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I am afraid that this will bring them closer together. That the people who would welcome outside world to do a magical thing that reforms Iran wont like the pra

by watwut 8mo ago

I am afraid that this will bring them closer together. That the people who would welcome outside world to do a magical thing that reforms Iran wont like the practical thing the world actually did. By afraid I am not saying it will happen, it is not a prediction. I think that it is a risk.

tgma 8mo ago
After they killed 40k+ in Jan? Perhaps.
- kakacik 8mo ago
  Current campaigns will kill way more iranians. Plus regime didn't bomb 200 girls to pieces in their school, did it. Thats extremely hard sell, with cherry on top when you have a literal video of tomahawks hitting that area during that time and trump claiming it was iranians who bombed it... just spits and insults in the face
  - tgma 8mo ago
    > Current campaigns will kill way more iranians. Your math is not mathing. 30-40k in 2 days unarmed civilians vs I dunno 6k almost all military in a week? If you look at the stats of executions etc you'll see civilian casualties in Iran go DOWN while being bombed. > regime didn't bomb 200 girls to pieces in their school, did it. Yes, actually they did. It was their own missile. Just like the Ukrainian plane they shot down a few years back.
    - kakacik 8mo ago
      I said will, please read comments more thoroughly before replying. Everybody agrees this war will drag for some time. Care to backup those wild claims with any facts? The video of tomahawk I talk about is circulating all over internet, so its pretty uphill battle to discredit it when clearly tomahawks are landing
      - tgma 8mo ago
        Trump himself confirmed this on Air Force One earlier today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/03/07/trump-blames-iran-girls-school-bombing/89044150007/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/03/07/trump-... Nothing about this is such a wild claim if you are familiar with their past behavior. There were Persian language sources inside Iran that immediately after the incident attributed it to IRGC missile misfire, before some outlets started using that as propaganda material (which by the way played out perfectly.)
        pzo 8mo ago
        It's ridiculous to say "Trump himself confirmed this" as reliable source of truth.
        kakacik 8mo ago
        Do you lack proper internet connection today? Whole world media, western or not, are writing about this, how its clearly US missile. Bellingcat did a detailed analysis and confirmed this, look at washington post, guardian and so on. Plus the video itself, you somehow avoid commenting completely about the prime evidence. Not fitting your not entirely correct narrative, is it? If you would even care about the topic properly you could argue that school wasn't far from military base and divert the topic with some whataboutism and finish with fog of war theme, but even that's not whats happening here. 'Just trust trump' ain't going to cut it, not in 2026.
    - gerash 8mo ago
      40K death is fake news. Iran hitting their own school is fake news. Stop spreading lies. Can’t tell if it’s out of malice or ignorance though
- orwin 8mo ago
  Every weeks that number increases. Two weeks ago it was 30k, a week ago it was 35k, now it's 40k+, but OSINT sources keep the number around 15k (including 1.3 k from the Iranian government own forces) and don't move it up. I'm pretty sure the real number is higher than the one OSINT resources can give, considering the uprising and repression also happened in small, less connected cities, but the constant increase is honestly very off-putting, and the more it happens, the more it feels like manufacturing consent.
  - tgma 8mo ago
    There have been numbers as high as 90k reported initially, so I wouldn't say it is "moving up" across time but across sources. There is no clear data, but at this point 30-32k appears to be the lower bound estimate over which there's a consensus. Likely to be higher.
    - kelipso 8mo ago
      It’s just an NPC accusation thrown at Iran to justify killing millions of civilians. Why even entertain this shit from people who are just pretending to care about it. Everyone knows what they want to do is raze Iran.
    - orwin 8mo ago
      Maybe, but I distinctly remember the numbers 15 up to 30k two weeks ago from the UN Iran watchdog. Then a week ago, a US-based watchdog let the number 35k float, and all of the sudden that's the number used by US department of state. And now the number you just threw is 40k. Meanwhile, the OSINT community confirmed deaths are still around 15k. I will admit, the bombing doesn't help because we cross data from funerals and morgues/hospitals, and now we will have to distinguish bombing victims from repression victims, which in some areas (southeast and west mostly) is difficult.
    - DrProtic 8mo ago
      Consensus reached by the group that attacked them. Why do we have to go through this every time US attacks someone? Every time it turns out they lied through their teeth, yet people still believe. 30K is such an incredibly high number that you really have to be gullible to trust it.
- gerash 8mo ago
  That’s a manufactured made up number to down play the future civilian casualties from the war.

