4 ms·

Yeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."

• metalcrow 7mo ago
  Not by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.
  • pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
    I wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...
    • metalcrow 7mo ago
      That's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.
      • pinkmuffinere 7mo ago
        Huh interesting. I suppose markets with low volume would tend to be the most profitable opportunities in that case? But then maybe they’re low volume because it’s hard to say what will happen…
  • jimkleiber 7mo ago
    Perhaps for people who have large sums of money, they don't tend to play in high risk bets anyways, they don't need to. Large sums make large sums on small percentage movement. Most people don't have enough money to make large sums on small percentage increase, id assume this route makes more sense for like the vast majority of humans, especially the ones who have access to privileged, often government, information.