4 ms·

Trump Worries Iran's Leaders May Be Just 'As Bad' After War

14 points by petethomas 8mo ago

tim-tday 8mo ago
Wait, wait. Isn’t that something you should have considered BEFOREHAND?!
- Zigurd 8mo ago
  Elon fired all those useless "beforehand" people.
codevark 8mo ago
[dead]
SilverElfin 8mo ago
He literally had no plan. The Iranian regime was evil, no doubt. But if you’re going to try to fix that you need a plan. Otherwise the vacancy will be filled. By bad people. I can’t believe this isn’t obvious.
- motbus3 8mo ago
  Why would he? There will never be a way to prove, but somehow, many people thinks he just needs to repay his campaign supporters. It is funny to see how there are seemingly fake ruses just for people to forget. Like with EM for example
- anigbrowl 8mo ago
  I had to laugh (bleakly) when someone asked him the other day who the US would prefer to see leading Iran instead of Khamenei and he admitted that all his preferred alternatives were dead. No way to know if it's true for the time being, but I saw someone claim the other day that Khamenei had convened meetings of the more moderate senior clergy at his residence in anticipation of the attack, increasing the probability of a hardliner being chosen as his successor. Though speculative, it seems plausible.
- stephenr 8mo ago
  > But if you’re going to try to fix that How about just stop interfering in the rest of the world. Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan. What's next for the electric boogaloo treatment? Korea or Vietnam? Where would you like to lose the next pointless war.
  - JojoFatsani 8mo ago
    It’ll be Cuba
    - MonkeyIsNull 8mo ago
      > It’ll be Cuba Yes, who is taking bets? Gotta get money on the line.
      - clipsy 8mo ago
        > Yes, who is taking bets? Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026 Sure enough, the odds are surging!
- JojoFatsani 8mo ago
  His defense minister is an absolute lunatic media personality in way over his head who really thinks war is a video game. They’re using pew pews to try and drum up patriotism, all it’s going to do is drive up our gas prices. If there is a plan, it is to drive up gas prices to make fracked shale petroleum profitable again.
  - Zigurd 8mo ago
    It kind of is a video game being played by a feeble angry 80yo button mashing, and a drunk.
- ajewhere 8mo ago
  "The Iranian regime was evil.." You are more evil by far. Deliberately orchestrating, or trying to, civil wars in Syria, Lybia, other countries. Now trying to do so in Iran. You are not just evil, it goes beyond.
duxup 8mo ago
People dying because this guy's poll numbers were not great and he decided to start a war with no idea what he is doing. https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/255784560904773633?s=46 https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/255784560904773633?s=46
- stephenr 8mo ago
  Don't be so cynical. It's because he's a child rapist and wants a distraction. The poll numbers are a secondary concern at best.
burntoutgray 8mo ago
For a guy who craves a Nobel Peace Prize, why is he starting wars? The campaign promise was to stop needless wars. Like the story "The Emperors New Clothes" the media needs to call him out and very forcibly. Until then the sycophants are just going to admire his naked butt.
- cindyllm 8mo ago
  [dead]
- r721 8mo ago
  Quote from his message to Norway's PM: >Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper' for the US. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7mev35x2lo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7mev35x2lo
anigbrowl 8mo ago
Forget 'after' the war; unless Iran surrenders or undergoes a dramatic regime change (neither of which have more than 5% probability in my view) there is no way for the US to get a win condition without somehow taking custody of Iran's nuclear materiél. The tissue-thin casus belli here is that after we 'obliterated' their nuclear enrichment capacity 8 months ago, they are somehow back to being within weeks of having enough fissile material for a bomb. Since every Israeli-financed politician in the US (which is most of them) feels the need to reiterate that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon every 5 minutes to prevent their smartphone exploding we can't just bomb them for a while and then declare victory; we're now in the official position (per Rubio) of having to attack them preëmptively any time Israel feels like bombing them, and Israel seems to feel like bombing Iran as often as possible. There's no way out of this cycle without removing Iran's ability to maintain and enrich nuclear fuel and/or configure it into a bomb and there's no way of definitively doing that without taking possession of it. No matter how many bombs we drop on their (known) nuclear facilities, the results of such a campaign can be instantly obviated by an intelligence report claiming the existence of more. And there's simply no way of taking possession of the nuclear materials without a ground war, which is a near-certain disaster. I also doubt Trump and his coterie have seriously considered the possibility that if the Islamic Republic's back is absolutely against the wall, they're highly incentivized to launch a 'dirty' bomb using fissile material with conventional explosives. It doesn't have to do significant kinetic damage: if they drop a few missiles on Tel Aviv and/or Jerusalem and make it clear that they have a radioactive payload, the Israelis will cast away the small amount of strategic objectivity they have left. No matter what the government of Israel may say at that point, I cannot see the highly-propagandized Israeli population just deciding not to worry about being radioactively dusted.
MonkeyIsNull 8mo ago
Shocked. I'm truly shocked. Absolutely, completely and utterly shocked. Who woulda thought?