by watwut 8mo ago

tgma 8mo ago

After they killed 40k+ in Jan? Perhaps.

kakacik 8mo ago
Current campaigns will kill way more iranians. Plus regime didn't bomb 200 girls to pieces in their school, did it. Thats extremely hard sell, with cherry on top when you have a literal video of tomahawks hitting that area during that time and trump claiming it was iranians who bombed it... just spits and insults in the face
- tgma 8mo ago
  > Current campaigns will kill way more iranians. Your math is not mathing. 30-40k in 2 days unarmed civilians vs I dunno 6k almost all military in a week? If you look at the stats of executions etc you'll see civilian casualties in Iran go DOWN while being bombed. > regime didn't bomb 200 girls to pieces in their school, did it. Yes, actually they did. It was their own missile. Just like the Ukrainian plane they shot down a few years back.
  - kakacik 8mo ago
    I said will, please read comments more thoroughly before replying. Everybody agrees this war will drag for some time. Care to backup those wild claims with any facts? The video of tomahawk I talk about is circulating all over internet, so its pretty uphill battle to discredit it when clearly tomahawks are landing
    - tgma 8mo ago
      Trump himself confirmed this on Air Force One earlier today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/03/07/trump-blames-iran-girls-school-bombing/89044150007/ https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/03/07/trump-... Nothing about this is such a wild claim if you are familiar with their past behavior. There were Persian language sources inside Iran that immediately after the incident attributed it to IRGC missile misfire, before some outlets started using that as propaganda material (which by the way played out perfectly.)
      - pzo 8mo ago
        It's ridiculous to say "Trump himself confirmed this" as reliable source of truth.
      - kakacik 8mo ago
        Do you lack proper internet connection today? Whole world media, western or not, are writing about this, how its clearly US missile. Bellingcat did a detailed analysis and confirmed this, look at washington post, guardian and so on. Plus the video itself, you somehow avoid commenting completely about the prime evidence. Not fitting your not entirely correct narrative, is it? If you would even care about the topic properly you could argue that school wasn't far from military base and divert the topic with some whataboutism and finish with fog of war theme, but even that's not whats happening here. 'Just trust trump' ain't going to cut it, not in 2026.
  - gerash 8mo ago
    40K death is fake news. Iran hitting their own school is fake news. Stop spreading lies. Can’t tell if it’s out of malice or ignorance though
orwin 8mo ago
Every weeks that number increases. Two weeks ago it was 30k, a week ago it was 35k, now it's 40k+, but OSINT sources keep the number around 15k (including 1.3 k from the Iranian government own forces) and don't move it up. I'm pretty sure the real number is higher than the one OSINT resources can give, considering the uprising and repression also happened in small, less connected cities, but the constant increase is honestly very off-putting, and the more it happens, the more it feels like manufacturing consent.
- tgma 8mo ago
  There have been numbers as high as 90k reported initially, so I wouldn't say it is "moving up" across time but across sources. There is no clear data, but at this point 30-32k appears to be the lower bound estimate over which there's a consensus. Likely to be higher.
  - kelipso 8mo ago
    It’s just an NPC accusation thrown at Iran to justify killing millions of civilians. Why even entertain this shit from people who are just pretending to care about it. Everyone knows what they want to do is raze Iran.
  - orwin 8mo ago
    Maybe, but I distinctly remember the numbers 15 up to 30k two weeks ago from the UN Iran watchdog. Then a week ago, a US-based watchdog let the number 35k float, and all of the sudden that's the number used by US department of state. And now the number you just threw is 40k. Meanwhile, the OSINT community confirmed deaths are still around 15k. I will admit, the bombing doesn't help because we cross data from funerals and morgues/hospitals, and now we will have to distinguish bombing victims from repression victims, which in some areas (southeast and west mostly) is difficult.
  - DrProtic 8mo ago
    Consensus reached by the group that attacked them. Why do we have to go through this every time US attacks someone? Every time it turns out they lied through their teeth, yet people still believe. 30K is such an incredibly high number that you really have to be gullible to trust it.
gerash 8mo ago
That’s a manufactured made up number to down play the future civilian casualties from the war.