4 ms·

The idea doesn't really make sense to me. We know LLMs increase productivity, especially for coding, but increasing productivity shouldn't make you fire people

The idea doesn't really make sense to me. We know LLMs increase productivity, especially for coding, but increasing productivity shouldn't make you fire people unless your business has already exhausted any potential for growth. Instead we would expect the increased productivity to grow businesses further and increase hiring for all other tasks that LLMs are still not good at.

thunky 7mo ago
> Instead we would expect the increased productivity to grow businesses further This assumes infinite demand which is not a good assumption imo. Especially if people are losing their jobs.
- root_axis 7mo ago
  You're right. My point is that AI isn't at the heart of the job shedding, it's just a scapegoat for other structural problems in the economy.
- _Tev 7mo ago
  > This assumes infinite demand which is not a good assumption imo. Yes, but "AI replaces people by improving productivity by 20-50%" is clearly a case of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy. So maybe the "people are losing their jobs" is just totally unrelated to AI . . . but people keep repeating that "companies can do same work with fewer people thanks to AI" nonsense, so there will always be a need to remind them how actual economics work.
mixdup 7mo ago
In a shrinking economy there isn't much growth. They can take the productivity gains to shrink their payrolls and get the same output with fewer people That said I don't think there is a ton of productivity growth yet with LLMs that would show up in the numbers that are getting thrown around. Companies are just finally seeing that they have a bunch of people not doing much at all and cleaning house
- root_axis 7mo ago
  Yep, no disagreements from me there. Ultimately, economic stagnation is what's driving job losses, not increased productivity (such that it is) from AI.
postalrat 7mo ago
I personally feel that people are coming to realize that whatever they build can be copied in a short amount of time so its value is much lower than it would have been in the past. So what's worth building?
01100011 7mo ago
AI is killing the notion that SW companies are infinite money printing machines. The idea is that someday soon(in the next 5-10 years as markets are forward looking), someone will vibe-code a replacement for Photoshop/TurboTax/Office and if nothing else that will kill the profit margins. This changes the entire economics of SW and affects current hiring and spending.
- hparadiz 7mo ago
  Quite the opposite. I just spent the past month "vibe coding" a pretty serious program in C. The tldr is yea I can build faster but I'm still sitting there testing, debugging, and focusing on specific features as I go and that's still a human limitation. The AI productivity is pivoted directly into higher complexity of features. It's not a magic wand that immediately builds a program that works perfectly out of the box. The zeitgeist just hasn't caught up to the reality of that.
  - 01100011 7mo ago
    And that's cool but your experience is not what the market is trading. The vibe is that vibe-coding will come together in the next few years and SW margins will be hit. That doesn't mean it's the reality, just that it is what the market is thinking.
    - hparadiz 7mo ago
      Yes. I'm saying the market is wrong.

thunky 7mo ago

> Instead we would expect the increased productivity to grow businesses further This assumes infinite demand which is not a good assumption imo. Especially if people are losing their jobs.

root_axis 7mo ago
You're right. My point is that AI isn't at the heart of the job shedding, it's just a scapegoat for other structural problems in the economy.
_Tev 7mo ago
> This assumes infinite demand which is not a good assumption imo. Yes, but "AI replaces people by improving productivity by 20-50%" is clearly a case of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy. So maybe the "people are losing their jobs" is just totally unrelated to AI . . . but people keep repeating that "companies can do same work with fewer people thanks to AI" nonsense, so there will always be a need to remind them how actual economics work.

mixdup 7mo ago

In a shrinking economy there isn't much growth. They can take the productivity gains to shrink their payrolls and get the same output with fewer people That said I don't think there is a ton of productivity growth yet with LLMs that would show up in the numbers that are getting thrown around. Companies are just finally seeing that they have a bunch of people not doing much at all and cleaning house

root_axis 7mo ago
Yep, no disagreements from me there. Ultimately, economic stagnation is what's driving job losses, not increased productivity (such that it is) from AI.

postalrat 7mo ago

I personally feel that people are coming to realize that whatever they build can be copied in a short amount of time so its value is much lower than it would have been in the past. So what's worth building?

01100011 7mo ago

AI is killing the notion that SW companies are infinite money printing machines. The idea is that someday soon(in the next 5-10 years as markets are forward looking), someone will vibe-code a replacement for Photoshop/TurboTax/Office and if nothing else that will kill the profit margins. This changes the entire economics of SW and affects current hiring and spending.

hparadiz 7mo ago
Quite the opposite. I just spent the past month "vibe coding" a pretty serious program in C. The tldr is yea I can build faster but I'm still sitting there testing, debugging, and focusing on specific features as I go and that's still a human limitation. The AI productivity is pivoted directly into higher complexity of features. It's not a magic wand that immediately builds a program that works perfectly out of the box. The zeitgeist just hasn't caught up to the reality of that.
- 01100011 7mo ago
  And that's cool but your experience is not what the market is trading. The vibe is that vibe-coding will come together in the next few years and SW margins will be hit. That doesn't mean it's the reality, just that it is what the market is thinking.
  - hparadiz 7mo ago
    Yes. I'm saying the market is wrong.