14 points by petethomas 8mo ago

tim-tday 8mo ago

Wait, wait. Isn’t that something you should have considered BEFOREHAND?!

Zigurd 8mo ago
Elon fired all those useless "beforehand" people.

codevark 8mo ago

[dead]

SilverElfin 8mo ago

He literally had no plan. The Iranian regime was evil, no doubt. But if you’re going to try to fix that you need a plan. Otherwise the vacancy will be filled. By bad people. I can’t believe this isn’t obvious.

motbus3 8mo ago
Why would he? There will never be a way to prove, but somehow, many people thinks he just needs to repay his campaign supporters. It is funny to see how there are seemingly fake ruses just for people to forget. Like with EM for example
anigbrowl 8mo ago
I had to laugh (bleakly) when someone asked him the other day who the US would prefer to see leading Iran instead of Khamenei and he admitted that all his preferred alternatives were dead. No way to know if it's true for the time being, but I saw someone claim the other day that Khamenei had convened meetings of the more moderate senior clergy at his residence in anticipation of the attack, increasing the probability of a hardliner being chosen as his successor. Though speculative, it seems plausible.
stephenr 8mo ago
> But if you’re going to try to fix that How about just stop interfering in the rest of the world. Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan. What's next for the electric boogaloo treatment? Korea or Vietnam? Where would you like to lose the next pointless war.
- JojoFatsani 8mo ago
  It’ll be Cuba
  - MonkeyIsNull 8mo ago
    > It’ll be Cuba Yes, who is taking bets? Gotta get money on the line.
    - clipsy 8mo ago
      > Yes, who is taking bets? Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026 Sure enough, the odds are surging!
JojoFatsani 8mo ago
His defense minister is an absolute lunatic media personality in way over his head who really thinks war is a video game. They’re using pew pews to try and drum up patriotism, all it’s going to do is drive up our gas prices. If there is a plan, it is to drive up gas prices to make fracked shale petroleum profitable again.
- Zigurd 8mo ago
  It kind of is a video game being played by a feeble angry 80yo button mashing, and a drunk.
ajewhere 8mo ago
"The Iranian regime was evil.." You are more evil by far. Deliberately orchestrating, or trying to, civil wars in Syria, Lybia, other countries. Now trying to do so in Iran. You are not just evil, it goes beyond.

duxup 8mo ago

People dying because this guy's poll numbers were not great and he decided to start a war with no idea what he is doing. https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/255784560904773633?s=46 https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/255784560904773633?s=46

stephenr 8mo ago
Don't be so cynical. It's because he's a child rapist and wants a distraction. The poll numbers are a secondary concern at best.

burntoutgray 8mo ago

For a guy who craves a Nobel Peace Prize, why is he starting wars? The campaign promise was to stop needless wars. Like the story "The Emperors New Clothes" the media needs to call him out and very forcibly. Until then the sycophants are just going to admire his naked butt.

cindyllm 8mo ago
[dead]
r721 8mo ago
Quote from his message to Norway's PM: >Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper' for the US. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7mev35x2lo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7mev35x2lo

anigbrowl 8mo ago

Forget 'after' the war; unless Iran surrenders or undergoes a dramatic regime change (neither of which have more than 5% probability in my view) there is no way for the US to get a win condition without somehow taking custody of Iran's nuclear materiél. The tissue-thin casus belli here is that after we 'obliterated' their nuclear enrichment capacity 8 months ago, they are somehow back to being within weeks of having enough fissile material for a bomb. Since every Israeli-financed politician in the US (which is most of them) feels the need to reiterate that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon every 5 minutes to prevent their smartphone exploding we can't just bomb them for a while and then declare victory; we're now in the official position (per Rubio) of having to attack them preëmptively any time Israel feels like bombing them, and Israel seems to feel like bombing Iran as often as possible. There's no way out of this cycle without removing Iran's ability to maintain and enrich nuclear fuel and/or configure it into a bomb and there's no way of definitively doing that without taking possession of it. No matter how many bombs we drop on their (known) nuclear facilities, the results of such a campaign can be instantly obviated by an intelligence report claiming the existence of more. And there's simply no way of taking possession of the nuclear materials without a ground war, which is a near-certain disaster. I also doubt Trump and his coterie have seriously considered the possibility that if the Islamic Republic's back is absolutely against the wall, they're highly incentivized to launch a 'dirty' bomb using fissile material with conventional explosives. It doesn't have to do significant kinetic damage: if they drop a few missiles on Tel Aviv and/or Jerusalem and make it clear that they have a radioactive payload, the Israelis will cast away the small amount of strategic objectivity they have left. No matter what the government of Israel may say at that point, I cannot see the highly-propagandized Israeli population just deciding not to worry about being radioactively dusted.

MonkeyIsNull 8mo ago

Shocked. I'm truly shocked. Absolutely, completely and utterly shocked. Who woulda thought?