toward-saudi-arabia-and-kuwait/ https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-towa...
        general1465 8mo ago
        You can also kick out a mine out of a speed boat or USV, so that sounds like a non issue.
        goodmythical 8mo ago
        "allies can just prohibit any (vessels) to enter that area "
        general1465 8mo ago
        Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
        deleted 8mo ago
        [deleted]
  - KellyCriterion 8mo ago
    maybe they did already?
  - general1465 8mo ago
    Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets. Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
  - cosmicgadget 8mo ago
    Ignoring the prohibition, for one.
general1465 8mo ago
It is dropping because countries released strategic oil reserves. That's temporary band aid.
- KellyCriterion 8mo ago
  ...and a very bad idea IMHO and will fire back soon?
  - general1465 8mo ago
    If Iran will close the strait and USA will fail to open it, then yeah very likely will shoot up.

bitroughj 8mo ago

That would be a foolish move for Iran, but they seem to be making a lot of foolish moves. Isn’t there a saying about never throwing away the moral high ground? As though they are trying to out-stupid Netanyahu’s man in the whitehouse.

tartoran 8mo ago
Kindof stupid to attack them the way we did, no planning, rash, cruel (school children killed) etc. Now we're all going to have to suffer through the consequences regardless of whether the Iranian regime survives or not.
toldnotmywrath 8mo ago
I think the reasoning is that if you don't make an adventure like this painful, the US will not think twice about returning again.
- watwut 8mo ago
  Yeah, I think they concluded that measured responses before just made Trump think escalating is safe. And like, Trump always escalates if he thinks he can.
- andriy_koval 8mo ago
  Its way more painful for rest of the world except Russia, and not US. They will make little pain on US, and make world and neighbors extremely angry on them.
- bitroughj 8mo ago
  Only someone entirely ignorant of history would embrace that reasoning.

10xDev 8mo ago

They are attempting MAD but without nukes. The problem is that while the US seems to have obliterated Iran, they have no endgame plan on actually accomplishing a regime change. They thought about arming Kurdish Iranians but wen't against the idea, now we seem to be in a perpetual state of "it is over / it is not over".

watwut 8mo ago
Iran does not seem obliterated to me at all. Also, Israel does not want regime change. They want failed state, either civil war or otherwise incapabke to govern. USA does not know what the fuck it wants.
- specproc 8mo ago
  The USA wants whatever Bibi wants.

deleted 8mo ago

[deleted]

mannyv 8mo ago

Iran has perfected the "full of shit" playbook. The press repeat it because clickbait.

general1465 8mo ago
They already hit 3 ships. They don't need to mine the strait, just making it impassable due to insurance cost because you can end up with a hole in a tanker is enough.
cosmicgadget 8mo ago
Meanwhile on the other side of the conflict we have "war is complete" and "Iran better remove their mines or we will bomb them". It's shit all the way down.

thomassmith65 8mo ago

Yesterday I posted the following link to an interview with David Woo (he's a finance guy). It's on this topic, and quite good: David Woo: The Market Is Wrong About Iran, Oil and What Comes Next https://youtube.com/watch?v=W2Z6UVv_wl4 https://youtube.com/watch?v=W2Z6UVv_wl4

ajewhere 8mo ago

After what you did to them, I hope this will be the biggest problem.

aaron695 8mo ago

[dead]